Morning Juice – US Session Prep (30th July)

Sentiment
Stocks struggled for direction in the hours before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision as traders tackled a heavy load of major company earnings.

S&P 500 contracts were little changed in the lead-up to die decision on interest rates, which have become a cause of contention between the White House and Fed Chair Powell. The Dollar Index snapped a four-day rally that followed trade pacts with die European Union and Japan.

Fed policymakers are largely expected to hold rates steady for a fifth consecutive meeting in the face of sustained pressure from President Donald Trump on Powell to lower borrowing costs. Investors will watch for any signs of a greater openness from the Fed to easing when it next gathers in September as they take stock of the number of dissenting policymakers.
Swap markets have priced around 100 basis points of easing over the next 12 months.

Before the Fed, GDP figures will offer an update on the health of the American economy in the buildup to Friday’s key payrolls report.
The relentless rush of big earnings continues in the US later, with Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms both reporting.

On the trade front, there were signs of rapprochement between the US and China.
Trump is set to make the final call on maintaining their tariff truce before it expires in two weeks, an extension that would mark a continued stabilization in ties between the world’s two biggest economies.
Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters in Stockholm the two sides had agreed to prolong the pause, without providing further details.

Docket
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for July
Forecast: 75k | Prior: -33k | Range: 180k / 25k

08:30 ET
US GDP Q2 Advance 
GDP QoQ – Forecast: 2.5% % | Prior: -0.5% | Range: 4.5% / 1%
GDP Price Index – Forecast: 2.2% | Prior: 3.8% | Range: 2.8% / -1%
Core PCE – Forecast: 2.3% m| Prior: 3.5% | Range: 2.5% / 2.2%

US Treasury Quarterly Refunding

09:45 ET
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Forecast sees rates remaining unchanged at 2.75%.
Bank of Canada Rate Statement

10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -3.175M | Prior: -3.169M | Range: 1M / -3M

14:00 ET
US Interest Rate Decision 
Forecast sees rates remaining unchanged at 4.5%
FOMC Rate Statement

Speakers
10:30 ET
Bank of Canada press conference with Governor Macklem following the BoC Rate Decision

13:30 ET
Trump signs Congressional Bill

14:30 ET
FOMC Press Conference with Chair Powell following the FOMC Rate Decision

16:00 ET
Trump delivers remarks on Making Health Technology Great Again

Earnings
16:00 ET
Qualcomm Q3 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $2.71
Est. ​Rev: $10.33B

16:05 ET
Microsoft Q4 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $3.37
Est. Rev:$73.89B

Meta Platforms Q2 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $5.89
Est. Rev: $44.83B

Ford Q2 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $0.32
Est. Rev: $44.14B

Ebay Q2 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $1.30
Est. Rev: $2.6B

Good luck!