S&P 500 Rises at the End of the Greatest Quarter Since 2023 – US Market Wrap

Wall Street bulls drove stocks to all-time highs at the end of a strong quarter, fueling hopes that the US is getting closer to reaching concrete agreements with key trading partners. Bets that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts fueled the best first-half performance for Treasuries in five years. The dollar experienced its longest monthly decline since 2017.

Following a nearly 25% increase from its April lows, the S&P 500 posted its best quarter since December 2023. The US equity benchmark surpassed the 6,200 mark on Monday, with technology leading the way. Apple grew the most among megacaps. Oracle jumped on a cloud-services deal worth $30 billion annually. Big banks rallied after passing the Fed’s annual stress test, paving the way for payouts.

Bonds rose in the days leading up to the US jobs report. Treasury Secretary Bessent said it wouldn’t make sense to increase sales of longer-term debt given current yields, but he expressed hope that rates across maturities would fall as inflation slows. Goldman Sachs now predicts a Fed cut in September, as the inflationary effects of tariffs “look a bit smaller” than expected.

A relative sense of calm prevailed at the end of a first half marked by wild swings on Wall Street due to Trump’s rapidly evolving trade war, global conflicts, recession fears, and concerns about a ballooning deficit that could jeopardize America’s status as a safe haven.

With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline quickly approaching, the European Union is willing to accept a deal with the United States that includes a 10% universal tariff on many of the bloc’s exports, but it wants key exemptions. Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Japan, citing the country’s unwillingness to accept US rice exports.