Morning Juice – US Session Prep (30th June)
Sentiment
US stock futures rose as signs of progress in trade negotiations added to the upbeat sentiment that pushed the S&P 500 to a record high at the end of last week.
The dollar resumed its decline, falling as much as 0.4% against a basket of currencies to trade near three-year lows.
The US Treasury market is wrapping up its best monthly return since February, with the 10-year yield declining three basis points to 4.25%.
The de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, combined with data highlighting the US economy’s resilience, propelled the S&P 500 to a record high last week, marking a stunning rebound from April’s tariff-induced rout. Subdued inflation is also strengthening market expectations for interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance.
With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, officials say negotiations with major partners such as China and the European Union are making progress.
Talks with Canada are back on track after the country withdrew a digital services tax, while India’s trade team extended their stay in Washington to iron out differences.
In Washington, negotiations over Trump’s tax-cut bill are continuing as Republicans seek to convince holdouts to support it for final passage.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, weighing on the greenback.
Docket
09:45 ET
US Chicago PMI for June
Forecast: 42.9 | Prior: 40.56 | Range: 45 / 41.6
Speakers
09:40 ET
US Treasury Secretary Bessent speaks on BBTV
10:00 ET
Fed’s Bostic speaks on the US economic outlook during an event hosted by MNI Connect.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A.
13:00 ET
White House Press briefing with Press Secretary Leavitt.
Fed’s Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025, in Aspen, Colo.
14:30 ET
Trump signs Executive Orders
15:00 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde speaks in Sintra.
