Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (28th April – 2nd May) – US
Tuesday 29th April
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for March
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey provides monthly insights into labor demand by measuring job vacancies, hires, and separations across the US economy.
It serves as a key indicator of labor market strength and is monitored by the Federal Reserve for signs of economic momentum or cooling.
In February 2025, job openings declined to 7.6 million, down from 7.8 million in January, continuing a gradual downtrend from the March 2022 peak of 12.1 million.
Layoffs increased to 1.8 million, with notable reductions in federal employment and retail. The number of quits—a proxy for worker confidence—edged down slightly, suggesting a more cautious labor force.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A decline in job openings may weigh on equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to labor market conditions, such as retail and consumer discretionary, as it signals potential slowing in hiring and consumer spending.
US Dollar
Softening labor demand could exert downward pressure on the dollar, as it may increase expectations for interest rate cuts. However, if the labor market remains resilient overall, the dollar might find support.
US Government Bonds
A cooling job market may lead to lower bond yields, reflecting expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Conversely, if inflation concerns persist despite labor market softening, yields could remain elevated.
US CB Consumer Confidence for April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months.
It is based on a survey of US households and includes two sub-indexes: the Present Situation Index, which gauges current business and labor conditions, and the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook.
This release is closely watched as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US GDP.
In March 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 from 100.1 in February, marking the fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest level since January 2021.
The Present Situation Index dropped to 134.5, while the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, a level historically associated with recession risk.
Despite declining sentiment, consumer spending remained relatively firm, supported by robust activity in services such as travel and dining.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Declining consumer confidence may weigh on equities, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors, as it signals potential reductions in consumer spending and increased economic uncertainty.
US Dollar
Lower confidence levels could exert downward pressure on the dollar, reflecting concerns about economic growth. However, if consumer spending remains robust, the dollar may find support.
US Government Bonds
A drop in consumer confidence may lead to lower bond yields, as investors anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy. Conversely, if inflation expectations rise, yields could remain elevated.
Wednesday 30th April
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for April
The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly measure of private-sector employment in the United States, derived from anonymized payroll data of approximately 25 million employees. Produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, it offers a high-frequency view of labor market trends, serving as a leading indicator ahead of the official government employment report.
In March 2025, private sector employment increased by 155,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and rebounding from an upwardly revised 84,000 in February. Job gains were widespread across industries, with notable increases in professional and business services, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality. Annual pay growth for job-stayers was 4.6%, indicating steady wage growth. What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected job growth may bolster investor confidence, particularly in sectors sensitive to consumer spending and business investment.
US Dollar
Robust employment figures can support the dollar, as they may influence expectations of tighter monetary policy.
US Government Bonds
Improved labor market conditions might lead to higher bond yields, reflecting potential inflationary pressures and adjustments in interest rate expectations.
08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 Prelim
The Gross Domestic Product measures the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the United States over a specific period.
Reported quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP is a key indicator of economic health, reflecting the pace of economic activity and growth.
It encompasses various components, including consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures, and net exports.
Preliminary indicators suggest a potential contraction in economic activity.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates a -2.2% annualized decline for Q1 2025. This downturn is attributed to factors such as reduced business investment, particularly in core capital goods, and the impact of new tariffs, which have increased costs and disrupted trade flows.
These developments have raised concerns about a possible stagflation scenario, characterized by stagnant growth and rising inflation.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A contraction in GDP may lead to increased market volatility, with potential declines in sectors sensitive to economic cycles, such as industrials and consumer discretionary.
US Dollar
Economic slowdown could exert downward pressure on the dollar, especially if it influences expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy.
US Government Bonds
Weaker GDP growth may result in lower bond yields, as investors anticipate potential interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Canadian GDP for February
Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country over a specific period. Reported monthly by Statistics Canada, GDP serves as a primary indicator of the nation’s economic health, encompassing various sectors such as consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures, and net exports.
A preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada suggests that GDP growth in February 2025 was likely unchanged (0.0%) compared to January.
This follows a 0.4% increase in January, which was driven by gains in sectors such as mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing.
The anticipated stagnation in February reflects the impact of front-loaded production and exports in January, ahead of expected US tariffs on Canadian goods.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
The flat GDP reading may lead to cautious sentiment in equity markets, particularly affecting sectors sensitive to trade dynamics, such as manufacturing and export-oriented industries.
Canadian Dollar
Economic stagnation, coupled with trade uncertainties, could exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, especially if investors anticipate further economic headwinds.
Government Bonds
The lack of GDP growth may prompt increased demand for government bonds as a safe-haven investment, potentially leading to lower yields amid expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance by the Bank of Canada.
10:00 ET
US PCE Price Index for March
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a measure of the average change in the prices of goods and services purchased by households.
It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, as it reflects a broader range of consumer expenditures compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and accounts for changes in consumption patterns.
The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices, is particularly important for assessing underlying inflation trends.
For February 2025, the PCE Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations.
The Core PCE Price Index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than the previous month’s 2.7%, indicating stable yet persistent inflationary pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Stable inflationary pressures can provide a positive backdrop for stocks, particularly if it signals that the Federal Reserve may hold off on more aggressive rate hikes. However, any signs of accelerating inflation could raise concerns about tighter monetary policy, which may weigh on equities.
US Dollar
If the PCE Index remains in line with the Fed’s target range, the dollar could strengthen as investors view the economic outlook as stable. On the other hand, a surprise jump in inflation could prompt a more hawkish stance from the Fed, potentially leading to a stronger dollar.
US Government Bonds
If inflation is stable or shows signs of moderating, bond yields may remain relatively low as investors expect the Fed to maintain a more dovish monetary policy. However, rising inflation could push bond yields higher as markets price in the likelihood of tighter monetary conditions.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States.
It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
For the previous reporting period, US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 244,000 barrels to 443.1 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a decline of 770,000 barrels.
The increase was driven by a sharp rise in crude imports, which surged by 1.14 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2 million bpd, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2024.
What to Expect
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
Thursday 1st May
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tracks the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the previous week.
Continued Jobless Claims reflect the total number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits, providing insights into the ongoing unemployment situation.
Both reports are important indicators of labor market health and are closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers.
For the week ending April 19, 2025, initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 222,000, slightly above expectations of 220,000. This suggests that while the labor market remains strong, there are emerging signs of caution among employers due to economic uncertainties. In contrast, continuing claims fell by 37,000 to 1.841 million, indicating that those who lose their jobs are generally finding new employment quickly.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The slight rise in initial claims may raise concerns about potential softening in the labor market, which could affect market sentiment. However, the drop in continuing claims suggests that the overall employment situation remains strong, which could help support stock market stability.
US Dollar
A stable labor market, as indicated by the decline in continuing claims, is likely to support the US dollar, suggesting economic resilience. However, if initial claims continue to rise significantly, it could signal labor market weakness, which might exert downward pressure on the dollar.
US Government Bonds
The mixed data could encourage investors to seek safety in government bonds, particularly if the initial jobless claims signal a potential slowdown. This would likely push bond yields lower as demand for safer assets increases.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI April Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is a monthly survey-based indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
The index is derived from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 800 manufacturers, covering output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventories.
In March 2025, the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8, down from 52.7 in February, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity.
This decline was attributed to a slowdown in output and new orders, with factories reporting fewer instances of output being boosted by the front-running of tariffs. Input purchasing also declined, suggesting cautious inventory management amid economic uncertainties.
Prelim reads for April saw the Manufacturing PMI rise to 50.7, above expectations of 49.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The contraction in manufacturing activity may weigh on investor sentiment, particularly affecting industrial and manufacturing sector equities.
Reuters
US Dollar
A weaker manufacturing sector could lead to a softer dollar, especially if it influences the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
US Government Bonds
Signs of economic slowdown may increase demand for government bonds, potentially leading to lower yields as investors seek safer assets.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for April
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) that measures the economic health of the US manufacturing sector. Based on surveys of purchasing managers across various industries, it assesses factors such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signifies contraction.
In March 2025, the ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.0, down from 50.3 in February, signaling a contraction in manufacturing activity after two consecutive months of expansion. Key components contributing to this decline included:
New Orders: Dropped to 45.2, indicating a faster rate of contraction.
Production: Decreased to 48.3, moving from growth to contraction.
Employment: Fell to 44.7, reflecting a faster rate of contraction.
Prices: Rose significantly to 69.4, suggesting increased input costs.
These figures suggest that manufacturers faced challenges such as declining demand and rising costs during the month.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The contraction in manufacturing activity may lead to cautious sentiment in equity markets, particularly affecting industrial and manufacturing sector equities.
US Dollar
A weaker manufacturing sector could lead to a softer dollar, especially if it influences the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
US Government Bonds
Signs of economic slowdown may increase demand for government bonds, potentially leading to lower yields as investors seek safer assets.
Friday 2nd May
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for April
The Employment Situation report, released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides a comprehensive overview of the nation’s labor market.
It includes key metrics such as nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.
This report is a critical indicator for policymakers, investors, and economists to assess the health of the economy and make informed decisions.
In March 2025, the US economy added 228,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, surpassing expectations and indicating robust job growth.
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase in labor force participation. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, bringing the year-over-year wage growth to 3.8%, suggesting continued upward pressure on wages.
The average workweek remained unchanged at 34.2 hours.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The softer-than-expected job growth and uptick in unemployment may temper investor sentiment, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic cycles. However, the moderation in wage growth could alleviate concerns about inflationary pressures, potentially supporting equities.
US Dollar
The combination of slower employment gains and subdued wage growth may lead to a weaker dollar, as market participants adjust expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields might decline in response to the softer labor market data, as investors anticipate a more cautious approach from the Fed regarding monetary tightening, increasing demand for government bonds.
10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for March
The Factory Orders report, published monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the dollar volume of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods.
It provides insight into the demand for manufactured goods and is a key indicator of future manufacturing activity.
In the last report, new orders for manufactured goods surged by 9.2%, marking the largest increase since the previous summer.
This significant rise was primarily driven by a 139% jump in commercial aircraft orders, notably due to Boeing receiving 192 aircraft orders.
However, excluding the transportation sector, overall orders were flat, indicating underlying weakness in other areas of manufacturing.
Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and serve as a proxy for business investment, rose modestly by 0.1%, suggesting cautious business spending amid economic uncertainties.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The headline surge in factory orders may provide a temporary boost to investor sentiment, particularly in the aerospace sector. However, the underlying weakness in core orders could temper enthusiasm, especially in industries sensitive to business investment trends.
MarketWatch
US Dollar
The mixed nature of the report may lead to a neutral impact on the dollar. While strong headline figures could support the currency, concerns over subdued business investment might offset this effect.
US Government Bonds
The modest increase in core capital goods orders suggests limited inflationary pressure from business investment, potentially leading to stable or slightly lower bond yields as investors assess the economic outlook.
