Morning Juice – US Session Prep (21st May)

Sentiment
US stocks are set to extend a retreat with traders nervous about taking on more risk as House lawmakers debate tax cuts at the center of the Trump administration’s policy agenda.
Treasuries and the dollar also fell.

S&P 500 futures slid alongside a retreat in European shares.
Oil climbed on a report that Israel could be gearing up for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose further above the 5% mark.
The greenback lost ground against all major currencies.

Republicans negotiated through the night on Wednesday over a bill that’s expected to include compromises on the state and local tax deduction and spending cuts, in the end,m House Speaker Johnson annoucned this morning that they came to $40,000 SALT deduction cap agreement.
While investors have rushed back into stocks on hopes that the US is easing off its tariff threats, there are questions about whether gains can be sustained.

In oil markets, traders were responding to a report by CNN that said it wasn’t clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision on whether to carry out the strikes on Iran.
Crude prices have been volatile since last week on mixed headlines about the fate of Iran-US nuclear talks, which could pave the way for more barrels to return to a market.

Docket
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -1.1M | Prior: 3.454M | Range: 1.739M / -2M

Speakers
11:30 ET
Trump greets the President of the Republic of South Africa

12:00 ET
ECB’s Lane speaks on Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy” – discusses topic with LSE Professor Silvana Tenreyro.

12:15 ET
Fed’s Barkin and Bowman will participate in a Fed Listens event.

12:45 ET
Trump participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the President of the Republic of South Africa

13:30 ET
ECB’s Escriva speaks at VI Foro internacional Expansión near Madrid

15:30 ET
ECB’s de Guindos speaks at a event in Madrid.

16:00 ET
Trump hosts the 2025 NCAA Men’s College Basketball Champions – The University of Florida Gators

Good luck!