Morning Juice – US Session Prep (30th April)

Sentiment
S&P 500 futures fell ahead of major US economic data, while corporations reporting earnings provided few reassurances about the future.

Contracts on the S&P and Nasdaq 100 fell after a six-day surge, as more businesses retracted their guidance.
SMC fell 16% in pre-market trading, ahead of earnings from mega-cap tech companies including Microsoft and Meta narrowly exceeded analysts’ expectations for Q1 revenue, but failed to provide a sales projection.

Economic barometers of US economic health are also due on Wednesday, with inflation and GDP statistics providing a glimpse of activity soon before Trump released country-specific tariffs on April 2nd.
Investors have been cautiously hopeful, with the Nasdaq 100 on track to recoup all of its losses this month, following tariff reversals and anticipation that the Fed could slash interest rates to prevent a recession.
Benchmark 10-year Treasuries were steady following six days of gains, with the yield at 4.16%. Gold fell.

In the latest shift in Trump’s trade approach, the US president issued an executive order to mitigate the impact of his car tariffs, stopping penalties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lowering charges on abroad parts used to manufacture vehicles in the US.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for April
Forecast: 115K, Prior: 155k, Range: 187k / 65k

08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 Advance
GDP QoQ – Forecast: 0.3%, Prior: 2.4%, Range: 1.7% / -1.5%
Price Index – Forecast: 3.1%, Prior: 2.3%, Range: 3.5% / 0.8%
Core PCE – Forecast: 3.2%, Prior: 2.6%, Range: 3.4% / 0.8%

US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement

10:00 ET
US PCE Price Index for March
YoY – Forecast: 2.2%, Prior: 2.5%, Range: 2.4% / 2%
MoM – Forecast: 0%, Prior: 0.3%, Range: 0.1% / -0.2%
Core YoY – Forecast: 2.6%,  Prior: 2.8%,  Range: 2.9% / 2.3%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.1%,  Prior: 0.4%, Range: 0.4% / 0%

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -0.579M,  Prior: 0.244M, Range: 1M / -3M

13:30 ET
BoC Meeting Minutes

Speakers
11:00 ET
Trump holds a Cabinet Meeting.

11:30 ET
BoE’s Lombardelli speaks at the launch of the central banks new economic teacher training partnership with Manchester University.

ECB’s Villeroy speaks at a conference in Paris.

14:00 ET
Trump participates in a Swearing-In Ceremony for the Ambassador to the United Kingdom

16:00 ET
Trump delivers “Investing in America” remarks..

20:00 ET
Trump participates in a NewsNation Cuomo Townhall: The First 100 Days.

Earnings
16:05 ET
Microsoft Q3 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS $3.21
Est. Rev $68.48B

eBay Q1 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS $1.34
Est. Rev $2.55B

16:40 ET
Meta Q1 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $5.25
Est. Rev: $41.38B

Good luck!