Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

For the February 24th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session

Tuesday 25th February
10:00 ET
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for February
The US CB Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey conducted by the Conference Board that measures consumer sentiment about the economy. It is based on survey responses from households regarding current business and labor market conditions (Present Situation Index) and expectations for income, business, and employment over the next six months (Expectations Index).
A higher reading suggests strong consumer confidence, which can lead to increased spending and economic growth.
A lower reading indicates weaker confidence, potentially signalling slower consumer spending and economic uncertainty.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher Confidence → Consumers are optimistic, suggesting strong spending and economic growth → Bullish for stocks (especially retail, travel, and consumer discretionary sectors).
Lower Confidence → Weaker sentiment may indicate lower spending and potential economic slowdown → Bearish for stocks (especially consumer-focused companies).
US Dollar
Higher Confidence → Signals economic strength, potentially supporting USD appreciation as investors expect higher growth.
Lower Confidence → Weak sentiment can weigh on the dollar, especially if it raises concerns about future rate cuts by the Fed.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher Confidence → Stronger economy may lead to higher bond yields, as investors expect less Fed easing or potential tightening.
Lower Confidence → May drive lower bond yields, as weaker sentiment increases expectations for Fed rate cuts and demand for safe-haven assets.

Wednesday 26th February
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for January
US New Home Sales measures the annualized number of newly constructed single-family homes sold in a given month.
It is a key indicator of housing market strength and overall economic health, as higher sales suggest strong consumer demand and confidence, while lower sales may indicate economic uncertainty or affordability challenges.
The report is released monthly by the US Census Bureau and is considered a leading indicator for the housing sector and broader economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher Sales signals strong housing demand and economic growth, which is bullish for homebuilders, construction, and financial stocks (e.g., mortgage lenders).
Lower Sales suggests weaker consumer confidence or higher borrowing costs is bearish for housing-related stocks and may signal broader economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Higher Sales → Indicates economic strength, supporting USD appreciation, especially if it reinforces expectations of higher rates.
Lower Sales → Could weigh on the dollar if it signals slowing growth and increases expectations of Fed rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher Sales → May push yields higher, as strong demand could lead to inflationary pressures and reduce expectations of Fed easing.
Lower Sales → Could lead to lower yields, as weaker housing demand raises concerns about economic slowdown and potential Fed cuts.

Thursday 27th February
08:30 ET
US GDP Q4 Second Estimate
US GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within the United States over a specific period. It is the broadest indicator of economic activity and growth, reported on a quarterly basis by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
GDP is often analysed in three forms: headline GDP, which shows overall growth; real GDP, which is adjusted for inflation; and GDP components, which break down contributions from consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and trade.
What to Expect
US Indices
Strong GDP growth can boost equity markets, as it signals a healthy economy and strong corporate earnings. However, if growth is too high, markets may worry about Fed tightening, which could weigh on stocks.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected GDP print typically supports the USD, as it suggests economic resilience and may influence Fed policy. Weak GDP can pressure the USD lower.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher GDP growth can push bond yields up, as it raises expectations for inflation and tighter monetary policy. Weak growth can lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate rate cuts or seek safe-haven assets.

US Durable Goods January Prelim
US Durable Goods Orders measure the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for long-lasting goods (those expected to last three years or more), such as automobiles, appliances, and aircraft. The report, released monthly by the US Census Bureau, provides insight into business investment trends and consumer demand. A core measure, which excludes volatile transportation orders, is often used for a clearer view of underlying demand.
What to Expect
US Indices
Strong durable goods orders can lift equities, particularly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, signaling robust business spending. Weak orders may raise concerns about slowing economic activity.
US Dollar
A positive surprise in durable goods orders can support the USD by suggesting economic strength, while a decline may weigh on the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher durable goods orders can push yields up, as they indicate stronger economic momentum and potential inflationary pressures. Weak data may lower yields by increasing expectations for monetary easing.

US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Indices
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.

Friday 29th February
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for January
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by US consumers.
Released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge due to its broad coverage and ability to adjust for changing consumer behavior.
The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, is closely watched for underlying inflation trends.
What to Expect
US Indices
Lower-than-expected PCE inflation can boost equities by reinforcing expectations of Fed easing, while higher inflation may weigh on stocks due to concerns about prolonged tight monetary policy.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected PCE report can support the USD by increasing the likelihood of tighter Fed policy, whereas softer inflation data may weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher PCE inflation can push yields up as markets price in fewer rate cuts or potential tightening, while lower inflation may lead to lower yields due to expectations of monetary easing.