Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
For the March 3rd week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session
Monday 3rd March
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI February Final
The S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector.
It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across various industries and assesses factors such as new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong PMI (above expectations) signals manufacturing growth, boosting business confidence and potentially driving equity markets higher, particularly in industrial and cyclical sectors.
A weak PMI (below expectations) suggests economic slowdown, which can lead to a sell-off in stocks, especially in manufacturing-heavy sectors.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected PMI suggests strong economic activity, increasing expectations for tighter monetary policy and strengthening the dollar.
A lower-than-expected PMI raises concerns about economic weakness, potentially leading to a weaker dollar as investors anticipate rate cuts or slower growth.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong PMI may push yields higher, as it suggests economic strength and reduces demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries.
A weak PMI may lead to lower yields, as investors move into bonds for safety, expecting a more dovish Federal Reserve policy.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly economic indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that tracks the performance of the US manufacturing sector.
It is based on a survey of purchasing managers across industries, measuring new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
Unlike the S&P Manufacturing PMI, the ISM report has a longer history and is more closely watched by markets.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong ISM Manufacturing PMI (above expectations) signals economic growth, boosting equities, particularly industrial and cyclical stocks.
A weak ISM PMI (below expectations) suggests economic slowdown, leading to a sell-off in manufacturing-heavy stocks and broader market concerns.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected ISM PMI suggests strong manufacturing activity, reinforcing economic resilience and strengthening the dollar.
A lower-than-expected ISM PMI raises concerns about economic weakness, which can lead to dollar depreciation as rate cut expectations rise.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong ISM PMI may push yields higher, as it signals economic strength and reduces demand for safe-haven Treasuries.
A weak ISM PMI can drive yields lower, as investors seek safety in bonds and anticipate a more dovish Fed stance.
Wednesday 5th March
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for February
The ADP Employment Change report is a monthly release that estimates private-sector job growth in the US It is published by ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab and serves as a preview for the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released later in the week.
While the ADP report often differs from NFP, it provides insight into labor market trends by tracking job additions across businesses of different sizes and industries.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong ADP report signals robust labor market conditions, supporting consumer spending and boosting stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors.
A weak ADP report raises concerns about economic slowdown, pressuring equities, especially those sensitive to economic growth (e.g., industrials, financials).
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected ADP print suggests economic strength, increasing the odds of tighter monetary policy and boosting the dollar.
A weaker-than-expected ADP print fuels rate cut expectations, potentially leading to USD depreciation.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong ADP report can push yields higher, as it signals labor market strength and reduces demand for safe-haven Treasuries.
A weak ADP report may drive yields lower, as investors anticipate softer economic growth and potential Fed easing.
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for January
The US Factory Orders report measures the monthly change in new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for both durable and non-durable goods.
Released by the US Census Bureau, it provides insight into business spending trends and the strength of the manufacturing sector.
Since it includes both durable and non-durable goods orders, it offers a more comprehensive look at manufacturing demand than the Durable Goods Orders report, which is released earlier.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected factory orders indicate rising demand and economic expansion, boosting industrial and manufacturing stocks.
Weaker-than-expected orders suggest slowing business activity, weighing on cyclical stocks and overall market sentiment.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected increase in factory orders signals economic resilience, potentially supporting USD appreciation.
A weaker print can raise concerns about slowing growth, leading to a softer dollar as markets price in more accommodative monetary policy.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong factory orders report suggests economic growth momentum, which may lead to higher bond yields as investors anticipate firmer inflation and tighter monetary policy.
A weak report signals potential economic softness, driving investors toward Treasuries and lowering yields as demand for safe-haven assets increases.
US ISM Services PMI for February
The ISM Services PMI measures business activity in the US services sector, which accounts for around 80% of US GDP.
Released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the report is based on a survey of purchasing managers in industries like finance, retail, healthcare, and hospitality.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
The report includes key subcomponents such as business activity, new orders, employment, and prices, offering insight into economic momentum and inflationary pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI suggests robust demand and economic resilience, boosting equities, particularly consumer-focused and service-based sectors.
A weaker print raises concerns about slowing economic growth, weighing on risk assets and cyclical stocks.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected reading may reinforce confidence in US economic strength, supporting USD appreciation.
A weaker print suggests economic softness, potentially leading to USD weakness, especially if markets anticipate looser monetary policy.
US Government Bond Yields
A strong ISM Services PMI could signal continued economic expansion and inflationary risks, leading to higher bond yields as markets price in fewer rate cuts.
A weak report may suggest economic deceleration, prompting lower yields as investors seek safe-haven assets and anticipate more policy easing.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
14:00 ET
Fed’s Beige Book
The Beige Book is a qualitative economic report published eight times per year by the Federal Reserve.
It provides anecdotal insights into current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts, covering consumer spending, labor markets, wages, inflation, business activity, and overall economic sentiment.
Unlike hard data releases, the Beige Book compiles business and industry feedback, offering a real-time snapshot of economic trends ahead of key Fed meetings.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A positive Beige Book (showing economic resilience and strong business conditions) can boost stocks, particularly cyclical and consumer-driven sectors.
A weaker Beige Book (highlighting economic slowdown or labor market softening) could lead to equity weakness, especially in growth-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A strong report (highlighting solid growth and inflation risks) can fuel USD strength, as it suggests the Fed may maintain a less dovish stance.
A dovish Beige Book (indicating slowing economic momentum) may lead to USD weakness, especially if it strengthens the case for rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
Stronger economic conditions in the Beige Book may push bond yields higher, as markets anticipate less easing or even policy tightening if inflation risks persist.
Weaker conditions (such as slowing job growth and softer demand) can drive lower yields, as investors price in a more accommodative Fed stance.
Thursday 6th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Indices
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.
Friday 7th March
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for February
US Nonfarm Payrolls
US Nonfarm Payrolls, commonly referred to as NFP, is a key economic indicator published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly basis.
It represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding farm employees, government workers, and non-profit organization employees.
The NFP report provides insights into the overall health of the labor market, reflecting changes in employment levels.
The data is closely watched by policymakers, economists, and investors for its impact on financial markets and economic policy decisions.
US Unemployment Rate
The US Unemployment Rate is a widely tracked economic indicator that measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force.
The Unemployment Rate can differ from the Nonfarm Payrolls data due to differences in their definitions and methods of measurement.
While NFP represents the total number of paid workers in the US, excluding certain categories like farm and government employees, the Unemployment Rate considers the percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking but unable to find employment and is conducted via household surveys as opposed to payrolls data.
US Average Earnings YoY
US Average Earnings Year-over-Year is an economic indicator that measures the annual percentage change in the average earnings of all non-farm employees in the United States.
Average earnings include wages and salaries, and the YoY comparison helps assess the rate of change in workers’ compensation over a one-year period.
Positive growth in Average Earnings YoY is indicative of increasing income levels, while negative growth suggests a decline in average earnings. This data point gives insights into wage trends and their implications for consumer spending and inflation.
What to Expect
The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the most highly monitored employment indicator by both traders and policymakers.
Markets have been reacting to employment reports for their effect on the broader economy, as well as its potential impact on monetary policy, though with the current backdrop of inflation, we expect the markets will respond to any changes in Interest Rate Futures that may come from this release.
With that being said, if Nonfarm Payrolls come in higher than expected, and/or the Unemployment Rate comes in lower than expected, we would be likely to see weakness in US stocks and strength in the dollar and government bond yields, as this would indicate that the jobs market is not showing signs that could lead the FOMC to intervene with faster rate cuts.
If Nonfatrm Payrolls comes in lower than expected, and/or the Unemployment Rate comes in higher than expected, we would expect to see strength in US stocks, and weakness in the dollar and government bond yields, as this could show that the jobs market is beginning to cool off more than the Fed would like, which could lead to increased chances of the US central bank stepping in to supply stimulation through steeper/faster rate cuts in order to make sure the jobs market does not cool down too much.
Keep in mind that the markets will be balancing between the data’s effect on the future of monetary policy, and its effects on the broader economy, which can cause variations/volatility in the reactions.
