Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (30th June – 4th July) – US

Tuesday 1st July
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI June Final
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly economic indicator based on surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. It tracks changes in output, new orders, employment, supplier delivery times, and input prices. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Summary of the Latest Report (June Prelim)
The preliminary reading for June came in at 51.7, a modest decline from 51.3 in May, but still signaling expansion in the manufacturing sector for the third straight month.
Output growth remained positive, but firms reported slightly weaker demand conditions. Input cost inflation continued to moderate, while business confidence improved marginally.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A confirmation of manufacturing sector expansion may support investor sentiment, particularly in industrial and materials stocks. A downward revision, however, could weigh on cyclical sectors.
US Dollar
Stable or better-than-expected PMI data could support the dollar, reflecting resilience in the manufacturing sector. A downward surprise might apply modest pressure on the greenback.
US Government Bonds
Stronger manufacturing data could push yields slightly higher as markets price in reduced recession risk. Softer data may support bond prices if seen as growth-negative.
Federal Reserve Policy
Unless there’s a material deviation, the final PMI figure is unlikely to shift Fed policy expectations significantly, though continued resilience may give policymakers room to delay rate cuts.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator published by the Institute for Supply Management.
It surveys manufacturing executives on key aspects of business activity, including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Summary of the Latest Report (May)
In May, the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 from 49.2 in April, marking a return to contraction after a brief rebound in March. New orders and production both weakened, with new orders at 45.4 and production falling to 50.2. Employment remained subdued at 51.1, while prices paid rose sharply to 57.0, reflecting rising input costs. Overall, the report highlighted persistent headwinds in demand despite some signs of stability in employment and inventories.

What to Expect 
US Stocks
Another sub-50 reading could weigh on industrial and manufacturing stocks, signaling ongoing softness in factory activity. However, any rebound above 50 might boost investor confidence in cyclical sectors.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected report could put downward pressure on the dollar if it reinforces concerns about the manufacturing sector. A surprise to the upside might lend modest support.
US Government Bonds
Signs of manufacturing contraction may prompt a bid for safety, pushing yields lower. Conversely, stronger data could lift yields slightly as growth expectations firm up
Federal Reserve Policy
While the ISM Manufacturing PMI alone is unlikely to shift policy, persistent weakness may contribute to a broader picture of economic softness, supporting the case for eventual rate cuts later in the year.

10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for May
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures the number of job vacancies, hires, and separations across the U.S. economy.
It provides insight into labor demand and worker mobility.
High levels of job openings generally indicate strong labor demand, while a decline may signal softening employment conditions.

Summary of the Latest Report (April)
In April, job openings fell to 8.06 million, down from a revised 8.36 million in March. This marked the lowest level since February 2021 and continued a broader trend of gradual softening in labor demand. The quits rate held steady at 2.2%, while the hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.5%, both consistent with a cooler—but still resilient—labor market.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A further decline in job openings could be interpreted as easing labor market tightness, which may be welcomed by equity markets as it reduces pressure on wages and inflation. However, a sharp drop might raise concerns about a weakening economy.
US Dollar
Softer labor market data may weigh on the dollar, especially if it adds to expectations of a Fed pivot toward rate cuts. Conversely, a surprise uptick in openings could bolster the dollar slightly.
US Government Bonds
Weaker-than-expected job openings would likely support bond prices as it may reinforce expectations for future rate cuts, pushing yields lower. Stronger data could have the opposite effect.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed watches labor market data closely. A continued decline in openings would align with the Fed’s goal of rebalancing the labor market without triggering a spike in unemployment, potentially increasing confidence in the case for rate cuts later in the year.

Wednesday 2nd July
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for June
The ADP National Employment Report measures monthly changes in private-sector employment in the U.S., relying on anonymized payroll data from ADP clients. It serves as a leading indicator ahead of the official BLS nonfarm payrolls release.

Summary of the Latest Report (May)
In May, ADP data showed 37,000 jobs added, the smallest monthly gain since March 2023 and well below expectations of around 110,000. Job additions in leisure/hospitality (+38k), financial activities (+20k), and information (+8k) were offset by declines in professional/business services (-17k), education/health services (-13k), trade/transportation/utilities (-4k), and manufacturing (-3k).
Despite weak job growth, wage growth remained steady, with job-stayers seeing year-over-year pay rise by 4.5%, and job-changer wage growth holding at 7.0%, consistent with prior months.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If ADP shows continued weak job gains, industrial and consumer-sensitive stocks could come under pressure. However, stable or improving wage growth might support earnings expectations in consumer-facing sectors.
US Dollar
Soft employment data may dampen the dollar as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increase. Conversely, sustained wage growth could help underpin the dollar by keeping inflation—and thus rate expectations—elevated.
US Government Bonds
A weaker ADP report could prompt bond buying on fears of slowing growth, pushing yields lower. However, persistent wage pressure may limit the yield decline, reflecting balanced inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed will view this as another signal of labor market cooling. Continued weak job growth paired with steady wages may reinforce the case for delaying rate cuts, while persistent wage inflation could encourage a cautious policy stance.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, issued every Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), tracks weekly changes in commercial crude oil stocks. It offers key insight into supply-demand dynamics in the oil market and often influences oil prices and energy equities.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 13)
Commercial crude inventories plunged by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels, marking the largest weekly draw since mid-2024 and placing stock levels approximately 10% below the 5-year seasonal average. The dramatic decline was attributed to a large drop in net imports (down 1.75 mbpd) and a surge in exports (+1.07 mbpd), alongside modest declines in refinery inputs. At the same time, gasoline inventories edged up slightly (+0.2 mb), while distillates climbed by 0.5 mb, remaining below average.

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
A continued crude draw would likely lift energy sector equities, reinforcing the narrative of solid demand. Conversely, any reversal to inventory builds could weigh on energy stocks and suggest softening demand.
Oil Prices
Markets are likely to react strongly: a further significant draw could propel oil prices higher, while an unexpected build may pressure prices, especially if it suggests waning demand.

Thursday 3rd July
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for June
The Employment Situation report, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), covers key labor-market indicators, including:
Nonfarm Payrolls: total employment excluding the farming sector, private households, and nonprofits.
Unemployment Rate: the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking work.
Average Hourly Earnings: average wage rate per paid hour, signaling wage inflation and labor market tightness.

Summary of the Previous Release (May 2025)
Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000, compared with downward‑revised gains of 147,000 in April and 185,000 in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with labor‑force participation dipping to 62.4% amid a 696,000 drop in household employment. Wage growth remained solid: average hourly earnings increased by $0.15 (0.4%) to $36.24, a 3.9% year-over-year rise. Job gains were led by health care (+62,000), leisure & hospitality (+48,000), and social assistance (+16,000), while federal government payrolls declined (-22,000)

What to Expect
US Stocks
Modest job growth—around the 139k–150k range—should maintain investor confidence, particularly in consumer-driven and cyclical sectors. A surprise drop in payrolls might weigh on equities, while an unexpected surge could boost sentiment.
US Dollar
Steady hiring and stable wages are likely to support the US dollar, as they maintain a view of economic resilience. However, if payrolls disappoint, the dollar could soften as market bets on Fed cuts intensify.
US Government Bonds
Bond yields may hold steady or rise slightly on solid job growth, but could fall if the report shows labor-market cooling. Persistent upward wage pressure would limit significant yield declines.
Federal Reserve Policy
A labor market showing signs of moderation—but still robust—may reinforce the Fed’s data-driven stance, allowing for retained pause on rate cuts. Soft payrolls or weakening participation could nudge markets toward anticipation of policy easing later in the year.

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI June Prelim
The S&P Global US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the performance of the U.S. services sector based on monthly surveys of private sector companies. It gauges business activity across services industries such as finance, hospitality, and consumer services. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 suggest contraction.

Summary of the Latest Report (May Final)
The S&P Global US Services PMI for May was finalized at 53.7, stronger than the preliminary estimate and significantly above April’s 51.3 reading. This indicated the fastest pace of growth in the services sector in over a year, with new business expanding solidly and firms increasing employment. While cost pressures remained, input inflation showed signs of easing. Business confidence was also resilient, pointing to sustained activity ahead.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If the services sector remains resilient, equity markets may see continued support, particularly among consumer and tech sectors. A surprise slowdown, however, could introduce short-term volatility.
US Dollar
A robust services PMI may offer support to the dollar by reinforcing confidence in U.S. economic momentum. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the greenback modestly.
US Government Bonds
Persistent strength in services may push yields higher, as markets weigh inflationary implications. Conversely, signs of easing activity could attract demand for Treasuries, lowering yields.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed remains highly attentive to services-driven inflation. If June’s report signals further strength in activity or prices, it could complicate expectations for rate cuts later in the year. A softer reading may support the case for easing.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for June
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the US services sector. It is based on monthly surveys of purchasing and supply executives across various industries, including finance, insurance, real estate, and professional services. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

Summary of the Latest Report (May Final)
In May, the ISM Services PMI registered at 49.9, indicating a slight contraction in the services sector for the first time since June 2024. This was a decline from the April reading of 51.6. The downturn was attributed to a decrease in new orders and elevated input costs, which were partly driven by tariffs. Despite the contraction, the employment index remained steady at 50.7, suggesting stable hiring conditions within the sector.

What to Expect (June)
US Stocks
A reading below 50 could weigh on investor sentiment, particularly in consumer-facing and cyclical sectors. Conversely, a rebound above 50 would likely bolster confidence in the services-driven economy.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected PMI might exert downward pressure on the dollar, especially if it raises concerns about economic growth. A stronger-than-expected reading could provide modest support to the dollar.
US Government Bonds
A soft PMI report could lead to increased demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower as investors seek safe-haven assets. A robust PMI might have the opposite effect, nudging yields higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed closely monitors services sector activity as part of its broader economic assessment. A continued contraction could influence the Fed’s stance on interest rates, potentially supporting the case for rate cuts if economic weakness persists.