Morning Juice – US Session Prep (16th July)

Sentiment
US stock futures pared earlier losses as solid earnings helped counter concerns about a steady stream of tariff headlines.
S&P 500 contracts were little changed after falling as much as 0.4%. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America advanced more than 1% in premarket on record-setting trading revenues. Johnson & Johnson rose 1.2% after lifting its full-year outlook. Morgan Stanley shares posted a small loss.

US Treasuries fluctuated. Japan’s super-long bonds rebounded following a sharp selloff earlier in the week, as investors weighed the potential for increased fiscal spending after this weekend’s upper house election. The dollar was little changed.

Trump signaled that tariffs on pharmaceuticals could be introduced by the end of the month, with similar measures on semiconductors potentially to follow. Traders further pared bets to their lowest level in a month for two US interest rate cuts this year, while Trump aide Kevin Hassett has emerged as the early frontrunner to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In the UK, inflation unexpectedly climbed to its highest level since early 2024, driven by rising food prices. The pound strengthened as traders scaled back expectations for further monetary easing by the Bank of England following a probable quarter-point cut in August. Gilts declined.

Docket
08:30 ET
US PPI for June
YoY – Forecast: 2.5%, Prior: 2.6%, Range: 3.1% / 2.4%
MoM – Forecast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%, Range: 0.8% / 0.1%
Core YoY – Forecast: 2.5%, Prior: 2.6%, Range: 3.1% / 2.4%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%, Range: 0.4% / 0%

09:15 ET
US Industrial Production MoM for June
Forecast: 0.1%, Prior: -0.2%, Range: 0.5% / -0.3%

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -1.8M, Prior: 7.07M

14:00 ET
Fed’s Beige Book

Speakers & Events
08:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin repeats the speech “Forecasting Beyond Today’s Data”
Text and Q&A are expected.

09:15 ET
Fed’s Hammack speaks at Cuyahoga Country Community College at the 20th anniversary business breakfast.
Text is expected, but no Q&A.

10:00 ET
Fed’s Barr speaks at a Brookings event on financial regulation.
Text and Q&A are expected.

11:00 ET
Trump greets the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain

11:15 ET
Trump participates in a Bilateral Meeting with the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bahrain.

15:00 ET
Trump participates in a Bill Signing Ceremony.

15:30 ET
Fed’s Bostic speaks on Fox Business Network

18:30 ET
Fed’s Williams gives a keynote speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

Good luck!