Morning Juice – US Session Prep (15th July)

Sentiment
Stocks advanced after NVIDIA secured US assurances to resume sales of some artificial intelligence chips to China, lifting sentiment on a busy day that also features inflation data and big bank earnings.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100  and the S&P 500 gained. NVIDIA strengthened more than 5% in early trading.
Bitcoin fell as traders took profit after a record-setting surge.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.41%, with government bonds rising broadly in positioning-led moves ahead of June’s consumer price index report.
The dollar dropped 0.2%.

The approval of export licenses for the H20 chip not only boosts NVIDIA’s earnings prospects but also bodes well for progress in trade talks between the White House and key partners. With stocks trading near record highs, investors will gain a clearer read on corporate health as major banks mark the unofficial start of earnings season.

In a first set of earnings figures, JPMorgan’s investment bankers eked out a surprise gain in the second quarter, signaling what may be the start of a dealmaking rebound.

After months of seeing little inflation, CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along higher costs of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
The options market is betting the S&P 500 will swing 0.6% in either direction after the release, based on the cost of at-the-money puts and calls, according to Citigroup.

Docket
08:30 ET
US CPI for June 
YoY Forecast 2.6%, Previous 2.4% Range 2.7% / 2.5%
MoM Forecast 0.3%, Previous  0.1% Range 0.4% / 0.1%
Core MoM Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1% Range 0.4% / 0.1%
Core YoY Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8% Range 3.1% / 2.8%

Canadian CPI for June
YoY Forecast 1.9%, Previous 1.7% Range 2% / 1.8%
MoM Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.6% Range 0.2% / 0%

Speakers & Events
09:00 ET
BoE Gov. Bailey Text Release

09:15 ET
Fed’s Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Federal Reserve Board’s Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference. Text: Yes Q&A: No

12:45 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks on financial inclusion at Federal Reserve Board’s Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference Text: Yes Q&A: No

13:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin will repeat the speech “Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data” that he first gave June 26. Text: Yes Q&A: Yes with audience

14:30 ET
Trump participates in the Inaugural Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Event.

14:45 ET
Fed’s Collins delivers the closing keynote at the 2025 Economic Measurement Seminar in Washington DC Text: Yes Q&A: No

16:00 ET
BoE’s Gov. Bailey speaks at the annual speech at the financial and professional services dinner at Mansion House text release at 9 AM ET

Good luck!