Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

For the March 17th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.

Monday 17th of March
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for February
US Retail Sales refer to the total sales of goods and services by retail businesses in the United States, typically measured monthly by the Census Bureau.
This data provides insight into consumer spending trends, which make up a significant portion (around 70%) of the U.S. economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong retail sales can boost investor confidence, particularly in consumer-related stocks (retailers, e-commerce, consumer goods).
Weak sales may raise concerns about economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Strong retail sales often support a stronger dollar, as they signal economic resilience, while weak data could lead to a weaker dollar due to growth concerns.
US Government Bonds
Rising sales might push bond yields higher as investors anticipate tighter Fed policy, while weaker sales could have the opposite effect.
Federal Reserve Policy
Higher-than-expected retail sales may signal inflationary pressures, potentially leading to tighter monetary policy (higher interest rates).
Lower sales could increase the likelihood of rate cuts to stimulate spending.

Tuesday 18th of March
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for February
US Housing Starts measure the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a given period, typically reported monthly by the Census Bureau.
This data is a key indicator of economic health as it reflects demand for housing, builder confidence, and broader economic conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong housing starts can boost homebuilder stocks, construction materials, and related sectors (e.g., banks, home improvement retailers). Weak data may weigh on these sectors, signaling slower economic growth.
US Dollar
A strong housing market can support the dollar, reflecting economic resilience, while weak data may lead to a softer dollar as it raises concerns about economic slowdown.
US Government Bonds
Higher housing starts may indicate economic strength, potentially leading to higher bond yields as investors expect tighter monetary policy. Lower housing activity could push yields down due to growth concerns.

Canadian CPI for February
The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time.
It is a key indicator of inflation, published monthly by Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada closely monitors CPI to guide interest rate decisions.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
Higher-than-expected CPI could weigh on equities, especially interest rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials, as it may prompt tighter monetary policy.
Lower CPI might support stocks by increasing the chances of rate cuts.
Canadian Dollar
A stronger CPI reading could boost the Canadian dollar (CAD), as it may lead to higher interest rates.
A weaker CPI could pressure the currency, signaling lower inflation and potential rate cuts.
Canadian Government Bonds
Rising inflation may push bond yields higher as investors expect tighter monetary policy, while lower CPI could lead to declining yields due to easing inflation concerns.

09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for February
US Industrial Production measures the total output of factories, mines, and utilities in the country.
Published monthly by the Federal Reserve, it is a key indicator of economic activity and manufacturing strength.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong industrial production can boost manufacturing, industrial, and energy stocks, signaling economic strength. Weak data may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
A rise in industrial production can support the dollar, reflecting economic resilience. A decline may weaken the dollar as it suggests reduced economic momentum.
US Government Bonds
Higher production levels may push bond yields up, as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy. Lower output could lead to falling yields, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown.

Wednesday 19th of March
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision & Summary of Economic Projections
The US Interest Rate Decision is set by the Federal Reserve, determining the benchmark federal funds rate.
Alongside this, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provides forecasts on GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and future interest rate expectations (dot plot).
These are critical indicators of monetary policy direction.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the Fed signals a willingness to cut rates soon, equities—especially growth sectors like technology—could rise.
However, if the Fed maintains a cautious stance, keeping rates higher for longer, stocks may face pressure.
US Dollar
A more dovish outlook, indicating potential rate cuts, could weaken the dollar.
If the Fed signals that rates will stay unchanged for an extended period, the dollar may remain strong.
US Government Bonds
If rate cuts appear more likely, bond yields may decline as investors anticipate looser monetary conditions.
A more patient Fed could keep yields elevated.

Thursday 20th of March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bonds
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for February
US Existing Home Sales measure the number of previously owned homes sold during the month.
This report, published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is a key indicator of housing market health and broader consumer confidence.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong home sales can boost real estate stocks, home improvement retailers, and mortgage lenders. Weak sales may weigh on these sectors, signaling softer consumer demand.
US Dollar
A resilient housing market can support the dollar, reflecting economic strength. A slowdown in sales may weaken the dollar if it signals broader economic softness.
US Government Bonds
Higher home sales may push bond yields up, as they suggest economic resilience. Weak sales could lead to lower yields, reflecting potential economic cooling.