Morning Juice – US Session Prep
Morning, Traders!
Sentiment
The dollar rose versus all G10 peers except the yen, while Treasuries edged lower ahead of US PPI.
US stock futures pared most of their losses while concerns over a US government shutdown are not seen as having a major market impact
Investors are getting overly confident that Germany’s parliament will pass a constitutional amendment to enable the government to ramp up fiscal spending, raising the risk of a sudden rally in the bond market if the plan is rejected, according to UBS.
US equities are pricing in a recession risk much bigger than credit markets, leaving room for a positive surprise, according to JPMorgan strategists.
Docket
08:30 ET
US PPI for February
YoY – Forecast: 3.3% | Prior: 3.5% | Range: 3.4% / 2.8%
MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.4% | Range: 0.6% / -0.1%
Core YoY – Forecast: 3.5% | Prior: 3.6% | Range: 3.6% / 3.3%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.4% / 0%
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 225k | Prior: 221k | Range: 250k / 215k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.888M | Prior: 1.897M | Range: 1.912M / 1.85M
11:30 ET
US sells $75 bln 4-Week Bills
12:00 ET
Fed Q4 Flow of Funds Report
13:00 ET
US sells $22 bln 30-Year Bonds
Speakers
12:00 ET
ECB Governing Council member Holzmann, next central bank Governor Martin Kocher speak at conference on energy transition in Vienna.
13:30 ET
ECB Governing Council members Villeroy and Nagel join panel discussion on Europe’s economy.
Trump’s Schedule
Good luck!
