Morning Juice – US Session Prep (3rd July)

Sentiment
Bonds rebounded and shares held steady ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show a slowdown in US hiring against the backdrop of Trump’s trade war.

US Treasuries rose modestly after Wednesday’s heavy selling, when fiscal concerns about the UK dragged global bonds lower.
The yield on 10-year US government debt declined two basis points to 4.26%.
The rate on similarly dated gilts fell nine basis points as UK Chancellor Reeves received backing from Prime Minister Starmer.

Futures for the S&P 500 were flat on the back of another record high for the US benchmark.
The dollar was little changed, while the pound rose after suffering Wednesday’s worst performance among major currencies.
US stock trading is set to close at 1 PM ET for the July 4th holiday, with bond dealing wrapping up an hour later.

Thursday’s cross-asset moves underscored cautious optimism as traders contend with areas of uncertainty ahead of the employment report that will help identify the path ahead for Federal Reserve interest rates.
A weak report may boost Fed doves and support stocks near record highs, while stronger data could complicate the outlook.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for June
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 106k | Prior: 139k | Range: 160k / 70k
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.3% | Prior: 4.2% | Range: 4.4% / 4.2%
Average Earnings YoY – Forecast: 3.8% | Prior: 3.9% | Range: 4% / 3.7%

US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 241k | Prior: 236k | Range: 250k / 235k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.962M | Prior: 1.974M | Range: 2M / 1.925M

US Trade Balance for May
Forecast: -$71B | Prior: -$61.6B | Range: -$64.2B / -$75B

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for June
Forecast 50.7 | Prior 49.9 | Range: 52.2 / 49

US Factory Orders MoM for May
Forecast 8.2% | Prior -3.7% | Range: 11.5% / -0.5%

Speakers
11:00 ET
Fed’s Bostic speaks on monetary policy at IMFS in Frankfurt.
Text and Q&A expected.

Good luck!