Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (9th June – 13th June)

Wednesday 11th June
08:30 ET
US CPI for May
The Consumer Price Index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a broad basket of goods and services.
It is a key gauge of inflation and directly influences monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Summary of the Latest Report (April)
In April, headline CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, while the year-over-year rate slowed slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% in March. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.3% on the month and held steady at 3.6% year-over-year.
Inflation pressures remained concentrated in shelter and services, while goods prices showed some moderation. The report was seen as mildly encouraging for those expecting disinflation, though underlying price pressures remained somewhat sticky.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Markets will be watching for continued signs of disinflation. A softer-than-expected CPI print could lift equities, especially in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like tech. Conversely, a surprise to the upside might weigh on stocks due to fears of prolonged tight monetary policy.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected CPI could boost the dollar, as it would imply the Fed might delay rate cuts. A softer reading could lead to dollar weakness as expectations for easing policy gain traction.
US Government Bonds
Bond markets are highly sensitive to inflation data. A cooler CPI report could drive yields lower as investors price in rate cuts. A hot print might trigger selling in Treasuries, pushing yields higher due to persistent inflation risk.
Federal Reserve Policy
This release is critical for shaping expectations around the Fed’s next moves. If inflation continues to moderate, it would support the case for rate cuts later in the year. However, persistent strength—especially in core services—could lead the Fed to remain on hold for longer, emphasizing data-dependence in their messaging.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases the Weekly Petroleum Status Report every Wednesday, providing detailed data on US crude oil and petroleum product inventories, production, imports, exports, and refinery operations.
This report serves as a vital indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector, influencing oil prices and informing market participants and policymakers.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending May 23th)
For the week ending May 23, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, bringing total stocks to 440.4 million barrels, approximately 6% below the five-year seasonal average. This decline was contrary to analysts’ expectations of a modest increase. The drawdown was primarily driven by a surge in crude oil exports, which rose by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.3 million barrels per day, and increased domestic demand for gasoline and distillates ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels to 223.1 million barrels, while distillate stocks decreased by 724,000 barrels to 103.4 million barrels, marking the lowest level since April 2005. Refinery utilization slightly declined to 90.2%, and crude oil imports from Nigeria surged to their highest level since October 2019, following an unplanned outage at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery.

What to Expect
Crude Oil Inventories
Looking ahead to the report for the week ending May 30, 2025, analysts anticipate a potential build in crude oil inventories. Factors contributing to this expectation include a possible slowdown in export activity and a normalization of refinery operations following the Memorial Day holiday. Additionally, any fluctuations in import levels, particularly from key suppliers, could influence inventory changes.
Gasoline and Distillate Stocks
With the Memorial Day weekend marking the unofficial start of the US summer driving season, gasoline demand is expected to remain robust. This increased consumption may lead to further drawdowns in gasoline inventories. Conversely, distillate demand could stabilize or even decline slightly, depending on industrial activity and transportation needs, potentially resulting in modest inventory builds.
Market Implications
A larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories could support oil prices, reflecting strong demand or export activity. Conversely, an unexpected build might exert downward pressure on prices, signaling weaker demand or increased supply. Similarly, significant changes in gasoline and distillate stocks will be closely monitored, as they provide insights into consumer behavior and economic activity. Market participants will also pay attention to refinery utilization rates and import/export balances for a comprehensive understanding of supply dynamics.

13:00 ET
US 10-Year Bond Auction
The 10-Year Treasury Note Auction is a regular event where the US Department of the Treasury issues 10-year notes to finance government spending.
Investors bid on these notes, and the auction results reveal the yield (interest rate) at which the notes are sold. The outcomes provide insights into investor demand, inflation expectations, and perceptions of fiscal policy, influencing broader financial markets.

Summary of the Latest Auction (May 2025)
On May 6, 2025, the US Treasury auctioned $42 billion in 10-year notes (CUSIP 91282CNC1) at a high yield of 4.342%, slightly below the pre-auction market expectation of 4.354%, indicating strong demand. Notably, 91.1% of the issuance was purchased by non-mandated investors—the highest percentage since February 2023—suggesting robust interest from a diverse investor base. Indirect bidders, often representing foreign investors, took 71.2% of the notes, above the recent average of 67.6%, while direct bidders accounted for 19.9%, also surpassing the typical 17.2%. The auction’s success helped alleviate concerns about potential waning demand for US government debt amid rising fiscal deficits and global trade tensions.

What to Expect
Investor Demand
Market participants will closely watch the level of demand, especially from indirect bidders, as a gauge of foreign interest in US debt. Strong participation could signal continued confidence in US fiscal stability, while weaker demand might raise concerns about the attractiveness of US securities amid global economic uncertainties.
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Yield Implications
The auction yield will reflect investor expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. A higher yield may indicate concerns about rising inflation or fiscal deficits, potentially putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. Conversely, a lower yield could suggest confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage inflation and a stable economic outlook.
Market Impact
The auction results can influence financial markets. A strong auction with high demand and favorable yields may bolster investor confidence, supporting equity markets and stabilizing bond prices. In contrast, a weak auction could lead to increased volatility, with potential declines in stock prices and rising yields in the bond market.

Thursday 12th June
08:30 ET
US PPI for May
The Producer Price Index, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, reflecting price changes at the wholesale level before they reach consumers.

Summary of the Latest Report (April 2025)
In April 2025, the PPI for final demand decreased by 0.5%, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020. This unexpected drop was primarily driven by a 0.7% fall in services prices, with significant decreases in trade services margins, hotel and motel rates, airline fares, and portfolio management fees. Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 2.4%, down from a 3.4% increase in March. The core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, edged down by 0.1%, indicating a broad-based easing of inflationary pressures at the producer level.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A continued decline or stabilization in producer prices could bolster equity markets, especially in sectors sensitive to input costs, as it may signal easing inflationary pressures and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy. Conversely, an unexpected uptick in PPI could raise concerns about persistent inflation, potentially leading to market volatility.
US Dollar
The US dollar’s performance may hinge on the PPI data. A softer-than-expected reading could weaken the dollar, as it might prompt expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, a higher-than-anticipated PPI could strengthen the dollar, reflecting concerns over sustained inflation and the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates.
US Government Bonds
Bond markets are likely to react to the PPI figures, with a lower-than-expected PPI potentially leading to a rally in government bonds and a decline in yields, as investors anticipate a less aggressive monetary policy. Conversely, a higher PPI could result in bond sell-offs and rising yields, driven by fears of enduring inflation and tighter monetary conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve will consider the May PPI data in its ongoing assessment of inflationary trends. A continued moderation in producer prices may support arguments for pausing or even cutting interest rates in the near future. However, if the PPI indicates renewed inflationary pressures, the Fed may maintain or even increase rates to achieve its inflation targets. The PPI report, therefore, plays a crucial role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report, released weekly by the US Department of Labor, measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continued Jobless Claims (or insured unemployment) represent the number of people who continue to receive unemployment benefits after their initial claim. These metrics provide timely insights into the health of the labor market and are closely watched by economists and policymakers.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending May 24, 2025)
In the week ending May 24, initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000, surpassing economists’ expectations of 230,000. This increase marks the highest level in five weeks and suggests a modest easing in labor market conditions. The rise is attributed to factors such as the end of the school year and the Memorial Day holiday, rather than a significant uptick in layoffs.
Continued claims, which reflect the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits, increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million for the week ending May 17, the highest level since November 2021. This suggests that while layoffs remain low, rehiring may be slowing, leading to longer durations of unemployment.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Investors will monitor the upcoming jobless claims report for signs of labor market strength or weakness. A higher-than-expected number of claims could raise concerns about economic slowdown, potentially leading to market volatility. Conversely, a decline in claims may bolster investor confidence, supporting equity markets.
US Dollar
The US dollar may react to jobless claims data as it influences expectations for Federal Reserve policy. An unexpected rise in claims could weaken the dollar, reflecting concerns over economic growth. A decrease in claims might strengthen the dollar, signaling a robust labor market.
US Government Bonds
Bond markets are sensitive to labor market indicators. An increase in jobless claims could lead to lower yields as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty. Conversely, a drop in claims may result in higher yields due to expectations of continued economic expansion.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve closely watches labor market data to guide monetary policy decisions. A sustained increase in jobless claims could prompt the Fed to consider easing measures to support employment. However, if claims remain low, the Fed may maintain its current policy stance, focusing on inflation control.

Friday 13th June
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations
The University of Michigan’s monthly Surveys of Consumers assess US consumer confidence and inflation expectations. The Consumer Sentiment Index gauges consumers’ views on current and future economic conditions, while the Inflation Expectations metrics reflect anticipated price changes over one and five years. These indicators are pivotal for understanding consumer behavior and guiding monetary policy.

Summary of the Latest Report (May Prelim)
In May 2025, the final Consumer Sentiment Index remained steady at 52.2, matching April’s level and slightly above the preliminary reading of 50.8. Despite this stability, sentiment is approximately 25% lower than a year ago, indicating persistent consumer pessimism. The Current Economic Conditions Index dipped to 58.9 from 59.8 in April, while the Index of Consumer Expectations edged up to 47.9 from 47.3, suggesting modest improvement in future outlooks.

Inflation expectations showed mixed movements. The one-year inflation expectation rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1981, reflecting ongoing concerns about near-term price increases. Conversely, the five-year expectation declined to 4.2% from 4.4% in April, marking the first decrease since December 2024. This divergence indicates that while consumers are apprehensive about short-term inflation, their long-term outlook has slightly improved.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Persistently low consumer sentiment may signal caution among investors, potentially leading to subdued equity market performance. However, the stabilization in long-term inflation expectations could alleviate some concerns, possibly supporting sectors sensitive to interest rates.
US Dollar
Elevated short-term inflation expectations might bolster the US dollar, as markets anticipate potential Federal Reserve actions to combat inflation. Conversely, the decline in long-term expectations could temper such effects, leading to a more balanced outlook for the currency.
US Government Bonds
Bond yields may experience upward pressure due to heightened short-term inflation expectations, as investors demand higher returns to offset anticipated price increases. However, the dip in long-term expectations could moderate this effect, leading to a nuanced impact on the bond market.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve is likely to monitor these indicators closely. The rise in one-year inflation expectations may prompt a cautious approach, potentially delaying rate cuts. However, the decrease in five-year expectations suggests that inflation concerns may be easing over the longer term, providing the Fed with some flexibility in its policy decisions.