Morning Juice – US Session Prep (18th August)
Sentiment
The dollar remained near a three-week low as traders awaited additional developments on a potential ceasefire agreement in Ukraine, while investors also expect hints on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and leadership when the central board meets its annual retreat later this week. Treasuries edged higher.
Fed’s Powell will speak on the economic outlook on Friday.
Traders are betting on an 80% probability that the Fed will provide a 25 BPS cut next month, having fully discounted such a move at one point last week.
The euro’s summer has been a toil for the bulls, with shortterm charts signalling exhaustion. But the longer-term shift in how the market views the euro – as a safer, more global asset – continues to anchor conviction.
PBoC suggested it’s holding back from aggressively easing monetary policy with moves such as rate cuts, even though the economy just recorded its worst month so far this year.
Docket
11:30 ET
US sells $82 bln 3-Month Bills
US sells $73 bln 6-Month Bills
Speakers & Events
12:45 ET
Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Bloomberg TV
Trump’s Schedule
Good luck!
