Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

For the March 24th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.

Monday 24th March
08:30 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI March Prelim
The US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI are key indicators of economic activity, measuring business conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors.
A PMI above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
These reports provide insight into business sentiment, employment trends, and inflation pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong PMI readings can boost industrial, tech, and consumer stocks by signaling economic growth. Weak data may weigh on equities, especially cyclical sectors, as it raises concerns about slowing demand.
US Dollar
Higher PMI figures can strengthen the dollar, reflecting economic resilience. A weaker reading may put pressure on the dollar as it increases the likelihood of slower growth or future rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong PMI data could push bond yields higher, as it suggests sustained economic momentum. A slowdown in PMI readings may lead to lower yields, signaling potential economic softening.

Tuesday 25th March
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for March
The US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.
A higher reading suggests stronger consumer optimism, which can drive spending, while a decline may indicate caution about the economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher consumer confidence can boost retail, travel, and discretionary stocks, as it signals strong consumer spending. A decline may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Strong confidence data can support the dollar, reflecting economic resilience. A weaker reading may pressure the dollar, suggesting slowing consumer activity.
US Government Bonds
Rising confidence may push bond yields higher, as it reduces recession concerns. Weak confidence could lead to lower yields, as investors anticipate potential economic softening.

Wednesday 26th March
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods February Prelim
US Durable Goods Orders measure new orders placed with manufacturers for long-lasting goods (products expected to last three years or more).
This report, published by the Census Bureau, provides insight into business investment and consumer demand for big-ticket items.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong durable goods data can boost industrial, manufacturing, and transportation stocks, signaling business confidence. Weak orders may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Higher orders can strengthen the dollar, reflecting economic resilience. A decline may put pressure on the dollar as it suggests weaker business investment.
US Government Bonds
Strong durable goods orders could push bond yields higher, as they signal continued economic momentum. Weak data may lead to lower yields, reflecting softer business investment trends.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.

Thursday 27th March
08:30 ET
US GDP & Price Index QoQ Q4 3rd Estimate
The US Gross Domestic Product Report measures the overall economic output of the country on a quarterly basis, providing a broad view of economic growth.
The GDP Price Index tracks inflation within the economy by measuring changes in prices for all goods and services included in GDP. Both are key indicators of economic health and inflation trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong GDP growth can boost equities, particularly cyclical sectors like industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary. Weak growth may weigh on stocks, raising concerns about an economic slowdown.
US Dollar
A strong GDP and rising price index can support the dollar, as they signal economic resilience and possible prolonged higher interest rates. Weak GDP or lower inflationary pressures may weaken the dollar.
US Government Bonds
Higher GDP growth and a rising price index may push bond yields higher, as they increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy. Slower growth or lower inflation could lead to declining yields, reflecting expectations of a more accommodative Fed stance.

US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bonds
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.

Friday 28th March
08:30 ET
US PCE for February
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index measures inflation based on changes in consumer spending. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, particularly the Core PCE (which excludes food and energy).
A higher reading signals stronger inflation, potentially influencing Fed policy decisions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected PCE inflation could pressure equities, especially growth stocks, as it may delay potential Fed rate cuts. A lower reading could boost stocks by increasing expectations of monetary easing.
US Dollar
Strong PCE data can support the dollar, reinforcing expectations of a more prolonged higher-rate environment. Weak inflation may weigh on the dollar as it raises the likelihood of future rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Rising PCE inflation may push bond yields higher, as investors anticipate tighter Fed policy. A softer reading could lead to lower yields, reflecting reduced inflation concerns and potential rate cuts.

US Consumer Spending for February
US Consumer Spending measures the total value of goods and services purchased by individuals. It is a key driver of economic growth, accounting for nearly 70% of US GDP.
This report, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), provides insight into economic momentum and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong consumer spending can boost retail, travel, and discretionary stocks, signaling economic resilience. Weak spending may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about slowing demand.
US Dollar
Higher spending levels can support the dollar, as they indicate economic strength. A decline in spending may put pressure on the dollar, signaling softer consumer demand.
US Government Bonds
Rising consumer spending may push bond yields higher, as it suggests continued economic expansion. Weak spending data could lead to lower yields, reflecting concerns about a slowdown.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations March Final
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey measures consumer confidence regarding economic conditions, while the Inflation Expectations component reflects consumers’ outlook on future price increases.
Both are key indicators of consumer behaviour and potential inflation trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher sentiment can boost consumer discretionary and retail stocks, signaling strong consumer confidence.
Weak sentiment may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about reduced spending.
US Dollar
Strong sentiment and rising inflation expectations can support the dollar, as they may signal economic resilience and potential for prolonged higher interest rates.
Weak sentiment or lower inflation expectations could weaken the dollar.
US Government Bonds
Higher sentiment and inflation expectations may push bond yields up, as investors anticipate a tighter Fed stance.
Lower sentiment or easing inflation expectations could lead to lower yields, reflecting a more dovish outlook.