Morning Juice – US Session Prep (17th July)

Sentiment
Following Wednesday’s surge in concern about Fed Powell’s future, the Dollar recovered as dip-buyers stepped in. Tech stocks edged higher.

The Dollar rose, maintaining its month-to-date gains, aided by diminishing forecasts of interest-rate decreases in 2025.
Equities in Europe and Asia climbed as TSMC raised its revenue growth forecast, boosting confidence in the strength of AI spending. Nasdaq 100 futures rose.

Speculation about Powell’s future roiled markets on Wednesday, before Trump dismissed the possibility of replacing him.
Trump, who has long advocated for lower interest rates, has made no secret of his displeasure with the Fed Chairman.

US Treasury rates moved higher across the curve as markets signalled that the Fed’s wait-and-see attitude to policy easing would likely prevail.
Swaps are pricing fewer than two quarter-point cuts this year, down from a possible three at the beginning of the month.

Meanwhile, Trump has toned down his criticism towards China in the hopes of organising a summit with President Xi and achieving a trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy.
He also stated that he would send letters to over 150 countries informing them of potential 10% or 15% tariff charges.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales MoM for June
Forecast: 0.1% | Prior: -0.9% | Range: 0.7% / -0.5%

US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 233k | Prior: 227k | Range: 240k / 220k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.965M | Prior: 1.965M | Range: 1.98M / 1.954M

Speakers & Events
09:00 ET
Fed’s Kugler speaks on housing and the US economic outlook at event hosted by the Housing Partnership Network Symposium.
Text is expected, but no Q&A.

12:45 ET
Fed’s Daly appears on BBTV

13:00 ET
White House Press Briefing with Press Sec. Leavitt.

13:30 ET
Fed’s Cook speaks on AI and innovation at National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Summer Institute: Digital Economics and Artificial Intelligence.
Text and Q&A are both expected.

16:00 ET
Trump signs Executive Orders (Closed Press)

Good luck!