Morning Juice – US Session Prep (22nd May)

Sentiment
US bonds and stocks steadied after a volatile day with investors focusing on how talks over Trump’s tax and spending bill play out.
Private-sector data will also offer insight on how the economy is faring.

Republican lawmakers are grappling with details of Trump’s signature tax legislation days after a downgrade by Moody’s Ratings thrust concerns over the ballooning deficit into the spotlight.
This has shown up in government bonds, sapping sentiment after an equity rebound put the S&P 500 on the cusp of a bull market.
The worry in debt markets is that the tax bill would add trillions of dollars to an already bulging deficit at a time when investors’ appetite in US assets is waning.

Treasuries edged higher across the curve to halt days of losses in which the 30-year yield hit the highest since 2023.
The yield for 10-year Treasuries dropped two basis points to 4.58% on Thursday.
S&P 500 futures pointed to a flat open.
The dollar rose 0.2% while Bitcoin pushed further into record territory.
Oil declined.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 230k | Prior: 229k | Range 235k / 220k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.881M | Prior: 1.883M | Range 1.9M / 1.864M

09:45 ET
US S&P PMI May Prelim
Manufacturing – Forecast: 50.2 | Prior: 49.8 | Range 52.2 / 49.5
Services – Forecast: 51 | Prior: 50.8 | Range 52.6 / 50.4

10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for April
Forecast: 4.1M | Prior: 4.02M | Range 4.27M / 3.94M

13:00 ET
US sells $18 bln 10-Year TIPs reopening

Speakers
08:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin speaks in a fireside chat in Roanoke, Virginia.
Text is expected, but no Q&A.

08:30 ET
BoE’s Pill delivers a keynote speech at Austrian central bank conference on “Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts.”

09:30 ET
ECB’s Nagel holds press conference with German Finance Minister Klingbeil at he G-7 meeting in Banff, Canada.

11:00 ET
ECB’s Elderson gives dinner speech at Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands

11:30 ET
ECB’s de Guindos and Escriva speak at 6th International Forum Expansión ‘The future is decided aquí – Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology’ in Madrid.

13:00 ET
White House Press Briefing with Press Secretary Leavitt.

14:00 ET
Fed’s  Williams gives keynote remarks at a New York Fed event.
Text and Q&A are expected.

14:30 ET
BoC’s Gov. Macklem & Canada’s Finance Minister Champagne speak from the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting in Banff.

15:45 ET
Trump Speaks in a MAHA Commission Event

Good luck!