Morning Juice – US Session Prep

Good Morning Traders!

Sentiment
A gauge of the dollar rose to its highest in a week and Treasuries declined as traders booked profits on a drop in yields to their lowest levels of the year. Investors are waiting to see whether US data later today will add to the growing view that an economic slowdown is on the way.

Trump has made it clear that Europe needs to defend itself, and the continent’s response to the US threats of withdrawal is starting to take shape.

Oil fluctuated near the lowest closing level in 11 weeks as Trump’s tariff plans became murkier.

Investors in US government bonds are starting to bet the Fed will soon need to pivot from worrying about sticky inflation to fretting about slowing economic growth.

Docket
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate Forecast 2.3%, Previous 2.3% Range 2.8%/1.9%
US Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 221k, Previous 219k Range 250k/215k
US Continued Jobless Claims Forecast 1.8705M, Previous 1.869M Range 1.9M/1.813M
US GDP Price Index Forecast 2.2%, Previous 2.2% Range 2.5%/2.2%
US Core PCE Prices Prelim Forecast 2.5%, Previous 2.5% Range 2.5%/2.4%
US Durable Goods Forecast 2%, Previous -2.2% Range 6.5%/-2%

10:30 ET
EIA Natural Gas Change Forecast -271 BCF, Previous -196 BCF Range -240 BCF/-278 BCF

Speakers & Events
08:15 ET
Fed’s Barkin Speaks (repeats speech on inflation)

09:15 ET
Fed’s Schmid remarks on monetary policy & economic outlook. Text & Q&A expected

10:00 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks on novel activity supervision, like crypto assets. Text & Q&A expected

11:45 ET
Fed’s Bowman speaks on community banking. Text & Q&A expected

13:15 ET
Fed’s Hammack gives a keynote speech on financial stability. Text & Q&A expected

15:15 ET
Fed’s Harker Speaks on economic outlook. Text & Q&A expected

Trump’s Schedule