Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 28th July – 1st August (US)
Monday 28th July
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 29th July
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for June
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), produced monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks labor demand via the total number of job vacancies. It also reports hires, quits, layoffs, and separations. Job openings indicate employer willingness to fill positions and highlight labor market dynamics ahead of changes in employment.
Summary of the Latest Report (May 2025)
Job openings rose to 7.769 million, up from 7.395 million in April, exceeding forecasts of around 7.32 million — the highest level since November 2024
Rate of job openings remained at 4.6%, little changed from April
Hiring fell by approximately 112,000 to 5.503 million, while layoffs declined by 188,000 to 1.601 million
Analysts describe the labor market as operating in a “no‑hire/no‑fire” mode—employers retain staff but hesitate to expand payrolls
What to Expect
US Stocks
Elevated job openings signal sustained labor demand, which may support confidence in consumer-facing and cyclical equity sectors. However, rising layoffs or a sharp drop in openings could dampen sentiment.
US Dollar
Stronger-than-expected labor demand (via job openings) may bolster the dollar, as markets anticipate a more resilient economy. Softening openings could weaken the USD by dampening growth expectations.
US Government Bonds
High job openings may put upward pressure on bond yields, reflecting stronger labor demand and inflation expectations. A decline in openings could lead to yield softness as growth concerns rise.
Federal Reserve Policy
The Fed views job openings as a leading labor indicator. Elevated openings support a case for holding rates steady or delaying cuts, while signs of weakening demand could shift the Fed toward policy easing later in the year.
10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for July
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® measures U.S. household sentiment regarding current business and labor market conditions (the Present Situation Index) and expectations for the next six months (the Expectations Index). It reflects consumers’ spending sentiment and anticipated financial and economic changes.
Summary of the Latest Report (June)
The headline Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, down 5.4 points from May’s revised 98.4, marking the sixth decline in seven months—erasing nearly half of May’s rebound gains.
Present Situation Index dropped to 129.1, down 6.4 points, indicating weakening views on current economic and job conditions.
The Expectations Index fell to 69.0, down 4.6 points, remaining well below the 80‑level that typically signals recession risk. All three sub‑components—business conditions, job availability, and income expectations—slid further.
12‑month inflation expectations eased to 6.0%, down from 6.4% in May, reflecting reduced concerns over rapid price raises.
What to Expect
US Stocks
Continued deterioration in consumer sentiment may weigh on retail, consumer discretionary, and travel-related equities. If confidence stabilizes, sectors tied to consumer spending may see a modest lift.
US Dollar
Falling inflation expectations could dampen dollar strength by softening prospects for aggressive Fed rate moves. However, ongoing caution in sentiment may provide offsetting support for the currency.
US Government Bonds
Lower inflation expectations and deteriorating sentiment may boost demand for Treasuries, putting downward pressure on yields. Stability in confidence could limit that yield compression.
Federal Reserve Policy
A weakening erosion in sentiment—especially if tied to job and income outlooks—may reinforce expectations for a slower, more cautious Fed rate cut path. Declining inflation concerns may provide cover for policymakers to ease later in the year.
Wednesday 30th July
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for July
The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly estimate of private-sector job gains or losses, derived from anonymized payroll data covering millions of employees. While not directly comparable to the official BLS jobs report, it serves as an early indicator of labor market momentum.
Summary of the Latest Report (June)
Private payrolls declined by 33,000 jobs, the first monthly drop since March 2023—well below the forecasted gain of +99,000
Job losses were concentrated in professional & business services (–56,000) and education & health services (–52,000), while manufacturing added 15,000, leisure & hospitality gained 32,000, and construction added 9,000
Annual pay growth held steady: 4.4% year-over-year for job-stayers and 6.8% for job-changers, down slightly from 7.0% previously
What to Expect
US Stocks
A decline in ADP private-sector jobs signals a cooling trend that may unsettle cyclical and consumer-centric stocks. Regional strength in manufacturing and leisure helps cushion sentiment, but services-sector weakness could weigh.
US Dollar
Soft ADP payrolls may dampen the dollar by reinforcing expectations for delayed rate cuts. Stable wage growth, however, may limit downside by keeping inflation expectations elevated.
US Government Bonds
Weaker employment data may support demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower. Wage inertia could curb sharp declines in yields, reflecting continued inflation risk.
Federal Reserve Policy
ADP’s sharp private-sector job losses add to signs of labor market cooling. Combined with other labor metrics, this may strengthen the case for rate cuts later in the year, though steady wage growth might cause the Fed to remain cautious in the near term.
08:30 ET
US GDP Q2 Prelim & Price Index Component
The U.S. Quarterly GDP Preliminary (“Advance”) Report is the first official estimate of national economic output for a quarter, measuring real GDP growth at an annualized rate.
It also includes the GDP Price Index Components, which measure inflation embedded in overall GDP through price changes in consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports.
These indicators are key to assessing growth momentum and inflation trends closely watched by markets.
Summary of Last Report (Q1 Final)
Real GDP growth (annualized): −0.5%, revised from prior estimates of −0.3% and −0.2%
GDP Price Index (for gross domestic purchases): +3.4%, slightly up from earlier estimates
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index: +3.7% annualized
Core PCE (excluding food & energy): +3.5% annualized
The downturn reflected a sharp rise in imports and a decrease in government spending, partly offset by modest gains in consumer spending and investment. Underlying private domestic demand grew at only a 1.9% pace, signaling weaker household and business momentum despite a front-loading of activity driven by tariff-related stockpiling.
Inflation remained elevated, with both headline and core metrics well above the Fed’s 2% target.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If Q2 GDP is higher than expected, stocks may rise on improved growth sentiment; if it’s lower, equities could fall amid recession concerns and weaker earnings outlooks.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected print should strengthen the USD, as it reinforces expectations of resilient growth and potential Fed firmness; a weaker outcome would likely weaken the dollar given lower growth and easing pressure.
US Government Bonds
If GDP growth is higher, bond prices may drop (yields rise) due to heightened inflation and hawkish rate expectations; if lower, bond prices may rise (yields fall) as markets anticipate dovish Fed policy or possible rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
A better-than-expected Q2 GDP may sustain a hawkish Fed stance or delay cuts, while a weaker Q2 reading could increase the prospects for rate cuts or signal a more dovish tone, particularly if inflation metrics soften in parallel.
09:45 ET
Bank of Canada Interest Rate & Rate Statement
The Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Announcement delivers the Governing Council’s decision on the overnight policy rate, typically eight times per year.
The accompanying Monetary Policy Report (MPR) provides the Bank’s quarterly outlook on inflation, economic growth, and risks influencing future policy.
Summary of Last Report (June 4th Decision)
The overnight rate remained unchanged at 2.75%, marking the second consecutive hold following rate cuts from 3.00% in early 2025
Governors cited persistent inflation pressures, notably core inflation running above target, alongside unemployment cooling slightly and some labour market They also highlighted uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff threats and trade disputes, which continue to dampen business and household sentiment.
What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
If the rate decision is more hawkish than expected, equities—especially risk-sensitive Canadian‑listed components—could dip due to increased borrowing costs and muted growth expectations; if dovish, markets could rally, perceiving easier future financial conditions.
Canadian Dollar
A hawkish surprise (i.e. signaling no cuts or projecting persistence of higher rates) would likely strengthen the CAD, while a dovish tone or signals of rate cuts could weaken the CAD as rate-derivative traders price in policy easing
Government Bonds
If the tone is hawkish, Canadian government bond yields may rise (prices fall) as markets prepare for tighter policy; if dovish, yields could fall (prices rise) on easing expectations, especially if cuts are signaled.
Bank of Canada Policy
A hawkish outcome could underpin a stance of continued policy neutrality or delay any additional rate cuts; a dovish read—especially hints at September or later cuts—may increase confidence in future rate reductions and a more accommodative tone
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report measures the change in commercial crude oil barrel stocks held in the U.S., excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, it signals shifts in crude supply-demand balance and often triggers immediate price swings if the data diverges significantly from expectations
Summary of Last Report
Actual change: −3.2 million barrels (drawdown)
Forecast: −1.6 million barrels
Previous week: −3.859 million barrels
Crude inventories fell sharply—far exceeding forecasts—down 3.2 million barrels to about 419 million, which is roughly 9% below the five‑year seasonal average. Gasoline stocks also declined by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate fuel stocks rose by 2.9 million barrels, remaining well below typical levels
What to Expect
Oil Prices
If inventories decline more than expected, oil prices are likely to rally sharply due to tightening supply sentiment; if the draw is smaller than expected or stocks build unexpectedly, prices may sell off on signals of weaker demand
Energy Stocks
If the inventory drop is larger than forecast, energy stocks—especially integrated oil producers and refiners—may advance as higher prices and tighter supply prospects improve margins; if inventories fall less than expected or rise, energy equities could slide amid fear of weakening demand or price pressure.
14:00 ET
FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Rate Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate—the benchmark short-term rate that influences borrowing costs across the economy.
The accompanying Rate Statement offers insight into the Fed’s assessment of inflation, employment, economic conditions, and the committee’s outlook on policy adjustments.
Summary of Last Report (June 17–18 Decision)
The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth straight hold.
The Statement highlighted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace, labor market conditions remained strong, and inflation was persistently elevated.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) penciled in two quarter‑point rate cuts by year-end, though seven of 19 participants projected no cuts.
Several members—including Governors Waller and Bowman—are expected to dissent in favor of rate cuts at the upcoming July meeting, underscoring internal policy debate.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the July statement is more dovish than expected (e.g., signaling rate cuts or highlighting economic weakness), U.S. equities may rally as cheaper borrowing costs support valuations; if the tone is more hawkish—stressing further inflation risks or delaying cuts—stocks could dip amid yield curve and margin concerns.
US Dollar
A hawkish surprise—such as resistance to cuts or renewed concerns over inflation—would tend to strengthen the USD, while a dovish shift, especially signals of cuts or slower growth, could weaken the dollar on lowered rate expectations.
Government Bonds
A dovish surprise is likely to boost bond prices (yields fall) as markets price in earlier or greater rate cuts; conversely, a more hawkish stance—maintaining rates or pushing back cuts—could push yields higher and bond prices lower.
Federal Reserve Policy
If the statement leans dovish—emphasizing economic slowdown or weaker inflation—this could raise confidence in rate cuts beginning in the autumn; if it leans hawkish, stressing inflation risks and uncertainty, the Fed may maintain the current neutral stance and delay any cuts.
Thursday 31st July
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for June
The PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, measuring changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy, provides a clearer view of underlying inflation trends and is closely monitored in policy decisions.
Summary of Last Report (May)
Headline PCE rose 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations; year-over-year, it stood at +2.3%
Core PCE increased 0.2% month-over-month—slightly above consensus—and was +2.7% year-over-year, also marginally higher than forecasts (estimated at 2.6%)
Consumer spending fell 0.1%, and personal income dropped 0.4%, pointing to weakening demand even as inflation metrics remained elevated.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If PCE (headline or core) comes in higher than expected, equities may dip, as stronger inflation data raises concerns about persistent Fed tightening; if lower than expected, stocks could rise on prospects of reduced inflation pressure and eventual rate relief.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected inflation print would likely strengthen the USD, as markets anticipate extended rate firmness; if PCE is weaker, the dollar may weaken on easing expectations and reduced federal funds trajectory.
Government Bonds
If the inflation readout is above forecasts, bond prices may fall (yields rise) in anticipation of slower rate cuts or extended tightening; if below, bond prices tend to rise (yields fall), reflecting expectations for future easing and lower inflation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger-than-expected PCE reading may prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone or delay rate cuts beyond current projections; if PCE comes in weaker, especially if softening proves persistent, it will raise confidence in rate cuts beginning as early as September or later in 2025.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week, while Continued Claims track those still receiving benefits in subsequent weeks. Released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, these reports are high-frequency labor market indicators that help assess emerging trends in employment, though only initial claims are seen as leading indicators.
Summary of Last Report (Week ended July 19th)
Initial claims (SA): 217,000 (seasonally adjusted), down 4,000 from prior week—lowest level since mid‑April and below economists’ forecast of ~227,000
4‑week moving average (initial claims): 224,500, down 5,000
Continued claims (SA): 1,955,000, up 4,000 from the previous week
4‑week average (continued claims): 1,954,000, down roughly 2,250
Markets recognized weakening labor demand—firms scale back on hiring rather than firing—while the rise in continuing claims signals longer spells of unemployment for some.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If initial claims come in higher than expected, equities may decline, signaling rising layoffs and labor-market stress; if they are lower than expected, stocks could advance, reflecting sustained job market resilience.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected initial claims reading may weaken the USD, as it suggests softening in the economy and lower Fed rate expectations; if claims drop more than expected, the dollar could strengthen due to firmer labor-market sentiment.
Government Bonds
If the data is weaker than forecast, bond prices may rise (yields fall) on expectations of looser monetary policy; if initial claims are stronger than expected, yields may rise (prices fall) as markets price out rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger-than-expected initial claims may support a more dovish Fed policy, possibly bringing forward rate-cut timing; weaker-than-expected claims would reinforce hawkish tilt and delay policy easing until the labor market shows signs of deterioration.
Friday 1st August
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for July
This monthly report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) details:
Nonfarm Payrolls: Change in total nonfarm employment.
Unemployment Rate: Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
Average Hourly Earnings: Measures monthly and annual wage growth trends.
It is a key gauge of labor market conditions and influences Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Summary of Last Report (June)
Nonfarm Payrolls: +147,000 jobs, above consensus (~110,000) and the trailing 12‑month average of ~146,000. Both April and May were revised up by a total of +16,000.
Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, down from 4.2%, partly due to a shrinking labor force. This remains within a narrow range of 4.0%–4.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): +0.2% month‑over‑month (to $36.30), with year‑over‑year growth at +3.7%, slightly slower than May’s 3.8%.
Private-sector hiring was soft (+74,000 jobs), while state and local government drove gains (total government up 73,000, including +40,000 in education). Federal government employment continued to decline.
The mixed picture—modest growth, cooling wages, and a weaker labor force—suggests gradual slowing but still stable conditions.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If nonfarm payrolls or wage growth comes in stronger than expected, equities could dip, as investors weigh slower policy easing; if figures are weaker than expected, stocks may rally, anticipating easing pressure and Fed support.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected result—whether payrolls, lower unemployment, or wage strength—would likely boost the USD, while weaker-than-expected data may weaken the dollar reflecting reduced rate-cut expectations.
Government Bonds
If the data is stronger than forecast, bond prices typically fall (yields rise) as investors expect less chance of near-term rate relief; conversely, weaker-than-expected results tend to lift bond prices (yields fall) on hopes of dovish policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger employment and wage growth may reinforce a more hawkish Fed stance, delaying any rate cuts; softer labor and pay metrics could increase confidence that rate cuts may be considered later in 2025, potentially starting around September.
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI July Final
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey of approximately 600 manufacturing firms, assessing factors such as new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times, and inventories. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Summary of Last Report (July Prelim)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.5, down from 52.9 in June, indicating contraction for the first time since December 2024.
Key Drivers: Declines in new orders and production were noted, with export orders falling for the third time in four months.
Inflationary Pressures: Rising input costs and selling prices were reported, contributing to concerns about inflation.
Business Confidence: Deteriorated, with companies expressing concerns over the impact of government policies, especially regarding federal spending cuts and tariffs.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the PMI comes in lower than expected, equities may decline, reflecting concerns over manufacturing sector weakness; if it is higher than expected, stocks could rally, indicating stronger-than-anticipated manufacturing activity.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected PMI may weaken the USD, as it suggests economic slowdown; a stronger-than-expected PMI could strengthen the dollar, indicating robust manufacturing performance.
Government Bonds
A lower-than-expected PMI may boost bond prices (lower yields), as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty; a higher-than-expected PMI could pressure bond prices (higher yields), as it may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
A weaker-than-expected PMI may support a dovish Fed stance, potentially leading to rate cuts; a stronger-than-expected PMI could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, possibly delaying rate cuts.
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. It measures manufacturing sector conditions including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
Summary of Last Report (June)
Manufacturing PMI: 49.0, up from 48.5 in May, indicating a slight easing in the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Key Drivers:
New Orders: 46.4, down from 47.6 in May, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction.
Production: 50.3, up from 45.4 in May, returning to expansion territory.
Employment: 45.0, down from 46.8 in May, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing employment.
Supplier Deliveries: 54.2, down from 56.1 in May, suggesting slower delivery performance.
Inventories: 49.2, up from 46.7 in May, indicating a slight increase in inventory levels.
Prices: 69.7, up from 69.4 in May, reflecting continued inflationary pressures.
Export Orders: 46.3, up from 40.1 in May, showing a modest improvement.
Imports: 47.4, up from 39.9 in May, indicating a recovery in import activity.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If the PMI comes in lower than expected, equities may decline, reflecting concerns over manufacturing sector weakness; if it is higher than expected, stocks could rally, indicating stronger-than-anticipated manufacturing activity.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected PMI may weaken the USD, suggesting economic slowdown; a stronger-than-expected PMI could strengthen the dollar, indicating robust manufacturing performance.
Government Bonds
A lower-than-expected PMI may boost bond prices (lower yields), as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty; a higher-than-expected PMI could pressure bond prices (higher yields), as it may lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
A weaker-than-expected PMI may support a dovish Fed stance, potentially leading to rate cuts; a stronger-than-expected PMI could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, possibly delaying rate cuts.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations July Final
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers provide monthly insights into U.S. consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. The Consumer Sentiment Index gauges households’ perceptions of current and future economic conditions, while Inflation Expectations measure anticipated price changes over the next year and five to ten years.
Summary of Last Report (July Prelim)
Consumer Sentiment Index: 61.8, up from 60.7 in June, marking the highest level in five months but still below the historical average of 84.4 .
Current Economic Conditions: 66.8, up from 64.8 in June, indicating improved perceptions of the present economic environment .
Consumer Expectations: 58.6, up from 58.1 in June, reflecting a modest improvement in future economic outlooks .
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.4%, down from 5.0% in June, the lowest since February 2025 .
5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.6%, down from 4.0% in June, also the lowest since February 2025 .
What to Expect
US Stocks
If sentiment improves more than expected, equities may rally, reflecting increased consumer confidence; if it improves less than expected, stocks could decline, indicating weaker consumer outlook.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected sentiment may strengthen the USD, as it suggests robust domestic demand; a weaker-than-expected sentiment could weaken the dollar, indicating potential economic slowdown.
Government Bonds
A higher-than-expected sentiment may pressure bond prices (raise yields), as it could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy; a lower-than-expected sentiment may boost bond prices (lower yields), as it suggests economic caution.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger-than-expected sentiment may support a hawkish Fed stance, potentially leading to rate hikes; a weaker-than-expected sentiment may reinforce a dovish Fed stance, possibly delaying rate hikes.
