Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 18th – 22nd August (US)

Monday 18th August
No noteworthy economic indicators

Tuesday 19th August
08:30 ET
US Housing Starts for July
Housing Starts measure the number of new residential construction projects underway in a given month, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes both single-family and multi-family units and is a vital indicator of housing market health and residential investment activity.

Summary of Last Report (June)
Total housing starts rose 4.6% month-over-month to 1.321 million units, slightly under the pace from one year ago.
Single-family starts declined 4.6% to 883,000 units, hitting the lowest level since July 2024.
Multi-family starts surged 30.6%, reaching 414,000 units, marking a sharp rebound.
Building permits edged up 0.2% to 1.397 million units, though single-family permits slipped 3.7%, with weakness concentrated in the South, West, and Midwest.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If housing starts—particularly single-family starts—come in higher than expected, equity markets may rally, especially in construction, materials, and home retail sectors. If starts are weaker than expected, stocks may decline due to concerns over residential demand and economic spillovers.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected housing start number may strengthen the USD, signaling resilient domestic activity; conversely, a weaker result could weaken the dollar, reflecting economic softness.
Government Bonds
If starts exceed forecasts, bond prices may fall (yields rise) as recession fears ease; if starts disappoint, bond prices could rise (yields fall) amid expectations of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust housing starts data could support a hawkish Fed stance, delaying rate cuts. If housing data unexpectedly weakens, it may bolster arguments for a dovish tilt, increasing the likelihood of rate reductions later in 2025.

Wednesday 20th August
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report tracks U.S. commercial crude oil stock changes (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Published weekly by the Energy Information Administration, it provides a direct gauge of supply–demand dynamics, often influencing short-term oil price movements.

What to Expect
Oil Prices
If inventories rise more than expected, oil prices may decline, reflecting eased supply concerns; if inventories fall, prices could rally as tightening supply supports bullish sentiment.
Energy Stocks
If the inventory increase is greater than expected, energy equities (e.g., integrated producers and refiners) may underperform, due to expectations of softer margins; if the inventory draw is stronger than expected, energy stocks could advance on signs of stronger demand.

14:00 ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes for the July Meeting
The FOMC Meeting Minutes are released approximately three weeks after each policy-setting meeting and offer a detailed account of the discussions, debates, and considerations of Federal Reserve policymakers. These minutes provide valuable insight into the outlook on inflation, growth, labor, and the future direction of monetary policy.

Summary of the July FOMC Meeting (Meeting: July 29–30)
The July meeting concluded with a 9–2 vote to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining the pause on rate cuts. The dissenters—Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—favored a 25 bps rate cut, the first dual dissent since 1993.
The accompanying statement highlighted a moderating economic pace, elevated inflation, and ongoing uncertainty, with the Fed emphasizing its data-dependent approach and readiness to adjust policy if risks emerge.
Powell’s post-meeting remarks left ambiguity about the timing of potential rate cuts, pushing down market expectations for a September cut, with probability falling from ~70% to around 49%.
The minutes—due Wednesday, August 20, 2025, at 18:00 UTC—will shed light on the balance of views within the committee, particularly around the growing partisan divergence and the outlook for rate cuts.
equalsmoney.com

What to Expect 
US Stocks
A dovish tilt or acknowledgment of economic slowing in the minutes could lift equities, especially in rate-sensitive sectors, while a more hawkish tone could pressure stocks, especially growth-sensitive tech.
US Dollar
If minutes emphasize persistent inflation risks, the USD may strengthen; conversely, a narrative leaning towards impending easing could weaken the dollar.
Government Bonds
Minutes signaling rate cuts could boost bond prices (lower yields); those stressing inflation risks or uncertainty could push yields higher (bond prices lower).
Federal Reserve Policy
A minute’s tone that suggests upcoming rate cuts—or leaning dovish—may bolster expectations for easing later in 2025; a wary or hawkish tone may delay expected cuts further.

Thursday 21st August
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims are the number of new unemployment benefit applications filed in the prior week. Continued Claims reflect the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits. These are weekly indicators from the U.S. Department of Labor and serve as timely gauges of labor market strength and trends.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If Initial Claims exceed expectations, equities may decline as higher layoffs signal weakening labor conditions; if they are lower than expected, stocks could rally on continued strength in employment.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected initial claims print may weaken the USD, indicating softer economic conditions; a softer-than-expected reading might strengthen the dollar, reflecting labor-market resilience.
Government Bonds
If claims rise beyond expectations, bond prices may rise (yields fall) amid fears of slower growth and easing policy; if claims come in lower, bond prices may fall (yields rise) as rate-cut hopes dim.
Federal Reserve Policy
Stronger-than-expected claims could support a more dovish Fed stance, accelerating talk of rate cuts; weaker-than-expected numbers would reinforce a hawkish tilt, delaying prospects for easing.

09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing & Services PMI August Prelim
The S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly survey-based measure of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
Manufacturing PMI reflects conditions in the goods-producing economy, including output, new orders, employment, and supply chains.
Services PMI measures business conditions in service industries such as finance, retail, and transport.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while readings below 50 signal contraction.
A Composite PMI combines both sectors, offering a broader snapshot of overall private-sector economic health.

Summary of Last Report (July 2025)
Manufacturing PMI
Final July Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (Flash: 49.5), marking renewed contraction and the weakest pace this year.
Continued decline in new orders and production weighed on the index.
Services PMI
Final July Services PMI: 55.7 (Flash: 55.2), the highest level in seven months.
Driven by strong new business growth and resilient demand across the service economy.
Composite PMI
July Composite PMI: 55.1, indicating the fastest overall private-sector expansion so far in 2025, despite manufacturing softness.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected Services PMI could lift equities, particularly consumer and service-oriented sectors; lower-than-expected readings in either PMI could weigh on sentiment, especially in industrials.
US Dollar
Stronger PMIs may boost the USD on improved growth outlook; weaker PMIs could pressure the currency lower as traders anticipate slower momentum.
Government Bonds
Strong growth signals may push yields higher on expectations of tighter policy; weaker data could pull yields down as recession risks rise.
Federal Reserve Policy
A strong Services PMI alongside solid Composite data may encourage a more hawkish Fed stance; weaker figures, especially if manufacturing drags on overall growth, may tilt policy toward a more dovish or patient approach.