Morning Juice – US Session Prep (13th August)

Sentiment
A rally in global stocks pressed on as mounting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts stoked risk-on sentiment and drove bond yields lower.

The S&P 500 looked set to build on Tuesday’s record close, with futures for the benchmark up 0.2%.
Most members of the Magnificent Seven tech megacaps climbed in premarket trading.
The MSCI All Country World Index advanced 0.3% to a fresh all-time high.

Bonds rose in most markets. US Treasuries climbed across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping four basis points to 4.25%. The dollar retreated 0.4%.

Equity markets are swept up in a risk-on rally as a so-far modest rise in US goods prices has tempered fears over the impact of tariffs. The data has bolstered bets that the Fed will resume rate cuts next month and act more aggressively to shield a labor market showing signs of strain.

Optimism over a softening rate stance is further buoyed by easing global trade tensions and a significantly stronger-than-expected US earnings season.

Swaps are pricing in about a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut in September, up from about 80% before Tuesday’s inflation data, with at least three more similar moves expected by June.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that “the real thing now to think about is should we get a 50 basis-point rate cut in September.”

Docket
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Forecast: -0.912M | Prior: -3.029M | Range: 2M / -4.286M

13:30 ET
Bank of Canada Meeting Minutes

Speakers
08:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin repeats his August 12th remarks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce.
Text and Q&A are expected.

11:15 ET
Trump visits the Kennedy Center and makes an Announcement.

13:00 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at monetary policy luncheon hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

13:30 ET
Fed’s Bostic speaks on the economic outlook at luncheon hosted by Atlanta Fed and Franklin County Economic Development Authority
Text is not expected, but a Q&A is, with the moderator and audience.

16:00 ET
Trump Signs Executive Orders

Earnings
16:05 ET
Cisco Systems Q4 2025 Earnings
Est. EPS: $0.98
Est. Rev: $14.63B

Good luck!