Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)
For the March 31st week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.
Tuesday 1st April
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI March Final
The US S&P Manufacturing PMI measures business activity in the manufacturing sector, tracking new orders, output, employment, and pricing trends.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This index provides insight into the manufacturing sector’s health and broader economic conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong Manufacturing PMI can boost industrial, materials, and manufacturing stocks, reflecting business confidence. A weaker reading may weigh on these sectors, signaling slowing demand.
US Dollar
Higher PMI readings can support the dollar, as they indicate economic resilience. A weaker reading may pressure the dollar, increasing expectations of economic slowdown and potential rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong manufacturing data may push bond yields higher, as it suggests economic strength and potential inflationary pressures. A weaker reading could lead to lower yields, reflecting softer growth expectations.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI measures business activity in the manufacturing sector, including new orders, production, employment, and supplier deliveries.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. This report is a key gauge of industrial sector health and broader economic trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong Manufacturing PMI can boost industrial, materials, and manufacturing stocks, signaling economic resilience. A weaker reading may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
Higher PMI readings can support the dollar, as they indicate economic strength and potential for prolonged higher interest rates. A weaker PMI may pressure the dollar, increasing expectations of future rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong manufacturing data may push bond yields higher, as it signals economic expansion and potential inflationary pressures. A weaker reading could lead to lower yields, reflecting economic slowdown concerns.
US JOLTS Job Openings for February
The US JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) Report measures the number of job openings, hires, and separations in the labor market.
It provides insight into labor demand and workforce dynamics, helping gauge overall economic strength.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A high number of job openings can boost equities, particularly in consumer and financial sectors, as it signals strong labor demand. A decline may weigh on stocks, raising concerns about slowing economic activity.
US Dollar
Strong job openings can support the dollar, as they suggest a resilient labor market and potential for prolonged higher interest rates. Fewer openings may weaken the dollar, increasing expectations of future rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
A high level of job openings may push bond yields higher, as it suggests tight labor conditions and potential wage inflation. A lower reading could lead to declining yields, reflecting a cooling labor market.
Wednesday 2nd April
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for March
The US ADP Employment Change report measures the monthly change in private-sector employment, based on payroll data from businesses.
It provides an early indication of labor market trends ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong job growth may boost equities, particularly in consumer and financial sectors, as it signals economic resilience. Weak employment data could weigh on stocks, raising concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
Higher-than-expected job gains can strengthen the dollar, as they suggest a strong labor market and potentially prolonged higher interest rates. Weak data may pressure the dollar, increasing expectations of rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong employment data may push bond yields higher, as it reduces recession concerns and suggests tighter Fed policy. Weaker data could lead to lower yields, reflecting expectations of a more dovish stance.
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for February
The US Factory Orders report measures the dollar value of new orders for manufactured goods, including both durable and nondurable goods. This data, published by the Census Bureau, provides insight into business demand and the strength of the manufacturing sector.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong factory orders can boost industrial, manufacturing, and materials stocks, signaling business confidence. Weak orders may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about slowing economic activity.
US Dollar
Higher factory orders can support the dollar, reflecting economic strength. A decline may pressure the dollar, suggesting weaker business investment.
US Government Bonds
Rising factory orders may push bond yields higher, as they indicate economic expansion. Weak orders could lead to lower yields, reflecting softer business demand and potential economic slowdown.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
Thursday 3rd April
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bonds
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.
09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI March Final
The US S&P Services PMI measures business activity, new orders, employment, and pricing trends in the services sector.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This index provides insight into the health of the services sector, which is a major driver of US economic activity.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong Services PMI can boost consumer discretionary, travel, and financial stocks, reflecting robust demand. Weak data may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Higher PMI readings can support the dollar, as they signal economic resilience. A decline may pressure the dollar, increasing expectations of a weaker economy or potential rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong PMI data could push bond yields higher, as it suggests continued economic expansion. A weaker reading may lead to lower yields, reflecting concerns about slowing growth.
10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for March
The US ISM Services PMI measures business activity, new orders, employment, and pricing trends in the services sector.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Since services make up a significant portion of the US economy, this index is a key gauge of economic health.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A strong Services PMI can boost consumer discretionary, travel, and financial stocks, signaling robust economic activity. Weak data may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about slowing growth.
US Dollar
Higher PMI readings can support the dollar, reflecting economic strength. A decline may pressure the dollar, as it increases the likelihood of slower growth or future rate cuts.
US Government BondsStrong PMI data could push bond yields higher, as it suggests continued economic expansion. A weaker reading may lead to lower yields, signaling potential economic softening.
Friday 4th April
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for March
The US Employment Situation Report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides a comprehensive snapshot of the labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Measures the net change in employment, excluding farm workers, government employees, and certain other sectors. It is a key indicator of job growth and economic strength.
Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work. A rising rate can signal economic weakness, while a falling rate suggests a strong labor market.
Average Hourly Earnings: Tracks wage growth, providing insight into inflationary pressures and consumer purchasing power.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong job growth can boost equities, especially in consumer-driven sectors. However, too strong data may raise concerns about prolonged higher interest rates, weighing on rate-sensitive stocks like tech.
US Dollar
Higher-than-expected job gains and wage growth can strengthen the dollar, as they may signal economic resilience and potential Fed tightening. Weak data may pressure the dollar, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Strong employment data can push bond yields higher, as it reduces recession risks and suggests tighter Fed policy. Weaker data may lead to lower yields, signaling economic slowdown concerns.
