Morning Juice – US Session Prep (18th June)

Sentiment
A gauge of the dollar declined, and Treasury yields slipped before the Fed’s rate decision. Policymakers are expected to maintain their wait-and-see approach, but traders are beginning to amass bets there will be a dovish pivot after Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

GBP/USD rose as much as 0.4% to 1.3476. UK inflation remained at its highest level in over a year.

Iran and Israel exchanged fire for a 6th day after Trump met with his National Security team to discuss the escalating conflict, fuelling fresh speculation that Washington is on the verge of joining the attacks.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for May
Forecast: 1.35M | Prior: 1.361M | Range 1.4M / 1.3M

US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast: 245k | Prior: 248k | Range 257k / 238k

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -2.5M | Prior: -3.644M | Range 2M / -3.903M

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision
Analysts and market pricing indicates the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 4.5%

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
FOMC Rate Statement

Speakers & Events
09:00 ET
ECB’s Panetta speaks on “the challenges of this century: money in the digital era” at Young Factory event in Milan.

10:30 ET
ECB’s Nagel, Villeroy, Panetta, Knot, Escriva, and Centeno speak at a Round table at Young Factory Event in Milan.

11:15 ET
BoC’s Governor Macklem speaks in St. John’s.

11:40 ET
White House Crypto Czar Sacks Speaks

12:00 ET
Trump participates in a Swearing-In Ceremony for the Ambassador to the French Republic and Principality of Monaco
(Oval Office, Closed Press)

12:40 ET
BoC’s Governor Macklem holds a press conference.

13:00 ET
Trump has lunch with the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan
(Cabinet Room, Closed Press)

14:00 ET
ECB’s de Guindos speaks at Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori.

14:30 ET
FOMC Press Conference with Chair Powell following the US Interest Rate decision.

Good luck!