Morning Juice – US Session Prep (1st August)

Sentiment
Global stocks extended a selloff as President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs fuelled concerns about the outlook for economic growth.

Futures on the S&P 500 retreated, suggesting the underlying gauge will extend a three-day run of declines.
Amazon slumped as much as 8% in premarket trading as its underwhelming earnings introduced a note of caution amid a generally upbeat reporting season for tech megacaps.

The dollar edged higher along with Treasury yields after Trump fired his latest salvo at the Federal Reserve, saying in a social-media post the institution’s board should “assume control” if Chair Powell doesn’t lower interest rates.
Traders are also bracing for key US jobs data later Friday.

The US President announced a slew of new levies, including a 10% global minimum and 15% or higher duties for countries with trade surpluses with America, as he forged ahead with his turbulent effort to reshape international commerce.
Questions about the impact on growth and inflation are starting to overshadow the AI-driven optimism that has buoyed megacap technology stocks

Trump’s baseline rates for many trading partners remain unchanged at 10% from the duties he imposed in April, easing the worst fears of investors after the president had previously said they could double.
Yet, his move to raise tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% threatens to inject fresh tensions into an already strained relationship.

The average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier – and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before Trump took office.

Docket
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for July
Nonfarm Payrolls – Forecast: 105k | Prior: 147k | Range: 170k / 0
Unemployment Rate – Forecast: 4.2% | Prior: 4.1% | Range: 4.3% / 4%
Average Earnings YoY – Forecast: 3.8% | Prior: 3.7% | Range: 3.9% / 3.4%

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI July Final
Forecast: 49.7 | Prior: 49.5 | Range: 52.7 / 49.5

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July
Mfg. PMI – Forecast: 49.5 | Prior: 49 | Range: 52 / 48.2
Prices Paid – Forecast: 70 | Prior: 69.7 | Range: 70.2 / 67.7
Employment – Forecast: 46.8 | Prior: 45 | Range: 47.1 / 46.2

University of Michigan Survey July Final
Sentiment – Forecast: 62 | Prior: 61.8 | Range: 64 / 60.5
1-Year Inflation – Forecast: 4.4% | Prior: 4.4% | Range: 4.4% / 4.3%
5-Year Inflation – Forecast: 3.6% | Prior: 3.6% | Range: 3.6% / 3.5%

Good luck, and have a good weekend!