Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (23rd June – 27th June) – US
Monday 23rd June
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI June Prelim
The S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are monthly surveys measuring the health of the US manufacturing and services sectors.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
They incorporate data on new orders, output, employment, input prices, and delivery times, offering early insights into economic momentum.
Summary of the Latest Reports (May Final)
Manufacturing PMI: The final reading was 52.0, revised down from the preliminary 52.3, but still the highest since February. The gain largely reflected an unprecedented build in inventories ahead of tariff risks, even as output gains were modest; input costs also remained elevated
Services PMI: The final index rose to 53.7, up from April’s 50.8 and above the flash 52.3. Strength was broad-based—driven by domestic demand—though input-cost inflation hit its strongest in nearly two years.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Robust PMI signals may boost confidence in both cyclical and consumer-sensitive sectors. Manufacturing-led gains could lift industrials, while resilient services support consumer, technology, and financial stocks. That said, heightened input-cost inflation may erode margins, pressuring equities dependent on pricing power.
US Dollar
Stronger PMIs generally support the dollar through indicators of economic strength. However, persistent inflation pressure—especially in input prices—may add volatility, as markets reassess expectations for Fed policy.
US Government Bonds
Solid PMI figures could lift Treasury yields as investors anticipate sustained growth and possibly delayed rate cuts. At the same time, inflationary pressures may underpin higher yields due to inflation risk premiums.
Federal Reserve Policy
The dual strength in manufacturing and services—coupled with elevated input-cost inflation—reinforces the Fed’s cautious, data-driven stance. Strong labor-market signals from PMIs could lead officials to delay rate cuts, favoring a more sustained period at current levels.
10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales for May
The Existing Home Sales report, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), tracks the number of previously owned homes (including single-family homes, condos, and co-ops) sold during a given month.
It serves as a layered economic indicator, influencing consumer spending, construction activity, and financial markets.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
Existing home sales slipped 0.5% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units, the lowest April pace since 2009. Regional trends were mixed: the Northeast and West saw declines, while the Midwest remained flat and the South posted modest gains. Inventory rose to 1.45 million homes, a 20.8% increase year-over-year, providing more options for buyers. The median price reached $414,000, up 1.8% year-over-year
What to Expect
US Stocks
If sales continue to decline, it may weigh on homebuilder stocks, mortgage lenders, and related industries. A stabilisation or modest bounce could offer a boost, particularly for consumer-facing and cyclical sectors tied to housing activity.
US Dollar
Weak housing data could exert minor downward pressure on the dollar, reflecting concerns about consumer spending. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected rebound may support the dollar by signaling economic resilience.
US Government Bonds
Persistent weakness in home sales may drive investors toward Treasuries as a defensive play, pushing yields lower. A reassuring rebound could lead to modest yield increases amid improved growth sentiment.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed monitors housing data as part of its broader economic assessment. Continued softness may reinforce a cautious policy stance and delay potential rate cuts, while signs of recovery would reduce pressure to ease policy prematurely.
Tuesday 24th June
08:30 ET
Canadian CPI for May
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by Canadian consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services.
It is the primary gauge of inflation in Canada and is closely watched by the Bank of Canada as it guides monetary policy decisions.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
Canada’s headline annual inflation rate slowed to 1.7% in April from 2.9% in March, largely driven by a 12.7% drop in energy prices following the suspension of the federal carbon tax. Despite this deceleration, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) remained firm, rising to 2.9% from 2.5%, reflecting persistent pressures in services and travel-related categories. Food prices also continued to rise at a solid pace, and travel tour costs climbed by 6.7%, contributing to the sticky core inflation environment.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
Markets may respond positively if headline inflation continues to cool, as this could support expectations for rate cuts and a more accommodative stance from the Bank of Canada. However, sticky core inflation could temper gains, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A hotter-than-expected CPI print, particularly in core measures, could support the Canadian dollar as markets may scale back rate-cut expectations. Conversely, a weaker inflation reading may weigh on the loonie.
Government of Canada Bonds
If inflation continues to trend lower, yields on Canadian government bonds could decline on expectations of future monetary easing. However, strong core inflation might keep yields elevated as investors reassess the pace of potential rate cuts.
Bank of Canada Policy
The central bank remains data-dependent. Persistent strength in core inflation could lead policymakers to delay rate cuts. However, if headline and core inflation both show convincing signs of easing, the Bank may have more room to begin lowering rates later in the summer.
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for June
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index gauges the attitudes of American households regarding current and future economic conditions.
It is based on a monthly survey that measures consumers’ assessments of present-day business and labor market conditions (the Present Situation Index) as well as their short-term outlook for income, business, and employment (the Expectations Index).
A rising index typically signals stronger consumer spending ahead, a key driver of US economic growth.
Summary of the Latest Report (May)
In May, the headline Consumer Confidence Index rose to 102.0, up from 97.5 in April, marking a rebound after three consecutive monthly declines. The Present Situation Index increased to 147.3 (from 140.2), indicating improved perceptions of current business and labor market conditions. The Expectations Index also rose slightly to 74.6 (from 72.5), though it remained below the 80 threshold historically associated with recession risk. Inflation expectations edged down slightly, and buying plans for homes and appliances remained soft, reflecting persistent cost concerns.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected confidence reading could support consumer-driven sectors such as retail, travel, and discretionary goods, boosting broader equity markets. Conversely, a decline may weigh on sentiment-sensitive stocks.
US Dollar
Improved confidence could strengthen the dollar, as it suggests continued consumer resilience and may reduce expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts. Weak confidence, on the other hand, may lead to dollar softness.
US Government Bonds
A positive surprise may push bond yields higher as investors price in sustained economic momentum. A weaker reading could fuel demand for safe-haven Treasuries and push yields lower.
Federal Reserve Policy
Although not a primary policy driver, strong consumer confidence may be interpreted as a sign of economic durability, reducing urgency for rate cuts. Persistently weak confidence could increase pressure on the Fed to act if consumption shows signs of slowing.
Wednesday 25th June
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for May
New Home Sales measure the number of newly constructed single-family homes sold during the month. Published by the US Census Bureau, this indicator reflects demand in the housing market and offers insights into consumer confidence and broader economic conditions.
Because new home purchases are sensitive to interest rates and economic outlook, this data can signal shifts in both consumer behavior and monetary policy effectiveness.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
In April, new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, down from 665,000 in March and below market expectations. The decline was broad-based, with the South and West seeing the largest drop-offs. Rising mortgage rates and elevated home prices contributed to the pullback in buyer activity, while builders continued to offer incentives to offset affordability challenges. Despite the decline, supply levels remained relatively tight, keeping prices elevated.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A rebound in new home sales may lift homebuilder and construction-related stocks, signaling housing sector resilience. A continued decline, however, could weigh on sentiment in rate-sensitive sectors.
US Dollar
A stronger housing report might lend modest support to the dollar, suggesting steady economic momentum. Conversely, weakness in sales could raise concerns about housing-led slowdown, putting mild pressure on the currency.
US Government Bonds
Weak housing data may bolster demand for Treasuries as investors anticipate softer growth and potential policy easing. Strong data may have the opposite effect, nudging yields higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed is closely watching interest-rate-sensitive sectors like housing for signs of stress. While not a decisive policy input, persistent weakness in home sales may reinforce arguments for rate cuts later in the year, especially if broader demand indicators also soften.
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published by the US Energy Information Administration, measures the weekly change in the volume of commercial crude oil held by US firms.
It is a key supply-side indicator in the energy market and can significantly influence oil prices. Inventory levels help traders and analysts assess the balance between supply and demand, with implications for inflation and broader economic trends.
Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 7)
Crude oil inventories rose by 3.7 million barrels, defying expectations for a draw of approximately 1.5 million barrels. The surprise build was attributed to weaker refinery demand, higher imports, and possibly seasonal softening in gasoline consumption. Gasoline and distillate stocks also increased, reinforcing concerns about tepid demand. This led to a brief decline in oil prices, and energy sector equities came under pressure following the release.
What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A drawdown in inventories could support energy stocks by signaling strong demand and tighter supply. Conversely, another unexpected build may weigh on the sector by indicating potential oversupply or demand weakness.
Oil Prices
Oil prices typically react strongly to this report. A large draw may push prices higher on supply concerns, while a build may trigger a decline due to perceived excess or weak consumption trends.
Thursday 26th June
08:30 ET
US GDP QoQ Q1 Final (3rd Estimate)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ Annualized report measures the annualized percentage change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the US economy during a specific quarter.
The third estimate is the final revision for the quarter and incorporates more complete source data than the advance and second estimates.
This indicator provides a comprehensive view of the economy’s performance, including contributions from consumer spending, business investment, government outlays, and trade.
Summary of the Latest Report (Q1 Second Estimate)
In the second estimate, US GDP growth for Q1 was revised down to 1.3% from the initial 1.6%, reflecting softer consumer spending and downward revisions to inventories and net exports. The data pointed to a notable slowdown from Q4 2023’s 3.4% growth. Personal consumption was revised sharply lower to 2.0% from 2.5%, suggesting a loss of momentum in household demand. Business investment and government spending remained positive contributors, but the overall picture showed a decelerating economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Markets may react positively to an upward revision, especially if it points to stronger consumer or business activity. A weaker reading could weigh on investor sentiment by reinforcing concerns of economic deceleration.
US Dollar
A stronger GDP print may offer support to the dollar by suggesting resilience in the US economy. Conversely, a downward revision could pressure the dollar, particularly if it shifts expectations for Fed policy.
US Government Bonds
A softer GDP figure may prompt buying in Treasuries as investors seek safety, pushing yields lower. A firmer number could lead to modest yield increases on expectations of sustained economic strength.
Federal Reserve Policy
Unless the revision is significant, the third estimate typically has a muted impact on Fed policy outlook. However, a notable revision (especially downward) may reinforce the case for rate cuts later in the year, particularly if supported by soft inflation and labor data.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The US Weekly Jobless Claims report, published by the Department of Labor, tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time (initial claims) and those who continue to receive benefits (continued claims).
Initial claims reflect real-time changes in labor market conditions, while continued claims give insight into the duration of unemployment.
These indicators are closely monitored as timely measures of labor market health and can influence financial markets and economic policy expectations.
Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 8)
Initial jobless claims rose sharply to 242,000, the highest level since August 2023 and well above the prior week’s 229,000. Continued claims also increased to 1.82 million, indicating more persistent unemployment. The unexpected jump in initial claims raised questions about potential softening in the labor market, particularly in sectors sensitive to high interest rates. Markets reacted modestly, with bond yields pulling back slightly and Fed rate cut expectations nudging higher.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Another elevated reading could weigh on sentiment by signaling labor market softening, particularly for consumer-sensitive sectors. However, a normalization toward trend (around 215–225k) may reassure investors of ongoing labor market resilience.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected claims figure could weaken the dollar as markets price in increased odds of Fed easing. A lower print might lend some support to the dollar by reinforcing economic stability.
US Government Bonds
Weak labor data typically leads to increased bond buying, pushing yields lower. If claims ease back down, yields may rise slightly on reduced recession concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
While weekly claims are volatile, persistent upward movement in jobless claims could influence the Fed’s policy stance by reinforcing the view that the labor market is cooling. This would support the case for rate cuts later in the year.
Friday 27th June
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index & Consumer Spending for May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, capturing changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households.
It includes both headline PCE (all items) and core PCE, which excludes food and energy.
Core PCE is closely watched for underlying inflation trends, and is seen as the Fed’s poreferred gauge of inflation.
Consumer Spending, reported alongside PCE, reflects the total value of goods and services purchased by households and is a major driver of US economic growth, making up about two-thirds of GDP.
Summary of the Latest Report (April)
Headline PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, while core PCE also increased 0.2%, marking the smallest gain since December. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE eased slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%.
Consumer spending rose 0.2%, a slowdown from March’s 0.7% increase, driven primarily by services. Inflation-adjusted real spending was flat, signaling moderation in demand. This data supported the view that inflation is gradually cooling, helping reinforce expectations for possible Fed rate cuts later this year.
What to Expect
US Stocks
A softening in core PCE and moderate consumer spending would likely be welcomed by equity markets, reinforcing the case for policy easing and supporting valuations. A surprise uptick in inflation could spark volatility, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like tech.
US Dollar
If core PCE cools further, the dollar may weaken as markets price in increased odds of Fed rate cuts. Conversely, stronger-than-expected inflation could support the dollar by reducing the likelihood of near-term easing.
US Government Bonds
Cooling inflation and subdued consumer spending would likely push yields lower, as investors anticipate a more dovish Fed. If inflation surprises on the upside, yields could rise as markets push out expectations for rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
This release will be critical for gauging the Fed’s timing on rate cuts. A continued decline in core PCE toward the 2% target would reinforce the case for a cut as soon as September. However, sticky inflation could delay action and keep the Fed cautious.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations June Final
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gauges consumer confidence by surveying households on their perceptions of personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions, which helps forecast consumer spending trends.
It also reports 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, reflecting how consumers view short- and long-term inflation, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors for policy guidance.
Summary of the Latest Report (June Prelim)
In June’s preliminary release, consumer sentiment rebounded sharply to 60.5, up significantly from 52.2 in May and well above the forecast of 53.6, indicating a marked improvement in consumer outlook.
1-year inflation expectations fell to 5.1%, down from 6.6%, while 5-year expectations edged slightly lower to 4.1%, in line with forecasts and down from 4.2%, suggesting easing concerns about future inflation pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Improved consumer sentiment and lower inflation expectations may support consumer discretionary and retail stocks, potentially boosting broader market optimism.
US Dollar
Declining inflation expectations could weigh on the US dollar as markets anticipate a less aggressive Fed stance, but stronger sentiment might offset this somewhat.
US Government Bonds
Easing inflation expectations could push bond prices higher (yields lower), as investors see reduced inflation risk, though improved sentiment might temper this effect.
Federal Reserve Policy
Lower inflation expectations may increase expectations of Fed rate cuts, but improved consumer sentiment signals economic resilience, which could lead to a more cautious Fed approach
