Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
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Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

Monday
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales
US New Home Sales measures the annualized number of newly constructed single-family homes sold in a given month.
Released by the Census Bureau, it’s an important indicator of housing demand and economic health.
Rising new home sales suggest strong consumer confidence and economic growth, while a decline may signal economic slowdown or tighter lending conditions.
This data influences markets and provides insights into trends in the housing and construction sectors.
What to Expect
This data is unlikely to cause a market reaction.
Having said that, if New Home Sales are higher than expected, we would expect to see strength across the US assets (US stocks, dollar, and bond yields), as it would show signs of resilient housing demand, and therefore a strong consumer, which bolsters bets on strong economic growth.
If it were to come in lower than expected, we would expect weakness across the US assets.


Tuesday
10:00 ET
CB Consumer Confidence
The US CB Consumer Confidence measures the optimism or pessimism of American consumers about the economy.
Published monthly by the Conference Board, it is based on surveys assessing views on current economic conditions and future expectations, including business, labor market, and income prospects.
Higher confidence typically indicates increased consumer spending, a key driver of the US economy, while lower confidence signals potential economic caution.
It also has a component on year-ahead inflation expectations from the survey respondents within the report.
What to Expect
If headline Consumer Confidence comes in higher than expected, we expect to see strength across the dollar and US stocks, as it will help fight against any lingering recession fears.
If it comes in lower than expected, we would expect weakness in these assets.
If the inflation component comes in higher than expected, this could cause some weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar and bond yields, as traders may take it into account when pricing in the next US rate decision.
If the inflation expectations come in lower than expected, we could see some strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar and bond yields.
Keep in mind that the markets do not often react to the inflation expectations component within this report.


Wednesday
09:45 ET
Canadian Interest Rate
The Bank of Canada Rate Decision refers to the central bank’s decision on whether to raise, lower, or maintain the benchmark interest rate.
This decision is made during the BoC’s policy meetings, typically eight times a year, based on assessments of inflation, economic growth, and other financial conditions.
Changes to the interest rate influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and are a key tool in managing inflation and ensuring economic stability.
What to Expect
The BoC’s rate decisions have broad implications for the economy, affecting everything from mortgage rates to the Canadian dollar’s exchange rate.
The markets have been fluctuating between the possibility of a 25 or 50-bps cut from the BoC at this meeting.
A rate cut is likely to cause weakness in CAD and strength in Canadian stocks, though this reaction will be based on market expectations, as this underlines what is currently priced in by the markets.
Markets will also pay attention to the Rate Statement, which is released alongside the Rate Decision.
More hawkish tones (which could indicate pauses in rate cuts in the future) would likely cause strength in CAD and weakness in Canadian stocks.
In contrast, more dovish tones (indicating the potential for faster/steeper rate cuts in the future) could cause weakness in CAD and strength in Canadian stocks.

10:30 ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate
The US Interest Rate Decision is a policy announcement made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) during its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, typically held eight times a year.
The decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy.
Raising rates: Slows economic activity to curb inflation.
Lowering rates: Stimulates growth by making borrowing cheaper.
Holding rates steady: Indicates a balanced economic outlook, or an uncertainty on the future outlook.
The decision is based on economic indicators like inflation, employment, and growth, with significant implications for markets, businesses, and consumers. Markets closely follow the announcement and accompanying statements for clues about future policy.
FOMC Rate Statement
The release also contains the FOMC Rate Statement, which is a written announcement issued by the FOMC.
It provides the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and insights into its monetary policy stance.
The statement includes whether the federal funds rate is being raised, lowered, or held steady.
It discusses the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions, including growth, inflation, and employment trends.
It highlights the Fed’s goals, such as achieving maximum employment and stable inflation at around 2%.
Markets scrutinize the statement for changes in tone or language, as it signals the Fed’s outlook and potential future actions.
What to Expect
Markets and median analyst expectations expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 bps, from 4.75% to 4.5%.
In the unlikely event that rates are left unchanged, we would expect a large amount of weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as pricing in for the expected rate cut is undone and reversed.
But If the 25 bps cut is realized, attention will turn to the rate statement.
If the rate statement is more hawkish (underlines uncertainty about the strength of the jobs market and inflation return to target), this could indicate to the markets that the pace of rate cuts may slow down, which would be likely to cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar.
If the rate statement is more dovish (underlines increased confidence in inflation return to target, and satisfaction in the strength of the jobs market) this could confirm that the Fed can go ahead with further rate cuts, which would be likely to strengthen US stocks and weaken the dollar and government bond yields.


Thursday
08:30 ET
US GDP
The US GDP is the Gross Domestic Product growth rate for the first quarter of the year, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
This estimate incorporates the most comprehensive data available, including trade, business investment, and consumer spending, to provide the most accurate measurement of economic performance for the quarter.
The estimate often confirms or slightly adjusts earlier estimates.
This figure is monitored by policymakers, investors, and economists for trends in growth and potential implications for monetary policy.
This report also contains an inflation component, the US GDP Price Index.
It measures the overall change in prices for goods and services included in the Gross Domestic Product.
It reflects inflation or deflation within the economy over a given period.
Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the GDP Price Index includes all components of GDP (consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and net exports).
Often used to adjust nominal GDP to real GDP by removing the effects of price changes.
What to Expect
If headline GDP comes in higher than expected, we would expect strength across the US assets (US stocks, bond yields, and the dollar) as it shows strong growth in the US, which can bring investment into US government-backed assets and corporations.
If it comes in lower than expected, we would expect the opposite.
As for the inflation components (US GDP Price Index and the Core PCE), if these came in higher than expected, we would expect weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders reduce their bets on Fed rate cuts.
However, if they come in lower than expected, we would expect strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders would solidify/increase their bets on Fed rate cuts.

US Initial Jobless & Continuing Claims
The US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims report tracks unemployment insurance claims to gauge the health of the job market. Initial claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, indicating new job losses.
Continued claims reflect the number of individuals who remain unemployed and are still receiving benefits after their initial filing.
Together, these metrics provide timely insights into labor market conditions and potential economic shifts.
What to Expect
With employment in focus as one of the Fed’s dual mandates, this report has been garnering market attention.
A higher jobless claims number, indicating higher unemployment, would be likely to cause weakness across the US assets (dollar, stocks, and yields), as it feeds into the narrative of a hard landing/broader economic slowdown for the US economy as we come out of the tightening cycle.
A lower jobless claims number, indicating lower unemployment, would be likely to cause strength across the US assets, as it reassures the markets that the US economy may be able to exit the tightening cycle and enter the easing cycle without a recession/broader economic slowdown.


Friday
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a key measure of inflation, tracking the change in prices for goods and services purchased by households.
It is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Headline PCE includes all items, while Core PCE excludes food and energy prices for a more stable view of underlying inflation.
The Federal Reserve uses Core PCE as its preferred inflation gauge when setting monetary policy, aiming for a 2% annual target.
PCE is broader than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it accounts for changes in consumer behavior, such as substitutions, and includes a wider range of expenditures.
What to Expect
If PCE inflation comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders would be likely to pull back on their expectations for further rate cuts from the Fed.
If inflation comes in lower than expected, we would expect strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders would be likely to increase/solidify their bets on further rate cuts from the Fed.

Canadian GDP
Canadian GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in Canada over a specific period.
It is reported quarterly and annually, with a monthly GDP indicator showing short-term economic trends.
GDP is a key indicator of the economy’s health, with growth suggesting economic expansion and contraction signaling a slowdown.
It is broken down by industry and expenditure, highlighting the contributions of sectors like manufacturing, energy, and services.
What to Expect
If GDP comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see strength in CAD and CA stocks, whereas if it comes in lower than expected, we would expect weakness in these assets.