Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
For the March 10th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.
Tuesday 11th March
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for January
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is a monthly report published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that measures the number of job vacancies in the U.S. economy. It provides insights into labor demand by tracking job openings, hires, and separations (quits, layoffs, and discharges).
What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected JOLTS report suggests strong labor demand, which can indicate economic growth but may also fuel inflation concerns. This could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially weighing on stocks (especially growth stocks).
US Dollar
A strong JOLTS report can boost the US dollar if it reinforces expectations of higher interest rates. Conversely, a weaker report may lead to dollar depreciation due to potential economic slowdown concerns.
US Government Bonds
If job openings are high, it could suggest continued wage pressures and inflation, possibly leading to a rise in Treasury yields as investors anticipate Fed rate hikes.
Wednesday 12th March
08:30 ET
US CPI for February
The Consumer Price Index is a key inflation indicator published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time.
CPI is based on a basket of goods that includes categories such as food, energy, housing, healthcare, and transportation.
CPI is reported in two main forms:
Headline CPI – Measures overall inflation, including volatile items like food and energy.
Core CPI – Excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected CPI can trigger fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, or at least less easing than the markets had expected, often leading to a stock market selloff, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like tech.
A lower-than-expected CPI may ease inflation concerns, potentially boosting equities.
US Dollar
A high CPI reading strengthens the US dollar as traders expect the Fed to keep rates high.
A low CPI reading can weaken the dollar as rate hike expectations decline.
US Government Bonds
Rising CPI can lead to higher Treasury yields, as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy.
Lower inflation readings could result in falling yields as expectations of rate hikes diminish.
10:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
Thursday 13th March
08:30 ET
US PPI for February
The Producer Price Index is a monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It tracks the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over time.
Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects prices paid by consumers, PPI measures wholesale and business-level inflation at different stages of production (raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products).
PPI is reported in different forms:
Headline PPI – Includes all categories, including food and energy, which can be volatile.
Core PPI – Excludes food and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying producer price trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected PPI suggests rising input costs for businesses, which may squeeze profit margins and lead to stock market declines, especially in sectors with thin margins.
A lower-than-expected PPI may signal easing cost pressures, boosting equities.
US Government Bonds
Rising PPI can indicate future consumer inflation (as businesses may pass costs to consumers), leading to higher Treasury yields due to expectations of Fed tightening.
Softer PPI can lower inflation fears, keeping yields in check.
US Dollar
A strong PPI reading can strengthen the US dollar, as it raises expectations for Fed rate hikes, or at least reduces expectations of Fed easing.
A weaker PPI may weaken the dollar if it suggests easing inflation and less aggressive monetary policy.
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.
Friday 14th March
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey
Conducted by the University of Michigan, the survey gauges consumers’ attitudes and expectations regarding personal finances, business conditions, and overall economic prospects.
The survey results are presented as an index, with higher values indicating greater consumer confidence.
In this report, respondents can also give their forecasts for 1-year and 5-10-year ahead inflation expectations, which the markets sometimes pay attention to.
What to Expect
When it comes to the headline sentiment read, a higher consumer sentiment number at the moment would be seen as bullish for US stocks and the dollar, as it indicates that the consumer is feeling good about the economic environment, which reduces the chances for a hard landing coming out of this Fed tightening cycle.
When it comes to inflation expectations, the markets will want to see these coming in lower than expected, which would increase confidence in the Fed’s ability to reduce rates and start to stimulate the areas of the economy that have shown weakness.
This would likely cause strength in US stocks.
