Morning Juice – US Session Prep (25th June)

Sentiment
US stock futures and Treasuries held firm as traders awaited a second day of testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the Nasdaq 100 closed at an all-time high.

S&P 500 contracts were flat. The Nasdaq 100 was set to extend its record run, with index futures rising 0.2%.
Oil rebounded following the biggest two-day decline since 2022, with Brent crude trading 0.8% higher near $68 a barrel.
The dollar posted small gains.

Treasuries were little changed after the benchmark 10-year yield shed five basis points Tuesday, as Powell’s comments before House lawmakers and weak consumer data boosted bets on the pace of rate cuts in 2025.

Swap traders are currently pricing in a 15% probability of a quarter- point cut next month, with expectations for at least two reductions by year-end. Powell is due to appear in the Senate on Wednesday.

Following a turbulent stretch in financial markets that was sparked by a near two-week war between Israel and Iran, traders are shifting their focus back to the US economy and how trade risks and fiscal pressures could affect corporate earnings and growth.
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, with both sides claiming victory in the war.

With the S&P 500 trading within 1% of its all-time high after a sharp rebound from April’s tariff-driven turmoil, some analysts warn that complacency is setting in.
Risks remain elevated, including the potential for renewed geopolitical tensions and the looming tariff deadline set by US President Donald Trump, now just two weeks away, with little progress on trade deals.

Docket
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for May
Forecast: 0.694M | Prior: 0.759M | Range: 0.759M / 0.65M

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -2.5M | Prior: -11.473M | Range: 1M / -6.517M

13:00 ET
US sells $70 bln 5-Year Notes

Speakers
09:00 ET
Trump speaks at a press conference at NATO.

10:00 ET
Fed’s Powell testifies before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs for “The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.”
Text is expected (it is expected to be the same text from yesterday), as well as a Q&A.

Good luck!