Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 25th – 29th August (US)

Monday 25th August
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales for July
The New Home Sales report, jointly published by the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, measures the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of single-family homes where a contract has been signed or a deposit taken within the month—regardless of completion status. It’s a timely indicator of housing demand, consumer confidence, and new residential investment.

Summary of Last Report (June)
New Home Sales: 627,000 units (SAAR), a 0.6% increase from May’s 623,000 but 6.6% lower than June 2024’s 671,000.
New Homes for Sale (Inventory): 511,000 units, up 1.2% from May and highest since late 2007; equates to a 9.8-month supply—up from 9.7 in May and well above June 2024’s 8.4.
Median Sales Price: $401,800, down 4.9% from May and 2.9% below June 2024.
The sales uptick was modest and came amid sluggish market sentiment driven by high mortgage rates. Inventory remained elevated, and prices declined—exacerbating affordability concerns.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If new home sales exceed expectations, equities—especially in housing-related sectors—may rally, benefiting from signals of strengthened consumer demand; if results fall short, they may decline, particularly in builder, material, and home retail stocks.
US Dollar
A stronger-than-expected reading could support the USD, suggesting resilient consumer activity; a weaker-than-expected result could weaken the dollar, reflecting deeply constrained housing demand.
Government Bonds
If home sales are healthy, bond prices may fall (yields rise) as investors reset rate-cut expectations; if sales disappoint, bond prices may rise (yields fall) amid increased dovish sentiment.
Federal Reserve Policy
A robust new-home sales report may reinforce a hawkish Fed stance, delaying rate cuts. Conversely, weak housing data could bolster a dovish tilt, increasing expectations for easing later in 2025.

Tuesday 26th August
08:30 ET
US Durable Goods July Prelim
Durable Goods Orders measure the dollar volume of new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as appliances, machinery, and transportation equipment. The report includes both headline and core figures (excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense). It’s a forward-looking indicator of business investment and manufacturing activity.

Summary of Last Report (June Final)
Headline Durable Goods Orders fell 9.3% month-over-month to $311.8 billion, reversing May’s strong 16.5% surge and slightly outperforming forecasts of a ~10.4% decline.
Excluding Transportation, orders rose 0.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly gain—suggesting underlying strength outside the volatile aircraft sector.
Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, excluding aircraft)—a key proxy for business investment—dropped 0.7%, down from a 2.0% gain in May, surprising markets that had expected a modest increase.
Shipments of Core Capital Goods (used in GDP calculations) rose 0.4%, signaling modest production resilience.
Unfilled Orders rose 1.0%, while Inventories climbed 0.2%, continuing steady upward trends.
This spike-and-drop pattern was largely driven by a 51.8% plunge in non-defense aircraft orders—a volatile and commodity-intensive component—while broader indicators of business investment held up reasonably well.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If headline or core durable goods metrics come in weaker than expected, equities—especially in industrials, manufacturing, capital goods, and business equipment sectors—may decline due to concerns over slowing business investment. A stronger-than-expected print could boost stocks, particularly in industrial and machinery firms.
US Dollar
Lower-than-expected results could weaken the USD, reflecting softer investment demand and reducing near-term Fed tightening expectations. Conversely, stronger durable goods data may strengthen the dollar on positive growth signals.
Government Bonds
If orders, particularly core metrics, are weaker than expected, bond prices may rise (yields fall) as markets price in slower growth and increased odds of Fed easing. Stronger data could push yields higher (bond prices lower), anticipating sustained policy restraint.
Federal Reserve Policy
A sustained drop in core capital goods orders could bolster a dovish tilt, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts later in 2025. If broader investment readings remain solid, the Fed may delay easing and maintain a more neutral or cautious stance.

10:00 ET
US CB Consumer Confidence for August
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), produced by the Conference Board, measures U.S. households’ optimism regarding current and future economic conditions, including business, labor, and income outlooks. It consists of two subindices:
Present Situation Index: Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions.
Expectations Index: Outlook for income, employment, and business over the next six months.
Readings above 100 suggest expansion, while expectations below 80 often signal recession risk.

Summary of Last Report (July 2025)
Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2, up from a revised 95.2 in June, beating the consensus forecast of around 95.9.
Present Situation Index decreased to 131.5, a dip of 1.5 points, signaling slightly weaker sentiment about the current economy.
The Conference Board
Expectations Index climbed 4.5 points to 74.4, reflecting improved short-term outlook—but still below the 80 recession-warning threshold, marking the sixth straight month under that level.
12-Month Inflation Expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from June’s 5.9% and notably from April’s peak of 7%.
Despite improvements, labor market perceptions weakened further, with job availability noting its seventh month of decline and reaching its lowest since March 2021.
July’s data indicate modest stabilization in overall confidence, tempered by lingering concerns over jobs and inflation.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A stronger-than-expected reading may lift equities, particularly sectors tied to discretionary spending.
A weaker or flat confidence read could dampen consumer-related sectors, signaling cautious spending ahead.
US Dollar
If sentiment and expectations signal better economic resilience, the USD may strengthen.
Conversely, sustained softness in outlook could weaken the dollar, suggesting slower growth.
Government Bonds
Improved confidence may weigh on bond prices (yields rise), as markets anticipate less policy easing.
Ongoing weakness could boost bond demand (yields fall), reinforcing easing expectations.
Federal Reserve Policy
Moderate uptick in confidence, paired with sticky inflation expectations, may support a neutral-to-hawkish Fed stance, delaying rate cuts.
Continued softness, especially in job outlooks, could reinforce a dovish tilt, raising the likelihood of rate relief later in 2025.

Wednesday 27th August
10:30 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report tracks the week-over-week change in commercial U.S. crude oil stockpiles (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Released every Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, it provides critical insight into supply–demand balances and often moves energy markets.

What to Expect
Oil Prices
If the inventory draw exceeds expectations, oil prices are likely to rally, reflecting tighter supply sentiment; if the decline is smaller than expected, prices may sell off, signaling weaker demand or increasing supply.
Energy Stocks
A deeper-than-expected draw could lead to a rise in energy equities, as producers and refiners may benefit from stronger margins; conversely, a shallower draw or inventory build could weigh on sector performance amid demand concerns.

Thursday 28th August
08:30 ET
US GDP & Inflation Components Q2 Second Estimate
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the U.S., adjusted for inflation. The quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth rate, presented as an annualized figure, signals economic momentum.
The Inflation Components of the GDP release include:
Gross Domestic Product Price Index: Reflects inflation across all goods and services purchased within the U.S.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index: Captures inflation in consumer spending.
Core PCE Price Index: Excludes food and energy to focus on underlying inflation trends.
These components offer insight into price dynamics embedded in GDP.

Summary of Last Report (Q2 2025 Advance Estimate)
Real GDP expanded 3.0% annualized, rebounding from a –0.5% contraction in Q1.
Key drivers of this growth included:
A sharp drop in imports, which contributed significantly to growth (exports and investment declined).
A rebound in consumer spending across goods and services.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—which excludes trade and inventories—grew only 1.2%, the slowest pace since 2022, signaling underlying softness.
Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index: +1.9%, down from 3.4% in Q1.
PCE Price Index (Headline): +2.1%, easing from 3.7% in Q1.
Core PCE Price Index: +2.5%, lower than 3.5% in Q1.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If GDP and inflation trends continue as they did in Q2—with strong headline growth but soft underlying demand—equities, especially consumer and services sectors, may rally. However, weakness in investment or final sales could temper bullish sentiment.
US Dollar
Mixed signals—robust GDP offset by soft underlying demand—may lead to modest USD strength if growth remains consistent. Nevertheless, lingering fragility could cap gains.
Government Bonds
Soft core demand and easing inflation could support bond prices (yields fall). If GDP remains robust, yields may drift higher, especially amid sticky inflation components.
Federal Reserve Policy
The disconnect—headline rebound coupled with subdued core demand—suggests a hold strategy for the Fed. Persistent softness in final sales and inflation metrics may tilt policy toward easing later in 2025, while stronger data could delay cuts.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
Initial Jobless Claims show the number of new unemployment benefit applications filed weekly and serve as a high-frequency indicator of layoffs. Continued Claims track individuals still receiving benefits in subsequent weeks and reflect the persistence of unemployment. These metrics are closely watched by markets for insight into evolving labor market dynamics.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If claims come in higher than expected, equities—especially in consumer-sensitive and cyclical sectors—may decline due to emerging weakness in employment conditions; if lower than expected, markets could rally on signs of labor market strength.
US Dollar
A higher-than-expected reading may weaken the USD, raising doubts about economic momentum; softer-than-expected claims could strengthen the dollar, reinforcing confidence in growth and sustaining rate expectations.
Government Bonds
Higher claims may result in bond price gains (yields fall), as markets price in slowing growth and easing policy risk; lower claims tend to push yields higher, reflecting less reliance on imminent Fed accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
Persistent softness, especially in continued claims, may bolster a dovish bias, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Conversely, stable or improving claims could support a hawkish tilt or at least maintain current policy.

Friday 29th August
08:30 ET
US PCE Price Index for July
The PCE Price Index, or Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. It tracks changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services, covering both direct and imputed expenditures such as employer-provided health insurance.
The Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, isolates underlying inflation trends. This index is critical for shaping monetary policy decisions.

Summary of Last Report (June)
Headline PCE (YoY): +2.6%, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the 2.5% consensus forecast.
Headline PCE (m/m): +0.3%, consistent with expectations.
Core PCE (YoY): +2.8%, steady with May, maintaining its highest annual level since February.
Core PCE (m/m): +0.3%, signaling steady inflation pressures in underlying consumer prices.
Additional Insight (Trimmed Mean PCE):
This alternative measure, which trims outlier price changes, also showed inflation at +2.6% YoY for June, matching the headline rate and reinforcing the persistence of core inflation.
Tariffs—primarily those introduced in February—are increasingly affecting price dynamics, as businesses begin passing added costs onto consumers.
Investopedia

What to Expect
US Stocks
Higher-than-expected PCE or Core PCE: Expect cautious reactions in equities due to concerns over delayed Fed easing.
Lower-than-expected readings: Could spur a rally, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors, on renewed hopes for cuts.
US Dollar
Inflation surprises may strengthen the dollar, as markets anticipate prolonged policy restraint.
A softer inflation outlook could weaken the dollar, signaling possible easing.
Government Bonds
Higher-than-forecast PCE readings may push yields higher, as rate cut expectations diminish.
Weaker-than-expected data may lift bond prices (lower yields), increasing likelihood of policy accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
June’s PCE raises the bar for rate cuts, reducing the probability of easing in September. Persistent core inflation keeps monetary policy more hawkish.

10:00 ET
University of Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations August Final
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers produce monthly insights into U.S. households’ views on economic conditions. The key indicators include:
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) — an aggregate gauge of current household sentiment and expectations, with readings below 80 suggesting elevated recession risk.
Current Economic Conditions Index (CEC) — consumers’ evaluation of the present economic and financial environment.
Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) — outlook for business conditions, incomes, and employment over the next six months.
Inflation Expectations — projections of price increases over the next year (1-year) and 5–10 years ahead (long-term).
These metrics are closely observed by policymakers and markets for insights into consumer behavior and inflation psychology.

Summary of Last Report (August 2025 Prelim)
Consumer Sentiment Index: 58.6, down from 61.7 in July—marking the lowest level in three months.
Current Economic Conditions Index: 60.9, down from 68.0.
Consumer Expectations Index: 57.2, slightly lower than July’s 57.7.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5%.
5-Year Inflation Expectations: increased to 3.9%, up from 3.4%.
These numbers reflect growing consumer unease amid inflation pressures and tariff-related cost concerns, especially impacting buying sentiment for durables.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If sentiment or inflation expectations exceed expectations, equities—especially in consumer and discretionary sectors—may decline, weighed down by heightened inflation anxiety.
If the data are less negative, markets may rally on hopes of a stabilization in consumer outlook.
US Dollar
Rising inflation expectations may strengthen the USD, as they suggest persistent price pressure and sustained Fed firmness.
Softening expectations could weaken the dollar, improving prospects for monetary easing.
Government Bonds
Inflation fears may pull yields higher (bond prices fall) as investors price in sustained policy restraint.
Softer consumer mood and inflation readings could lift bonds (yields fall), implying lower rate risk.
Federal Reserve Policy
Elevated inflation expectations and weak sentiment reinforce a cautious-to-hawkish policy stance, possibly delaying rate cuts.
Improvement in sentiment or easing inflation outlook could bolster arguments for a dovish shift later in 2025.