Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (16th June – 20th June) – US
Tuesday 17th June
09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for May
The Industrial Production report, released monthly by the Federal Reserve, measures total output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities in the US It provides insight into the broader industrial sector’s capacity utilization and economic momentum.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
In April 2025, industrial production was essentially unchanged, with a 0.0% monthly change after a 0.3% decline in March. Manufacturing output fell 0.4%, mining production slipped, while utilities saw a notable 3.3% gain. Capacity utilization edged down to 77.7%, still below its long-term average. Despite the overall flat reading, industrial activity remained 1.5% above its level a year ago
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected rebound in industrial production could boost sentiment among industrial and cyclical stocks, suggesting broader economic strength. However, persistent weakness—especially in manufacturing—may dampen enthusiasm and contribute to sector-specific underperformance.
US Dollar
A rebound in industrial output could strengthen the U.S. dollar, reinforcing expectations of economic resilience and supporting monetary policy. Continued softness may limit dollar gains, reflecting uncertainty about growth prospects.
US Government Bonds
An upside surprise in industrial production may push yields higher as growth prospects improve. Conversely, if production remains flat or contracts, bond yields could edge lower as investors seek safety amid economic softness.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger industrial output could influence the Fed to hold off on any rate cuts, reinforcing a data-driven and cautious policy stance. Conversely, persistent softness—especially across manufacturing and mining—could factor into discussions around policy easing in the months ahead.
Wednesday 18th June
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for May
Housing Starts measure the number of new residential construction projects—both single-family and multi-family—that begin each month in the US Released by the US Census Bureau, this indicator reflects builder confidence, housing demand, and broader economic activity.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
In April, Housing Starts edged up 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.361 million units, close to forecasts and slightly below year-ago levels (~1.385 million)
The increase was driven by gains in multifamily construction, while single-family starts fell 2.1% to 927,000 units, the lowest since July 2024. Building Permits fell 4.7%, signaling potential weakness ahead. April also saw challenges from high interest rates, elevated construction costs, and weak homebuilder sentiment
What to Expect
US Stocks
A rebound in May’s Housing Starts—especially in the single-family segment—could boost homebuilder and construction firm stocks, as well as related industries like home furnishings, signaling improved demand.
US Dollar
Stronger housing activity may support the U.S. dollar by reinforcing broader economic resilience, but weak starts may limit any positive currency momentum.
US Government Bonds
An uptick in Housing Starts could lift Treasury yields as markets adjust for robust growth expectations. Conversely, continued softness would likely push yields lower as investors seek a safer stance.
Federal Reserve Policy
Housing Starts are a key piece of the economic puzzle the Fed consults. A stronger-than-expected report could dampen expectations for near-term rate cuts, while a weak reading might strengthen the case for the Fed to remain cautious or lean slightly dovish.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing an early signal of labor market health. Continued Jobless Claims measure individuals who continue to receive benefits, offering insight into the duration of unemployment.
Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending May 31)
Initial claims rose by 8,000 to 247,000, the highest level since early October—suggesting modest softening—but remain historically low. Meanwhile, continued claims edged down 3,000 to 1.904 million, marking a slight improvement in ongoing employment retention
What to Expect
US Stocks
A further increase in initial claims above ~247k may trigger investor concerns about labor market weakness, potentially pressuring equities, especially consumer and cyclical sectors. A decline could bolster sentiment.
US Dollar
Persistent upward movement in initial claims may weaken the US dollar, as it signals slower growth and may reduce expectations for Fed tightening. Conversely, stable or lower claims could support the dollar.
US Government Bonds
Rising initial claims could prompt a flight to safety, pushing yields lower as demand for Treasuries increases. Stable or declining claims may help yields stabilise or modestly rise.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed will monitor these reports for clues on labor market momentum. Repeated increases in initial claims or elevated continued claims could nudge the Fed toward a more cautious or dovish stance, delaying any consideration of rate cuts.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report each Wednesday, detailing changes in crude oil and petroleum product inventories, production, refinery activity, imports, and exports. This report offers valuable insight into U.S. energy supply and demand dynamics.
Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending May 30)
Inventories fell sharply: commercial crude stocks dropped by 4.3 million barrels to 436.1 million, about 7% below the five‑year average, following stronger refinery activity (up 670 k bpd) and increased exports. Gasoline inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million, while distillate inventories jumped 4.2 million to 107.6 million barrels—despite a drop in demand for both amid a slow start to summer driving
What to Expect
A larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories could support oil prices, reflecting strong demand or export activity. Conversely, an unexpected build might exert downward pressure on prices, signaling weaker demand or increased supply. Similarly, significant changes in gasoline and distillate stocks will be closely monitored, as they provide insights into consumer behavior and economic activity. Market participants will also pay attention to refinery utilization rates and import/export balances for a comprehensive understanding of supply dynamics.
14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision & Summary of Economic Projections
The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision refers to the FOMC’s determination of the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy.
Accompanying the decision, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) provides FOMC participants’ outlooks for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the appropriate path for interest rates over the next few years.
Summary of the Latest Decision (May 7, 2025)
On May 7, 2025, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%, maintaining its “wait-and-see” stance amid growing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty tied to tariffs. Officials signaled patience while emphasizing the need to assess the impact of trade policy on price development and labour markets. The SEP showed most participants still expected two rate cuts in 2025, though several officials pulled back earlier expectations. Fed commentary noted rising risks of both inflation and unemployment — a scenario described as stagflation — with the central bank unwilling to act hastily until clearer data emerged
What to Expect
US Stocks
Markets will look for guidance on rate cut timing. Confirmation of two cuts remains in the SEP could lift risk assets; conversely, a more cautious outlook — stressing persistent inflation — might drag on sentiment, especially in rate-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
If the SEP shows fewer or delayed cuts, the dollar may strengthen on expectations of higher-for-longer rates. Clear messaging that policy will remain unchanged could also buoy the currency, while any dovish shift may weigh on it.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields are likely to respond to any tweaks in the SEP. A more hawkish tone or extended rate path would lift yields, whereas reaffirming the two-cut path could lead to yield compression. The auctions around this meeting will hinge heavily on the new guidance.
Federal Reserve Policy
Investors will parse the updated projections for growth, inflation, and the “dot plot.” Adjustments signaling fewer cuts or higher long-term rate expectations would hint at a more cautious policy path. The Fed’s emphasis on trade-driven stagflation risks suggests any shift in policy will remain very data-dependent.
Thursday 19th June
US Market Holiday: Juneteenth
US Exchanges are closed.
Bond markets are closed.
Futures Close early (13:00 ET)
FX Market Open (expect low liquidity)
