Morning Juice – US Session Prep (5th June)
Sentiment
US equity futures struggled for direction as investors awaited Friday’s payrolls report, following a series of data releases that offered varied signals on the health of the economy.
S&P 500 contracts drifted. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries steadied as Wednesday’s bond rally faded.
The dollar edged lower.
Stocks and bonds in Europe gained ahead of an expected interest rate cut.
The wild swings in stocks that were sparked by the Trump administration’s tariff announcements in April – and subsequent rebound – have given way to more subdued daily moves in recent weeks.
The US benchmark has remained largely flat since mid-May as traders assess the impact of the trade war on economic activity.
Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that growth in nonfarm payrolls slowed and the unemployment rate remained steady.
While the figures would chime with Wednesday data that showed a contraction in US services and a deceleration in private hiring, separate data earlier in the week unexpectedly showed a fairly broad advance in US job openings.
The European Central Bank is set to cut rates for an eighth time later on Thursday.
Another reduction is expected in September, when trade talks with the US should have concluded and fresh forecasts will reveal the full implications of the tariffs.
The euro traded steady after advancing more than 10% against the dollar year-to-date. European stocks were on track for the highest close in more than two weeks.
Docket
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for April
Forecast: -$66.1B | Prior: -$140.5B | Range: -$59.1B / -$133b
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 235k | Prior: 240k | Range: 250k / 225k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.91M | Prior: 1.919M | Range: 1.94M / 1.88M
11:30 ET
US sells $65 bln 4-Week Bills
Speakers
08:45 ET
ECB Press Conference with President Lagarde following the ECB Rate Decision
11:00 ET
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick Testifies to the House Panel
11:30 ET
Trump greets Germany’s Chancellor Merz at the White House
11:45 ET
Trump & Germany’s Chancellor Merz Bilateral Meeting
12:00 ET
Fed’s Kugler speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York.
Text is expected, but no Q&A.
13:30 ET
Fed’s Harker gives remarks on the economic outlook at an event at the Philadelphia Fed.
Text and Q&A are expected.
Fed’s Schmid speaks on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed.
Text and Q&A are expected.
16:00 ET
Trump participates in a Roundtable Discussion with the Fraternal Order of Police
Good luck!
