Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 21st – 25th July (US)
Wednesday July 23rd
10:00 ET
US Existing Home Sales June Report
US Existing Home Sales measure the number of previously owned homes sold during the month.
This report, published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is a key indicator of housing market health and broader consumer confidence.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Strong home sales can boost real estate stocks, home improvement retailers, and mortgage lenders. Weak sales may weigh on these sectors, signalling softer consumer demand.
US Dollar
A resilient housing market can support the dollar, reflecting economic strength. A slowdown in sales may weaken the dollar if it signals broader economic softness.
US Government Bonds
Higher home sales may push bond yields up, as they suggest economic resilience. Weak sales could lead to lower yields, reflecting potential economic cooling.
10:30 ET
Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
What is it?
The US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, normally released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, details the amount of crude oil held in storage across the United States. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market.
What to expect?
An increase in inventories suggests higher supply or lower demand, potentially leading to lower oil prices. Conversely, a decrease indicates lower supply or higher demand, which can drive prices up.
Thursday 24th July
08:30 ET
US Initial Jobless Claims & Continued Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, while Continued Jobless Claims track those who remain on unemployment benefits.
Released weekly by the Department of Labor, these figures provide a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Initial claims reflect short-term changes in layoffs, while continued claims indicate the pace of rehiring.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Lower-than-expected claims signal a strong labor market, boosting equities, while higher claims may spark concerns about slowing job growth and pressure stocks.
US Dollar
A strong labor market, reflected in lower jobless claims, can support the USD by reinforcing confidence in the economy, whereas rising claims can weaken the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
A decline in claims may push yields higher as it suggests economic resilience, while an increase can lower yields due to expectations of a softer economy and potential Fed easing.
09:45 ET
US S&P PMI
The US S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports provide key insights into business conditions in both the services and manufacturing sectors. These indices are based on surveys of purchasing managers and track changes in output, new orders, employment, and prices.
S&P Services PMI: Measures business activity, employment trends, and demand within the services sector, which makes up a significant portion of the US economy.
S&P Manufacturing PMI: Tracks factory output, new orders, supply chain conditions, and overall manufacturing activity, offering insights into industrial sector health.
S&P Composite PMI: A weighted average of both services and manufacturing PMIs, providing a broader view of economic performance.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. These reports are closely watched for early signs of economic shifts.
What to Expect
US Stocks: Strong PMI readings can boost equities, particularly in industrial, manufacturing, and consumer-driven sectors, reflecting business confidence. Weak data may weigh on these sectors, signaling slowing economic momentum.
US Dollar: Higher PMI figures can support the dollar, as they indicate economic resilience and reduce expectations of interest rate cuts. A decline may pressure the dollar, increasing concerns about slowing growth.
US Government Bonds: Strong PMI data may push bond yields higher, as it suggests economic expansion and potential inflationary pressures. A weaker reading could lead to lower yields, reflecting softer growth expectations and potential Fed easing.
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales
What is it?
US New Home Sales measures the annualised number of newly constructed single-family homes sold in a given month. It is a key indicator of housing market strength and overall economic health, as higher sales suggest strong consumer demand and confidence, while lower sales may indicate economic uncertainty or affordability challenges. The report is released monthly by the US Census Bureau and is considered a leading indicator for the housing sector and broader economy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher Sales → Signals strong housing demand and economic growth → Bullish for homebuilders, construction, and financial stocks (e.g., mortgage lenders).
Lower Sales → Suggests weaker consumer confidence or higher borrowing costs → Bearish for housing-related stocks and may signal broader economic slowdown.
US Dollar
Higher Sales → Indicates economic strength, supporting USD appreciation, especially if it reinforces expectations of higher rates.
Lower Sales → Could weigh on the dollar if it signals slowing growth and increases expectations of Fed rate cuts.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher Sales → May push yields higher, as strong demand could lead to inflationary pressures and reduce expectations of Fed easing.
Lower Sales → Could lead to lower yields, as weaker housing demand raises concerns about economic slowdown and potential Fed cuts.
Friday July 25th
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods Orders
US Durable Goods Orders measure the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers for long-lasting goods (those expected to last three years or more), such as automobiles, appliances, and aircraft. The report, released monthly by the US Census Bureau, provides insight into business investment trends and consumer demand. A core measure, which excludes volatile transportation orders, is often used for a clearer view of underlying demand.
What to Expect
US Indices
Strong durable goods orders can lift equities, particularly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, signalling robust business spending. Weak orders may raise concerns about slowing economic activity.
US Dollar
A positive surprise in durable goods orders can support the USD by suggesting economic strength, while a decline may weigh on the currency.
US Government Bond Yields
Higher durable goods orders can push yields up, as they indicate stronger economic momentum and potential inflationary pressures. Weak data may lower yields by increasing expectations for monetary easing.
