Morning Juice – US Session Prep (14th August)

Sentiment
US stocks were set to pause their advance as investors awaited a new round of economic data for clues on how aggressively the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, an outlook that has fueled a risk-on rally.

S&P 500 futures were little changed after the benchmark notched a record close for a second straight session.
Treasuries extended recent gains, with the yield on 10-year notes dropping two basis points to 4.21%.
Bitcoin retreated 1.7% from an all-time high.

A report on Thursday is expected to show an uptick in producer prices, while Friday’s retail sales figures will offer insight on US consumer health as the labor market shows signs of losing momentum.
Traders are now fully pricing in a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with some bets leaning toward a larger move following this week’s benign inflation data.

Short-dated US bond yields are hovering near three-month lows as traders ramp up bets on the first US rate cut this year.
The two-year yield, among the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, was trading around 3.67% on Thursday.

San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed back against calls for a half-point cut next month, telling the Wall Street Journal the move “would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market.”

In currency markets, the yen rose 0.6%, the most in almost two weeks, after US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expected Japan to raise interest rates to tame inflation.
Bessent said the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve in addressing prices and he expected it to hike rates.
The pound inched higher as the UK economy fared better than expected in the second quarter, raising the bar for further rate cuts from the Bank of England.

Docket
08:30 ET
US PPI for July
YoY – Forecast: 2.5% | Prior: 2.3% | Range: 2.8% / 2.3%
MoM – Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0% | Range: 0.4% / 0%
Core YoY – Forecast: 3% | Prior: 2.6% | Range: 3.2% / 2.8%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0% | Range: 0.5% / 0.1%

US Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 225k | Prior: 226k | Range: 235k / 220k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.967M | Prior: 1.974M | Range: 2M / 1.941M

Speakers
10:00 ET
Fed’s Musalem speaks on CNBC.

13:00 ET
Trump delivers remarks

14:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin participates in webinar conversation with NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris.
No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A.

Good luck!