Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

For the April 7th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the US Session.

Wednesday 9th April
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes for the March Meeting
The FOMC Meeting Minutes provide a detailed record of the Federal Reserve’s discussions during its latest policy meeting. They offer insights into policymakers’ views on economic conditions, inflation, and potential future interest rate decisions. Markets analyze the minutes for any shifts in tone that could signal changes in monetary policy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A hawkish tone, suggesting rates may stay higher for longer, could weigh on equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors like technology. A dovish tone, indicating potential rate cuts, may boost stocks.
US Dollar
If the Fed signals concerns about inflation and maintains a restrictive stance, the dollar could strengthen. If the minutes suggest policymakers are leaning toward easing, the dollar may weaken.
US Government Bonds
A more hawkish Fed could push bond yields higher, as investors anticipate prolonged tight monetary policy. A dovish outlook may lead to lower yields, reflecting expectations of rate cuts.

Thursday 10th April
08:30 ET
US CPI for March
The Consumer Price Index is a key inflation indicator published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
It measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. CPI is based on a basket of goods that includes categories such as food, energy, housing, healthcare, and transportation.
CPI is reported in two main forms:
Headline CPI – Measures overall inflation, including volatile items like food and energy.
Core CPI – Excludes food and energy prices to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected CPI can trigger fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, or at least less easing than the markets were expecting, often leading to a stock market selloff, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like tech.
A lower-than-expected CPI may ease inflation concerns, potentially boosting equities.
US Dollar
A high CPI reading strengthens the U.S. dollar as traders expect the Fed to keep rates high.
A low CPI reading can weaken the dollar as rate hike expectations decline.
US Government Bonds
Rising CPI can lead to higher Treasury yields, as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy.
Lower inflation readings could result in falling yields as expectations of rate hikes diminish.

Friday 11th April
08:30 ET
US PPI for March
Producer Price Index is a monthly inflation measure published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It tracks the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over time. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects prices paid by consumers, PPI measures wholesale and business-level inflation at different stages of production (raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products).
PPI is reported in different forms:
Headline PPI – Includes all categories, including food and energy, which can be volatile.
Core PPI – Excludes food and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying producer price trends.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected PPI suggests rising input costs for businesses, which may squeeze profit margins and lead to stock market declines, especially in sectors with thin margins.
A lower-than-expected PPI may signal easing cost pressures, boosting equities.
US Dollar
A strong PPI reading can strengthen the US dollar, as it raises expectations for Fed rate hikes, or at least reduces expectations of Fed easing.
A weaker PPI may weaken the dollar if it suggests easing inflation and less aggressive monetary policy.
US Government Bonds
Rising PPI can indicate future consumer inflation (as businesses may pass costs to consumers), leading to higher Treasury yields due to expectations of Fed tightening.
Softer PPI can lower inflation fears, keeping yields in check.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey April Prelim
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence in economic conditions, while the Inflation Expectations component reflects consumers’ outlook on future price increases. These indicators provide insight into consumer behavior, spending trends, and potential inflationary pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher sentiment can boost consumer discretionary and retail stocks, signaling strong consumer confidence. Weak sentiment may weigh on these sectors, raising concerns about reduced spending.
US Dollar
Strong sentiment and rising inflation expectations can support the dollar, as they may signal economic resilience and potential for prolonged higher interest rates. Weak sentiment or lower inflation expectations could weaken the dollar.
US Government Bonds
Higher sentiment and inflation expectations may push bond yields up, as investors anticipate a tighter Fed stance. Lower sentiment or easing inflation expectations could lead to lower yields, reflecting a more dovish outlook.