Morning Juice – US Session Prep (2nd July)

Sentiment
US equity futures held firm as traders await June’s payrolls report on Thursday and navigate how trade talks develop ahead of the Trump administration’s July 9th deadline.

Contracts for the S&P 500 ticked higher after the US benchmark paused its record-breaking rally during the previous session. Futures for the small-cap Russell 2000 rose to outperform as Tuesday’s rotation out of high-momentum stocks extended.
European stocks advanced.

As the US continues talks with key trading partners. Trump has turned up pressure on Japan and reaffirmed he won’t delay his tariff deadline, now just a week away.
While markets swung wildly on trade headlines in April, equity indexes are now signaling diminished concern with stocks near record highs.

Data so far this week has affirmed the resilience of the US economy in the face of Trump’s tariff agenda. Tomorrow, the monthly payrolls report will offer investors fresh insight into the labor market and the path of interest rates.

US Treasuries retreated across the curve as investors pared bets on the size of interest rate cuts for the rest of the year, with the 10-year yield rising four basis points to 4.28%.

Swaps now imply about 63 basis points of Fed policy easing by year-end, down from 67 basis points on Tuesday before data unexpectedly showed that US job openings rose to the highest since November.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for June
Forecast: 95k | Prior: 37k | Range: 130k / 20k

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -3.107M | Prior: -5.836M | Range: -2M / -6.647M

Speakers
10:30 ET
ECB’s President Lagarde delivers closing remarks in Sintra for the ECB Central Banking Forum 2025.

Good luck!