Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
For the February 10th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.
Wednesday 12th February
08:30 ET
US CPI for January
The US Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time.
It is a key indicator of inflation and is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, provides a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
CPI data influences Federal Reserve policy, financial markets, and economic decisions.
What to Expect
If US CPI comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders decrease their bets for Fed rate cuts this year in response to potentially stickier inflation.
If CPI comes in lower than expected, we would expected strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields, as this could cause traders to increase their bets on Fed rate cuts for this year.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
Thursday 13th February
08:30 ET
US PPI for January
The US Producer Price Index measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over time.
Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it tracks inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers.
The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, provides a clearer view of underlying price trends.
PPI is closely watched as an early indicator of consumer inflation and can influence Federal Reserve policy and market expectations.
What to Expect
If US PPI comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders decrease their bets for Fed rate cuts this year in response to potentially stickier inflation.
If PPI comes in lower than expected, we would expected strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields, as this could cause traders to increase their bets on Fed rate cuts for this year.
10:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits.
Initial Jobless Claims track new filings for unemployment insurance, providing a real-time indicator of labour market conditions.
Continued Jobless Claims reflect the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim, offering insight into longer-term joblessness.
Both data points are released weekly by the Department of Labor and are key indicators of economic health, influencing market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
What to Expect
The jobs market is part of the Fed’s dual mandate, and the Fed are on the look out for any meaningful weakening in the jobs market to potentially prompt a response with US interest rate cuts.
This means that if the Jobless Claims numbers come out meaningfully higher than expected (indicating higher unemployment) this could lead to weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as traders may take a weaker labor market as a sign that the Fed may intervene with rate cuts.
If jobless claims come in lower (indicating a lower unemployment) then this will reinforce the past data from the US which shows a resilient labor market, and would likely cause traders to reduce bets on Fed rate cuts, which could cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields.
Friday 14th February
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for January
US Retail Sales measure the total value of goods sold by retailers across the country, providing insight into consumer spending trends.
Released monthly by the US Census Bureau, it reflects changes in demand for a wide range of goods, from groceries to automobiles.
A higher-than-expected reading suggests strong consumer spending, which can boost economic growth and influence Federal Reserve policy.
A lower-than-expected reading may indicate weaker consumer demand, potentially signalling economic slowdown.
Retail Sales are a key driver of GDP, as consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the US economy.
What to Expect
If retail sales come in higher than expected, this could show that consumers are still resilient in the face of higher interest rates, and reduce the urgency for further rate cuts from the Fed. This repricing would be likely to cause weakness in US stocks, and strength in the dollar and government bond yields.
If it comes in lower than expected, this could show that the US consumer is in need of stimulation in the form of rate cuts from the Fed, which could cause strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields.
