NFP Prep

On Friday the 6th of June at 08:30 ET, the BLS releases the latest Employment Situation report for the month of May.
Here are some views on what to expect.

Investment Bank Views
MUFG
The US rate market is currently pricing in around 50 BPS of cuts by year end compared to around 75 BPS of cuts a month ago. For market participants to have more confidence that the Fed will resume rate cuts, the Fed will need to see clearer evidence that the US labour market is loosening.
The release on Friday of the latest nonfarm payrolls report for May could reinforce the US dollar sell-off. The consensus expectation is for employment growth to slow to around 130k compared to the average so far this year of 144k/month with the unemployment rate expected to remain weak. However, if correct it would not be weak enough to significantly bring forward expectations for the timing of the next Fed rate cut from September.

JPMorgan
We forecast that nonfarm payroll employment rose 125k in May (115k private) and that the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, with risks around that tilted toward 4.3%. We also look for a 0.2%m/m (3.6% y/y) increase in average hourly earnings and for the workweek to remain at 34.3.

Societe Generale
The upcoming week’s economic releases focus primarily on employment. Employment growth has slowed but remains healthy, moderating from the unsustainably rapid pace of 2022-2023 to a solid and sustainable rate in 2024 and early 2025. Tariffs are increasing production costs, leading us to suspect that companies may reduce hiring in response. However, current data suggests resilience in the labour market.
We project a gain of 170,000 jobs in the May non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. As usual, the largest increases are expected in the healthcare and social assistance sectors. While reduced government subsidies may eventually slow job growth in these industries, we have not yet observed significant changes. Currently, healthcare and social assistance payrolls are growing at an average monthly pace of about 70,000 workers.

Morgan Stanley
We forecast total and headline payrolls rose 125k. New and continuing jobless claims rose over the past month, signalling a small pickup in layoffs and decline in re-employment rates. And we suspect that Easter boosted April payrolls, with payback in May. In the government sector, we expect that the delayed layoffs of probationary federal employees result in zero net payroll gain: state and local government employment continuing to rise on trend but offset by a decline in federal employment.

Previous NFP Market Reaction:
US Nonfarm Payrolls Actual 177k (Forecast 138k, Previous 228k, Revised 185K)
Dollar and S&P 500 strengthened