Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (US)

Week Ahead Economic Indicators (14th – 18th April)

Tuesday 15th April
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for March
The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. It is a key indicator of inflation, published monthly by Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada closely monitors CPI to guide interest rate decisions.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
Higher-than-expected CPI could weigh on equities, especially interest rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials, as it may prompt tighter monetary policy. Lower CPI might support stocks by increasing the chances of rate cuts.
Canadian Dollar
A stronger CPI reading could boost the Canadian dollar (CAD), as it may lead to higher interest rates. A weaker CPI could pressure the currency, signalling lower inflation and potential rate cuts.
Canadian Government Bonds
Rising inflation may push bond yields higher as investors expect tighter monetary policy, while lower CPI could lead to declining yields due to easing inflation concerns.

NY Fed Manufacturing for April
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.
Stocks
A lower-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index suggests deteriorating manufacturing conditions, potentially leading to declines in stock prices, especially within the industrial and manufacturing sectors. ​
Dollar
A weaker index reading may be perceived as negative for the U.S. dollar, indicating potential economic slowdown and reducing the currency’s appeal.
Bonds
Deteriorating manufacturing activity could lead to increased demand for government bonds as investors seek safer assets, potentially driving bond prices up and yields down.

Wednesday 16th of April
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for March
US Retail Sales refer to the total sales of goods and services by retail businesses in the United States, typically measured monthly by the Census Bureau.
This data provides insight into consumer spending trends, which make up a significant portion (around 70%) of the U.S. economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong retail sales can boost investor confidence, particularly in consumer-related stocks (retailers, e-commerce, consumer goods).
Weak sales may raise concerns about economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Strong retail sales often support a stronger dollar, as they signal economic resilience, while weak data could lead to a weaker dollar due to growth concerns.
US Government Bonds
Rising sales might push bond yields higher as investors anticipate tighter Fed policy, while weaker sales could have the opposite effect.
Federal Reserve Policy
Higher-than-expected retail sales may signal inflationary pressures, potentially leading to tighter monetary policy (higher interest rates).
Lower sales could increase the likelihood of rate cuts to stimulate spending.

09:45 ET
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
Bank of Canada determines interest rate policy at eight meetings during the year and they are an influential event for the markets. Prior to each meeting, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change. A post-meeting statement is issued after each meeting. Unlike the Federal Reserve, there are no post-meeting minutes. The Bank has an inflation target range of 1 percent to 3 percent with specific focus on the 2 percent midpoint.
Monetary policy goals are to aid and abet solid economic growth along with rising living standards. To achieve these goals, inflation is kept low, stable, and predictable. The inflation control target is at the heart of Canadian monetary policy that the Bank and the Government have established. The level of interest rates and the exchange rate determine the monetary environment in which the Canadian economy operates.
Canadian dollar
A rate hike typically strengthens the CAD as higher interest rates attract foreign investment. Conversely, a rate cut tends to weaken the CAD due to reduced returns on Canadian assets.
Canadian stock market
A rate cut is usually bullish for equities, especially interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, as borrowing costs decrease. A rate hike may pressure stocks due to higher financing costs and slower economic growth expectations.
Canadian bonds
When rates are raised, bond prices generally fall and yields rise, reflecting higher interest rates. When rates are cut, bond prices often rise and yields drop, especially on short- to mid-term bonds.

Bank of Canada Rate Statement
The Bank of Canada Rate Statement is the primary tool the Bank of Canada uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

The announcement conveys to the financial markets and investors what, if any, changes in policy might be. The main focus is the target set for the overnight rate (BoC Rate Decision). Policy is framed around keeping the annual rate of inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) within a 1 percent to 3 percent range and close to the 2 percent midpoint over the longer-run. To this end, the BoC also monitors an adjusted measure of the CPI that excludes a range of volatile categories in order to get a better handle on underlying trends.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.

Thursday 17th April
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.