
Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (Europe)
Hey, Traders!
For the May 5th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the European Session, with a brief synopsis of what they represent and what to possibly expect from the markets in reaction.
Tuesday
Eurozone, German, UK Services & Composite PMI’s
Composite
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of around 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above 50 signals rising output versus the previous month and the closer to zero the faster is output contracting. The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI..
Services
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector.
The report is based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector services companies.
Data is usually released on the third working day of each month. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.
Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Wednesday
German Industrial Orders
Manufacturers’ orders are a leading indicator for industrial production.
The figures are calculated every month by the Federal Statistical Office and represent the value of all orders for the delivery of self-made products confirmed by industrial enterprises with 50 or more employees in the respective reporting period.
The results are broken down by both sector and region of origin (domestic and foreign split into euro area and non-euro area). Monthly volatility can be very high, so moving averages give a much better guide to underlying trends.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Thursday
German Industrial production
Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities. Data are collected from companies in the sector with fifty or more employees and include mining and quarrying, manufacturing, energy and, in contrast to its Eurozone counterpart, construction.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate.
What to expect:
Could have an effect on businesses for the sudden change in the cost of credit on their corporate balance. Consumers could also be affected since the shifts in Monetary policy influence other short-term rates like Bank deposits, personal loans, credit cards, home equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Higher rates might make banks more reluctant to borrow overnight funds, so might lend out less money or charge businesses and consumers a higher rate to offset the rates.