Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 11th – 15th August (US)
Monday 11th August
No noteworthy economic indicators
Tuesday 12th August
08:30 ET
US CPI for July
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures price changes for a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. The headline CPI includes all items, while core CPI excludes food and energy for insight into underlying inflation trends. This report, monthly from the BLS, remains a major inflation benchmark that influences markets and policy.
Summary of Last Report (June)
Headline CPI (m/m): +0.3%, the largest monthly gain since January.
Headline CPI (YoY): +2.7%, up from 2.4% in May.
Core CPI (MoM): +0.2%, slightly above the previous month’s +0.1%.
Core CPI (YoY): +2.9%, modestly above May’s 2.8% and just under the 3.0% forecast.
Detail: Shelter increased 0.2% m/m, contributing to the bulk of headline inflation. Energy rose 0.9%, led by a 1.0% gain in gasoline. Food rose 0.3%.
The June report showed inflation rising more than expected, with early signs of tariff-driven price pressures emerging in categories like household furnishings and recreation. Core inflation remained elevated, reinforcing caution toward Fed policy.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If CPI comes in higher than expected, equities may decline as inflation pressures could delay Fed rate cuts; if inflation is lower than expected, markets may rally on expectations of easing monetary policy.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected CPI will likely strengthen the USD, as markets brace for sustained rate pressure; a softer CPI may weaken the dollar on potential for earlier Fed easing.
Government Bonds
If inflation surprises to the upside, bond prices typically fall (yields rise) amid reduced expectations for near‑term cuts; if CPI is weaker than anticipated, bond prices may rise (yields fall) as easing becomes more likely.
Federal Reserve Policy
A hotter-than-expected CPI may reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, delaying any rate cuts; a softer-than-expected reading would support a dovish shift, increasing confidence in cuts later in 2025.
Wednesday 13th August
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report measures the week-over-week change in commercial crude oil stockpiles in the U.S., excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, it offers timely insights into supply-demand imbalances and can move oil markets significantly.
What to Expect
Oil Prices
If inventory draws exceed expectations, oil prices are likely to rally, reflecting tightening supply sentiment; if the draw is smaller than expected or inventories build, prices may sell off on signals of weakening demand.
Energy Stocks
If the inventory decline is greater than forecast, energy equities—particularly producers and refiners—may advance, anticipating margin strength; if the draw is less than expected or stocks unexpectedly rise, energy stocks could decline amid demand concerns.
Thursday 14th August
08:30 ET
US PPI for July
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for goods and services at the wholesale level. The final demand PPI includes prices for goods, services, and construction sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government, and exports. Core PPI excludes volatile categories such as food, energy, and trade services. It serves as an early economic signal of potential inflation trends.
Summary of Last Report (June)
The final demand PPI was unchanged month-over-month, after a 0.3% increase in May. Over the prior 12 months, it rose 2.3%.
Final demand goods rose 0.3%, while services declined 0.1%—with transportation and warehousing services leading the drop.
Core PPI (final demand less food, energy, and trade services) also posted 0.0% m/m (flat) in June, versus +0.1% in May. On a year-over-year basis, core PPI increased 2.5%.
Some detail: goods inflation was led by rises in gasoline, communications equipment, meats, poultry, and tree nuts; service declines were in accommodation, airline fares, and food.
This eased PPI reading contrasts with a 2.6% YoY rise in May, indicating a cooling in wholesale inflation amid tariff-related cost pressures.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If PPI (headline or core) comes in higher than expected, equities may decline, as tighter inflation could delay Fed rate cuts; if PPI is weaker than expected, stocks could rally, anticipating acceleration in monetary easing.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected PPI reading would likely strengthen the USD, on prospects of extended Fed rate support; a softer-than-expected PPI may weaken the dollar, as markets price in softer inflation and earlier policy pivots.
Government Bonds
If PPI exceeds forecasts, bond prices may fall (yields rise) as investors anticipate prolonged rate restraint; if PPI surprises to the downside, bond prices could rise (yields fall) with easing expectations creeping in.
Federal Reserve Policy
A stronger-than-expected PPI could tilt the Fed toward a more hawkish stance, delaying any cuts; a weaker-than-expected reading may reinforce a dovish Fed bias, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts later in 2025.
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims track new unemployment benefit applications filed in the prior week. Continued Claims measure individuals still receiving benefits. These weekly metrics from the U.S. Department of Labor offer a real-time snapshot of labor-market stress and trends in unemployment.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If Initial Claims exceed expectations, equities may decline, reflecting rising layoffs and job-market strain; if they are lower than expected, stocks could rise, signaling sustained labor-market strength.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected initial claims reading may weaken the USD, as it suggests economic slowdown and lower rate expectations; if claims are softer than expected, the dollar may strengthen on expectations of continued labor resilience.
Government Bonds
If claims are higher than expected, bond prices are likely to rise (yields fall), as markets anticipate slower growth and potential policy easing; if claims are lower than expected, bond prices may fall (yields rise) as rate cuts become less likely.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger-than-expected initial claims may support a more dovish Fed stance, with earlier rate cuts priced in; weaker-than-expected claims would reinforce a hawkish tone, delaying easing until labor-market slowdown becomes clearer.
Friday 15th August
08:30 ET
US Retail Sales for July
The Retail Sales report, released monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, measures the dollar value of goods sold in retail and food services. It offers a near real-time snapshot of consumer spending trends, which account for a significant portion of U.S. economic activity.
Summary of Last Report (June)
Headline retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, rebounding strongly after a 0.9% decline in May and surpassing the forecast of approximately +0.1%.Core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) increased 0.5%, also above consensus.
Sales at motor vehicles and parts dealerships rose 1.2%, reversing a sharp decline in May. Other categories like building and garden equipment, clothing, and food services also posted gains.
Markets interpreted the rise as a positive sign of consumer support for economic growth and rationale for the Fed to delay cutting interest rates.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If retail sales come in higher than expected, equity markets may rally, signalling strong consumer demand; if sales are weaker than expected, equities could decline, reflecting softening household spending and economic slowdown.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected retail reading tends to strengthen the USD, as it supports expectations of sustained growth; a weaker-than-expected result may weaken the dollar, implying softer consumption and rate pressures.
Government Bonds
If retail sales surprise to the upside, bond prices may fall (yields rise), as markets anticipate less urgency for Fed easing; if sales disappoint, bond prices may rise (yields fall), reflecting expectations of policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger retail data could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, delaying rate cuts; weaker-than-expected sales may support a dovish shift, boosting confidence in rate reductions later in 2025.
10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment Survey & Inflation Expectations August Prelim
The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers produce monthly measures of consumer sentiment, reflecting perceptions of current and future economic conditions, and inflation expectations for one-year and five-year horizons—both widely followed indicators influencing economic sentiment and Fed forecasting.
Summary of Last Report (July 2025)
Consumer Sentiment Index: 61.7, up from 60.7 in June, its highest level since February 2025.
Index of Current Conditions: 68.0, up notably from 64.8.
Consumer Expectations Index: 57.7, down slightly from 58.1.
1‑Year Inflation Expectations: 4.5%, down from 5.0% in June—the lowest since February.
5‑Year Inflation Expectations: 3.4%, down from 4.0%, also the lowest since January.
While sentiment improved modestly in July, inflation expectations—despite declining—remain elevated above pre-pandemic norms and the Fed’s comfort zone.
What to Expect
US Stocks
If sentiment or inflation expectations are stronger than expected, equities—especially consumer-oriented sectors—may rally as consumer confidence and pricing power lift outlooks; if readings come in weaker than expected, stocks could decline, reflecting risk to spending and inflation momentum.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected sentiment and elevated inflation expectations may strengthen the USD, reinforcing growth and rate expectations; if both measures soften more than anticipated, the dollar may weaken as investor confidence and inflation risk recede.
Government Bonds
If sentiment improves and inflation expectations rise above forecasts, bond prices may fall (yields rise) reflecting higher rate risk; if indicators weaken, bond prices may rise (yields fall) amid expectations of policy easing.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger sentiment and sticky inflation expectations may bolster a hawkish Fed stance, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts; weaker consumer confidence or inflation readings could support a dovish tilt, increasing confidence in rate cuts later in 2025.
