Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (14th July – 18th July) – US

Monday 14th July
No noteworthy Economic Indicators scheduled

Tuesday 15th July
08:30 ET
US CPI for June
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), tracks the average change in prices urban consumers pay for a typical basket of goods and services. It’s a widely used measure of inflation and helps guide Federal Reserve policy, social benefits, and contracts.

Summary of the Latest Report (May)
Headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, and 2.4% year-over-year, slightly above April’s 2.3%.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also increased by 0.1%, maintaining an annual rate of 2.8%—both figures came in softer than expectations (0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY).
Weakness was broad-based: goods prices like used cars and apparel declined, travel prices dropped (airfare –2.7%, hotel –0.1%), while shelter costs remained elevated.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Continued low inflation may support equities, especially interest-rate sensitive sectors.
Any inflation upside surprises could introduce volatility in consumer and financial stocks.
US Dollar
Softer inflation trends may pressure the dollar as markets price in delayed rate cuts.
A stronger-than-expected CPI could briefly strengthen the dollar on renewed Fed tightening expectations.
US Government Bonds
Cooling inflation data typically pulls Treasury yields lower.
A surprise pickup could drive yields higher as inflation fears resurface.
Federal Reserve Policy
The mild CPI print supports the Fed’s cautious, data-driven approach, strengthening the case for rate cuts later in the year.
However, persistent shelter inflation or unexpected upside may prompt the Fed to delay policy easing timelines.

Wednesday 16th July
08:30 ET
US PPI for June
The Producer Price Index (PPI), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures average changes over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It’s an early indicator of inflation, reflecting price shifts at the wholesale level and often signaling future trends in consumer inflation.

Summary of the Latest Report (May)
PPI (final demand) rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% forecast, rebounding from the sharp 0.5% drop in April
On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.6%, modestly up from 2.5% in April
PPI for final demand goods increased by 0.2%, while services PPI edged up 0.1%
Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) advanced 0.1%, with the annual core rate at 2.7% (below 3.0% forecast)

What to Expect
US Stocks
A continued tame PPI print may boost equity markets by signalling lower inflation and reducing input-cost pressures. But any unexpected acceleration—especially in goods or services—could inject volatility, particularly in industrials and materials sectors.
US Dollar
A softer-than-expected PPI supports the dollar by implying diminished rate-hike or prolonged rate-hold expectations. If inflation data comes in hotter, it could strengthen the dollar via repriced Fed policy outlooks.
US Government Bonds
Muted PPI figures typically lead to lower Treasury yields as inflation risks ease. A surprise uptick could reverse this, pushing yields higher on inflation repricing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent softness in PPI strengthens the Fed’s flexibility to consider rate cuts later in the year. However, any signs of rising wholesale inflation, especially in core components, may encourage a more cautious approach and delay easing.

09:15 ET
US Industrial Production for June
The Industrial Production report, published monthly by the Federal Reserve, tracks real output from the US manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.
It also reports capacity utilization, showing how much of available industrial capacity is in use. This data is a key indicator of economic momentum and the health of the industrial sector.

Summary of the Previous Report (May)
Total industrial production declined by 0.2% month-over-month, following a modest 0.1% uptick in April.
Manufacturing output edged up 0.1%, propelled by a strong 4.9% increase in motor vehicle and parts production; other manufacturing sectors fell about 0.3%.
Mining output was flat at +0.1%, while utilities output dropped 2.9%, largely due to milder weather.
Year-over-year, industrial output was 0.6% higher, while capacity utilization fell to 77.4%, roughly 2.2 percentage points below its long-run average.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A rebound in overall industrial production—especially broader manufacturing strength—would likely buoy industrial and basic materials stocks. Continued weakness could pressure these sectors further.
US Dollar
Strengthening industrial output may support the U.S. dollar by reinforcing economic growth expectations. Persistent softness could limit dollar gains.
US Government Bonds
Improved production data may push Treasury yields higher as investors anticipate stronger growth. If data disappoints, demand for safe-haven Treasury bonds could increase, driving yields lower.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong industrial rebound could reduce pressure on the Fed to cut rates soon, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” stance. Ongoing weakness would support arguments for a more accommodative later-in-the-year policy.

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report (released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration each Wednesday) tracks commercial crude oil stock levels. It’s a key signal of U.S. supply and demand dynamics, impacting oil prices and energy market sentiment.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 27)
Crude inventories surged by 3.8 million barrels to 419.0 million, the first build following six consecutive weekly draws, and about 9% below the five-year average
The build resulted from a sharp rise in imports (+976 kbpd to 6.9 mbpd) and a steep drop in exports (-2 mbpd to 2.3 mbpd), while production held steady at ~13.4 mbpd
Gasoline stocks rose by 4.2 million barrels to 232.1 million, despite expectations of a draw, as gasoline demand declined from 9.7 to 8.6 mbpd, the lowest since last year
Distillate inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 103.6 million, remaining about 21% below the five-year average
Refinery throughput increased by 118 kbpd, with utilization rising slightly to 94.9%

What to Expect
Energy Stocks
Another unexpected inventory build could pressure energy-sector equities by signaling weaker demand. In contrast, renewed draws would likely bolster sentiment and support energy names.
Oil Prices
Oil prices are sensitive to inventory swings: another surprise build may weaken prices, while a substantial draw in next week’s report could spark a rally, driven by tightening supply signals.

Thursday 17th July
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for June
Retail Sales measure total receipts at U.S. retail stores and food service businesses, providing a timely indicator of consumer spending trends, which account for roughly two-thirds of economic activity.

Summary of the Previous Report (May)
Retail Sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, the most significant drop in four months, below the expected decline of 0.7% and following a revised 0.1% dip in April
The decline was broad-based: motor vehicle & parts dealers dropped 3.5%, building materials & garden equipment fell 2.7%, gasoline stations slid 2.0%, and food services & drinking places declined 0.9%
However, core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) rose 0.4%, indicating resilient discretionary spending in categories like furniture (+1.2%), sporting goods (+1.3%), clothing (+0.8%), and online sales (+0.9%)

What to Expect
US Stocks
Investors will monitor whether core retail sales continue to hold up. Another drop could pressure consumer-facing and cyclical stocks, while resilience may bolster equities.
US Dollar
Soft retail data may weaken the dollar by reinforcing expectations for slower economic momentum and potential Fed rate cuts. A stronger print could support the currency.
US Government Bonds
Tepid retail sales may drive demand for Treasury bonds, pushing yields lower. Conversely, a rebound in consumer spending could lead to yield increases.
Federal Reserve Policy
June data will be closely scrutinized for signs of a slowing consumer sector. Continued spending softness may strengthen expectations for rate cuts later in 2025, while signs of resilience could delay Fed easing.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week, offering early insight into layoffs and labor market health.
Continued Jobless Claims (or insured unemployment) track those who remain on benefits for multiple weeks, providing context on the duration of unemployment.

Summary of the Latest Report (Week Ending June 28th)
Initial Claims decreased by 4,000 to 233,000, coming in below the forecast of 240,000, and marking the lowest reading in six weeks
Continued Claims remained elevated at 1.964 million, unchanged from the previous week and the highest level since November 2021
The 4‑week moving average of initial claims declined to 241,500, down from 245,250 the week before, indicating a slight easing in labor market stress
This data suggests a labor market that remains stable overall—with fewer new layoffs offset by persistent longer-term unemployment.

What to Expect (Week Ending July 5th)
US Stocks
A sustained rise in initial or continued claims could strain consumer-centric and cyclical stocks, while a further decline in initial claims might help bolster equity sentiment.
US Dollar
Increasing jobless claims could soften the dollar as they heighten expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A drop in claims may offer modest support to the currency.
US Government Bonds
Elevated claims often drive investor demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower. A decline in claims may reduce safety flows and push yields modestly higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent elevated continued claims may influence the Fed to maintain a cautious approach and potentially delay policy tightening. A softening in initial claims could be seen as validation of economic resilience, supporting a more balanced policy stance.

Friday 18th July
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for June
Housing Starts measure the number of new residential construction projects (including single-family and multi-family homes) that begin each month in the U.S., based on data from the Census Bureau and HUD. This indicator provides insight into builder confidence, housing demand, and broader economic trends.

Summary of the Previous Report (May)
Total housing starts fell by 9.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.256 million units, marking a five-year low and coming in well below expectations (Census, Zillow)
Single-family starts edged up slightly by 0.4% to 924,000, but remain 7.3% below year-ago levels
Multi-family starts plunged roughly 30%, to about 316,000 units, following gains over the prior three months
Building permits dropped 2.0% to 1.393 million, the lowest since June 2020, signaling weaker construction intentions ahead
High mortgage rates (~6.8%) and tariff-driven input costs weighed heavily on builders, as evidenced by the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index falling to a two‑and‑a‑half‑year low in June

What to Expect
US Stocks
A continued slump in housing starts, especially in multi-family units, may weigh on homebuilder and construction-related stocks. A rebound—particularly in single-family starts—could lift sentiment in these sectors.
US Dollar
While housing data tends to have only a minor direct effect on the dollar, significant weakness could bolster safe-haven demand, slightly supporting the currency.
US Government Bonds
Persistent weakness in housing activity may drive investors toward longer-term Treasury bonds, pushing yields lower as growth concerns increase. A rebound may push yields modestly higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed monitors housing as a key interest-rate-sensitive sector. Continued softness in starts may reinforce caution on rate cuts this year. A stabilization or rebound would ease pressure on the central bank to alter its current policy stance.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey July Prelim
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures U.S. consumers’ confidence in both current and future economic conditions, surveying around 500 households each month. It includes readings on personal finances, business outlooks, and major purchase plans.
The report also covers 1‑year and 5‑year inflation expectations, which indicate consumer beliefs about near-term and long-term inflation trends. These readings are important in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

Summary of the Latest Report (June Final)
Sentiment Index rose to 60.7, up from 52.2 in May and marginally above the preliminary June figure of 60.5, marking its first increase in six months
Current Economic Conditions improved to 64.8 from 58.9, while Index of Consumer Expectations rose to 58.1 from 47.9
1‑Year Inflation Expectations dropped significantly to 5.0%, down from 6.6% in May
5‑Year Inflation Expectations fell to 4.0%, slightly lower than May’s 4.2%

What to Expect
US Stocks
Consumer-facing sectors (retail, housing, autos) may benefit from rising sentiment, though sustained consumer caution could cap gains. Equity markets are likely to respond to trends in inflation expectations.
US Dollar
Falling inflation expectations may pressure the dollar, as markets recalibrate outlooks for Fed rate cuts. However, stronger sentiment might provide some support.
US Government Bonds
Declining inflation expectations typically push yields lower, especially the short end of the curve, as markets anticipate rate cuts. A rebound in inflation expectations could lift yields.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed closely monitors inflation expectations. Sustained declines—especially if also seen in other data—would reinforce the case for rate cuts. Continued optimism without inflation risk may allow the Fed to pause before easing.