Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (26th May – 30th May) – US

Tuesday 27th May
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods April Prelim
The Durable Goods Orders report, released monthly by the US Census Bureau, measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of goods intended to last three years or more. This includes items such as machinery, vehicles, and appliances. The report serves as a key indicator of manufacturing sector health and future production activity.

In March 2025, new orders for manufactured durable goods surged by 9.2%, or $26.6 billion, to a seasonally adjusted $315.7 billion, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. This significant rise was primarily driven by a 139% jump in commercial aircraft orders, notably from Boeing, which received 192 orders in March compared to just 13 in February.
Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged, indicating that the headline increase was heavily influenced by the volatile aircraft sector. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business investment—edged up by 0.1%, suggesting cautious business spending amid economic uncertainties.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The substantial rise in durable goods orders, driven by aircraft demand, may provide a temporary boost to industrial and manufacturing stocks. However, the lack of growth in core orders could temper broader market enthusiasm, especially in sectors reliant on business investment.
US Dollar
The mixed data may lead to a neutral impact on the US dollar. While the headline figure suggests economic strength, the underlying softness in core orders may limit dollar gains.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields may remain stable or experience slight downward pressure, as investors weigh the strong headline data against the tepid core orders and ongoing trade uncertainties.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the surge in durable goods orders with caution, recognizing the outsized impact of aircraft orders. The flat core capital goods orders and persistent trade tensions may reinforce a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for May
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is a monthly survey that measures the degree of optimism consumers feel about the overall state of the US economy and their personal financial situation. It comprises two components: the Present Situation Index, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, and the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions. A higher index indicates greater consumer confidence, which can signal increased consumer spending and economic growth.

In April 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.9 points to 86.0 (1985=100), down from a revised 93.9 in March. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since April 2020. The Present Situation Index decreased slightly by 0.9 points to 133.5, reflecting a modest decline in consumers’ assessment of current conditions. However, the Expectations Index dropped sharply by 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011, indicating growing pessimism about the short-term economic outlook.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted that the decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations, with all three components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—deteriorating sharply. This pervasive pessimism suggests that consumers are increasingly concerned about the future of the economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The sharp decline in consumer confidence, particularly in future expectations, may weigh on investor sentiment, especially in consumer-driven sectors. However, some analysts argue that if a recession is avoided, stocks could still perform well, as historical data shows markets often rally despite weak sentiment.
US Dollar
A weakening consumer outlook could exert downward pressure on the US dollar, as it may signal slower economic growth and potential shifts in monetary policy expectations.
US Government Bonds
Increased economic uncertainty and declining consumer confidence may lead investors to seek the safety of government bonds, potentially driving yields lower.
Federal Reserve Policy
While the Federal Reserve closely monitors consumer confidence as an indicator of future spending, the current decline may not immediately alter its policy stance. However, if the trend continues and begins to impact actual consumer spending and economic activity, the Fed may consider adjusting its approach to support growth.

Wednesday 28th May
14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes provide a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting, offering insights into the economic conditions and policy considerations that influenced their decisions. These minutes are released approximately three weeks after each meeting and are closely analyzed for indications of future monetary policy directions.

In the March 18–19, 2025 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising economic uncertainties. Key highlights from the minutes include:
Balance Sheet Reduction: The committee decided to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, reducing the monthly cap on Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the $35 billion cap on mortgage-backed securities. This move was prompted by concerns over market liquidity and uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling.
Economic Outlook: While acknowledging progress in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.3% year-over-year in April, the committee expressed concerns about potential stagflation due to persistent inflationary pressures and slowing job growth.
Policy Stance: The minutes revealed a consensus to maintain a cautious policy stance, emphasizing the need to monitor incoming data closely. Some members highlighted the risks associated with ongoing trade tensions and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The Fed’s cautious approach and concerns over economic uncertainties may lead to increased market volatility. Investors might adopt a risk-averse stance, potentially leading to short-term declines in equity markets.
US Dollar
The decision to maintain interest rates and slow balance sheet reduction could exert downward pressure on the US dollar, especially if economic data continues to show signs of weakening.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields may decline as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and the Fed’s dovish stance. The slowdown in balance sheet reduction could also support bond prices.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed is likely to continue its cautious approach, closely monitoring economic indicators before making further policy adjustments. While a rate cut is not imminent, persistent economic challenges could prompt the Fed to consider easing measures in the coming months.

Thursday 29th May
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ Annualized Q1 2nd Estimate
Gross Domestic Product measures the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country over a specific period. In the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases quarterly estimates of GDP, providing insights into the nation’s economic performance.

In the prelim numbers for Q1 2025, real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%, marking the first decline since Q1 2022. This follows a 2.4% growth rate in Q4 2024. The downturn was primarily attributed to a significant increase in imports and a decrease in government spending. These factors were partially offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
Notably, real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a key measure of underlying demand—rose by 3.0%, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter. This suggests that domestic demand remained resilient despite the overall GDP contraction.
On the inflation front, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4%, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.6%. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased by 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The unexpected GDP contraction may lead to increased market volatility. Investors might reassess growth expectations, potentially impacting sectors sensitive to economic cycles. However, the resilience in domestic demand could provide some support to equities.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected GDP report could exert downward pressure on the US dollar, as it may influence expectations of future Federal Reserve policy adjustments. However, persistent inflation could offset some of this pressure by maintaining the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
US Government Bonds
The combination of economic contraction and ongoing inflation may lead to mixed reactions in the bond market. While slower growth could drive yields lower, inflation concerns might limit the extent of any rally in bond prices.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed faces a complex environment with slowing growth and persistent inflation. While the GDP contraction might suggest a need for more accommodative policy, the elevated inflation rates could constrain the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy in the near term.

US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report, released weekly by the US Department of Labor, measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This metric serves as a leading indicator of labor market health. The Continued Jobless Claims report, also released weekly, tracks the number of individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claim. This figure provides insight into the persistence of unemployment.

For the week ending May 10, 2025, initial jobless claims remained steady at 229,000, unchanged from the previous week. This stability suggests a steady pace of layoffs, aligning with the four-week moving average of 226,000.
Continued jobless claims, which reflect the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits, increased slightly to 1.881 million for the week ending May 3, 2025, up from 1.872 million the previous week.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The steady initial jobless claims suggest a resilient labor market, which may bolster investor confidence. However, the slight uptick in continued claims could prompt caution, especially in sectors sensitive to employment trends.
US Dollar
Stable jobless claims data may support the US dollar, as it indicates ongoing economic strength. However, any signs of labor market softening could temper this effect.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields may remain relatively stable, with investors closely monitoring labor market indicators for signs of economic shifts. An unexpected rise in jobless claims could lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets, putting downward pressure on yields.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve is likely to view the steady jobless claims as a sign of a stable labor market, supporting its current monetary policy stance. However, any significant changes in unemployment trends could influence future policy decisions.

12:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Energy Information Administration releases the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which provides comprehensive data on petroleum inventories, production, and consumption in the United States. This report is a key indicator for energy markets, reflecting the balance between supply and demand for crude oil and petroleum products.

For the week ending May 9, 2025, the EIA reported the following:
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories: Increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels. This marks a reversal from the previous week’s drawdown of 2.0 million barrels.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Rose by 0.5 million barrels to 399.7 million barrels.
Total Crude Oil Stocks (Commercial + SPR): Increased by 4.0 million barrels to 841.5 million barrels, reflecting a 0.5% rise from the previous week.
Refinery Inputs: Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day, up by 330,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Refineries operated at 90.2% of their operable capacity.
Crude Oil Imports: Averaged 5.8 million barrels per day, a decrease of 214,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
US Energy Information Administration
Crude Oil Exports: Averaged 4.2 million barrels per day, up from 4.0 million barrels per day the previous week.
What to Expect
Crude Oil Prices
The unexpected build in commercial crude oil inventories may exert downward pressure on oil prices, as it suggests a potential oversupply in the market. However, factors such as refinery utilization rates and export levels will also influence price movements.
Energy Sector Stocks
Energy companies, particularly those involved in exploration and production, may experience stock price volatility in response to inventory changes and oil price fluctuations.
Economic Indicators
Changes in crude oil inventories can impact inflation measures and consumer spending, as oil prices influence transportation and production costs across various sectors.

Friday 30th May
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for April
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index tracks the changes in prices of goods and services consumed by individuals and is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it accounts for shifts in consumer behavior and a broader range of expenditures, offering a more comprehensive inflation view.

In March 2025, the headline PCE Price Index rose 2.3% year-over-year, easing from a revised 2.7% in February. On a monthly basis, the index was flat (0.0%), following a 0.4% increase the prior month. The Core PCE Price Index—which strips out food and energy—rose 2.6% year-over-year, down from 2.8% previously. Core PCE was also unchanged on the month, after rising 0.5% in February.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Softer-than-expected inflation could support equity markets, especially rate-sensitive sectors like tech and consumer discretionary, as easing price pressures reduce concerns of further Fed tightening.
US Dollar
A cooler inflation print may weigh on the dollar, as it lowers expectations for any additional rate hikes and could bring forward bets on future rate cuts.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields may fall as lower inflation boosts bond prices, reinforcing market confidence that the Fed will remain on hold or consider easing later in the year.
Federal Reserve Policy
The moderation in both headline and core PCE reinforces the view that inflation is gradually returning to target. This supports the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and could strengthen the case for rate cuts later in 2025 if the disinflation trend continues.

US Consumer Spending for April
Consumer spending represents the total value of goods and services purchased by US residents. It accounts for over two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity and is a critical indicator of economic health.

In March 2025, consumer spending increased by 0.7%, following a 0.5% rise in February. This growth was driven by a surge in purchases of motor vehicles, as consumers aimed to avoid anticipated price hikes and shortages due to new tariffs. Personal income also rose by 0.5%, with disposable personal income increasing by the same margin. The personal saving rate stood at 3.9%.
What to Expect
US Stocks
The robust increase in consumer spending may bolster investor confidence, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary and retail. However, ongoing trade tensions and tariff implementations could introduce volatility in the markets.
US Dollar
Stronger consumer spending supports the US dollar by indicating economic resilience. Yet, concerns over inflation and potential shifts in monetary policy could influence currency fluctuations.
US Government Bonds
Increased consumer spending might lead to higher yields on government bonds, as investors anticipate potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve to manage inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Policy
The uptick in consumer spending, coupled with steady income growth, suggests economic strength. However, the Federal Reserve may remain cautious, monitoring inflation trends and other economic indicators before making policy changes.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations May Final
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey measures how optimistic or pessimistic US consumers feel about the economy, their personal financial situation, and spending prospects. It also includes expectations for inflation over the short and long term. This survey is a key gauge of consumer confidence, which influences spending behavior and overall economic growth.

In the May 2025 preliminary release, the Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April. This marks the fifth straight monthly drop and the lowest reading since June 2022, reflecting increased consumer concerns amid inflation and trade uncertainties.
Inflation Expectations rose notably:
The 1-year ahead inflation expectation jumped to 7.3%, the highest since 1981.
The 5-year ahead expectation increased to 4.1%, the highest since February 1993.

What to Expect
US Stocks
The drop in consumer sentiment combined with rising inflation expectations could pressure equity markets, especially consumer discretionary sectors, as fears of reduced spending and cost pressures grow.
US Dollar
Higher inflation expectations may strengthen the dollar short-term, as markets price in possible Fed rate hikes. However, sustained low sentiment might dampen this effect.
US Government Bonds
Yields could rise as investors seek compensation for higher expected inflation, leading to selling pressure on bonds.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed faces a challenging balance—declining consumer confidence hints at economic cooling, but rising inflation expectations may push the Fed to keep monetary policy tight to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.