Morning Juice – US Session Prep (24th July)

Sentiment
The dollar ticked higher, while Treasuries bear-steepened, as Trump suggested that 15% would be the floor for reciprocal tariff rates.

AUD/USD led G10 gains after trading as much as 0.4% higher at 0.6625, the strongest since November 8th. RBA’s Governor Bullock downplayed market expectations for a rate cut.

EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1752 ahead of the ECB’s decision. With policy expected to remain on hold, traders are on the lookout for signs that easing will restart in September.

USD/JPY declined 0.4% to 145.86 before erasing the move to trade 0.1% higher at 146.64. Leveraged funds sold the pair after US Commerce Sec. Lutnick said Fed’s Powell should resign or be replaced, according to Asia-based FX traders.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 226k | Prior: 221k | Range: 235k / 210k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.954M | Prior: 1.956M | Range: 1.975M / 1.94M

Canadian Retail Sales for May
MoM – Forecast: -1% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: -0.1% / -1.7%
Core MoM – Forecast: -0.3% | Prior: -0.3% | Range: 2.7% / -1.1%

09:45 ET
US S&P PMIs July Prelim
Manufacturing – Forecast: 52.7 | Prior: 52.9 | Range: 53.8 / 52
Services – Forecast: 53 | Prior: 52.9 | Range: 53.5 / 52.4
Composite – Forecast: 52.8 | Priort: 52.9 | Range: 53.2 / 52

13:00 ET
US to sell $21 bln 10-Year TIPS

Speakers
08:45 ET
ECB Press Conference with President Lagarde following the ECB Interest Rate Decision.

15:00 ET
Trump signs Executive Orders and Congressional Bills

16:00 ET
Trump visits the Federal Reserve

Good luck!