Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (Europe)

Hey, Traders!
For the July 21st week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the EU Session, with a brief synopsis of what they represent and what to possibly expect from the markets in reaction.

Thursday
French, German, Eurozone, UK PMI’s
Manufacturing
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
Services
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are compiled into a single index which can range between zero and 100.
Composite
The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in both sectors (manufacturing and services).
What to expect:
A reading above 50 signals rising activity versus the previous month and the closer to zero the faster is activity contracting. The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as bullish for the GBP/EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as bearish for the GBP/EUR.

ECB Interest Rate
The European Central Bank (ECB) sets monetary policy for all members of the Eurozone. The highest decision-making body is the Governing Council which comprises the six members of the Executive Board and the 19 presidents of member central banks. Policy meetings take place roughly every six weeks but, due to the sheer number of participants, a rotation system has been introduced so that the total number of votes is capped at twenty-one.
The most traditional operations are what we call the Main Refinancing Operations (MRO). When liquidity is needed, a bank can borrow directly from the ECB. Every week, banks of the Eurozone go (virtually) to the ECB desk to borrow money at the refinancing rate fixed by the ECB. The loan is made under the form of a Repurchase Operation (Repo). The bank sells security assets to the ECB and borrows money. One week later, the bank gives the money back with interest to the ECB and recovers its security assets.
What to expect:
Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish.

Fruday
UK Retail Sales
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data include all internet business whose primary function is retailing and also cover internet sales by other British retailers, such as online sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies. Headline UK retail sales are reported in volume, not cash, terms but are available in both forms. The data are derived from a monthly survey of 5,000 businesses in Great Britain. The sample represents the whole retail sector and includes the 900 largest retailers and a representative panel of smaller businesses, including internet sales. Collectively, all of these businesses cover approximately 90% of the retail industry in terms of turnover.
What to expect:
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

German IFO
Business Climate
The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the IFO Institute for Economic Research.
Expectations
German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
Current Conditions
The German Current Assessment rates current business conditions in Germany, without considering future expectations. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.