Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (7th July – 11th July) – US

Monday 7th July
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 8th July
No noteworthy economic indicators

Wednesday 9th July
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report, published each Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, tracks the weekly change in U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles. This is a major supply-side indicator for the oil market, influencing prices and energy-sector dynamics.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 20)
Crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million, far exceeding expectations of a 797k-barrel draw and marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline.
The inventory level is now approximately 11% below the five-year seasonal average
Refinery activity increased: crude input rose by 125k bpd to about 17 mbpd, with utilization at ~94.7%, the highest since July 2024

What to Expect 
Energy Stocks
A continued drawdown would likely lift oil and energy equities by reinforcing the view of tight supply and healthy demand. Conversely, a rebound in inventories could trigger a pullback in those sectors.
Oil Prices
Oil is expected to remain sensitive: another large inventory fall may push prices higher, while any unexpected build could cause prices to dip.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes for the June Meeting
The FOMC Meeting Minutes provide a detailed account of the discussions and views shared by Federal Open Market Committee members during their June policy meeting (June 17–18, 2025). Released three weeks after the meeting, they offer insights into the Fed’s assessment of economic conditions, inflation, labor trends, and the timing of future rate adjustments.

Summary of the June Meeting Rate Statement 
Policymakers noted that inflation had slowed modestly, but remained above target, particularly due to continued input cost pressures—some tied to tariffs. Members emphasized that uncertainty around trade and tariffs was elevated

Economic growth was described as solid, but projections were downgraded, reflecting a slower path (2025 GDP forecast cut to ~1.4%) and a modest rise in the unemployment projection to around 4.5%
investors.com

The Fed reaffirmed its “wait-and-see” policy stance, holding the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50% and retaining expectations for two rate cuts later in 2025, although several participants indicated a preference for no cuts this year

What to Expect 
US Stocks
Minutes indicating policymakers leaning toward data dependency—balancing growth softness with persistent inflation—are likely to keep equity markets cautious. Markets could see modest volatility as investors adjust expectations around the timing and pace of potential rate cuts.

US Dollar
Persistent inflation concerns, especially those tied to tariffs, may maintain dollar strength if investors continue to expect the Fed to delay cuts. Any hints in the minutes downplaying inflation risks could lead to a slight weakening of the dollar.
US Government Bonds
Treasury yields are likely to remain volatile. A deliberately cautious tone (“higher for longer”) may push yields upward, while a dovish tilt or recognition of economic slowdown could prompt yield declines on safe-haven demand.
Federal Reserve Policy
The minutes reinforce a balanced and data-driven approach. The Fed remains poised to act but is awaiting clearer signs on inflation impact and growth resilience. Markets will interpret any shift in emphasis—especially around trade risks or inflation stickiness—as a signal for the outlook on rate cuts.

Thursday 10th July
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report, released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continued Jobless Claims reflect those who remain on benefits, offering insight into the duration of unemployment. These metrics are closely watched as leading indicators of labor market health and economic trends.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 21)
Initial Claims: Fell by 10,000 to 236,000, down from a revised 246,000 the previous week
Continued Claims: Increased to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, up from 1.937 million in the prior week .
The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to around 245,000 .
This data suggests a moderate cooling in the labor market: fewer new filings but an uptick in ongoing unemployment.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If initial claims rise meaningfully or continued claims remain elevated, markets may react negatively, especially in consumer-focused sectors. A decline in initial claims could support investor sentiment.
US Dollar
A sustained uptick in claims could weaken the dollar as expectations grow for Fed easing. Conversely, a drop in initial claims may provide modest support to the currency.
US Government Bonds
Rising claims often lead to increased demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower. If claims decrease, yields could edge up as recession fears ease.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent high continued claims may reinforce expectations that the Fed will delay rate hikes or consider easing later in the year. Conversely, cooling claims could ease pressure on the Fed to intervene.

Friday 11th July
08:30 ET
Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate for June
This monthly report from Statistics Canada details two vital labour market indicators:
Employment Change: the net increase or decrease in the number of employed persons.
Unemployment Rate: the percentage of the labour force without work but actively seeking employment.
These metrics offer a timely snapshot of trends in job creation and household income stability.

Summary of the May Report
In May, Canada’s labour market saw modest employment growth, with +8,800 jobs added, showing a plateau following earlier gains in the year. Full-time employment rose (+58k), offsetting the decline in part-time roles (–49k). The unemployment rate edged up to 7.0%, a slight increase from 6.9% in April, marking the highest rate since September 2016 (excluding COVID). Wage growth remained steady, with average hourly earnings up 3.4% year-over-year, and total hours worked were flat. Weakness was particularly noted in manufacturing (–12.2k jobs) and public administration (–32k), while the wholesale and retail trade sectors rebounded (+43k).

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
Markets may react positively to stronger employment growth, especially in consumer-driven sectors and retail. However, rising unemployment could pressure economically sensitive stocks, particularly in manufacturing and financials.
Canadian Dollar
A surprise drop in the unemployment rate or stronger job additions could support the CAD by signaling economic resilience. Continued weakness may weigh modestly on the loonie amid growth concerns.
Government of Canada Bonds
If unemployment rises further or employment growth slows, bond yields may decline as markets anticipate a more dovish Bank of Canada. Stronger labour data may push yields modestly higher.
Bank of Canada Policy
Persistent weakness in employment and rising unemployment could strengthen expectations for BoC rate cuts. However, stable wage growth may give policymakers room to delay easing, balancing inflation pressures with growth concerns.