Week Ahead: Economic Indicators (Europe)

Hey, Traders!
For the August 25th week, here is a list of all of the major economic indicators being released during the EU Session, with a brief synopsis of what they represent and what to possibly expect from the markets in reaction.

Monday
German IFO’s
Business Climate
The German Ifo Business Climate Index rates the current German business climate and measures expectations for the next six months. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers. The index is compiled by the IFO Institute for Economic Research.
Expectations
German Business Expectations rates the expectations of businesses in Germany for the following six months. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
Current Conditions
The German Current Assessment rates current business conditions in Germany, without considering future expectations. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Thursday
ECB Meeting Minutes
An accounts of the last ECB Policy Meeting. Traders will focus on the language used, and for more insight on what policymakers opinions of the state of the Eurozone are.

Friday
French GDP
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.
GDP is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.
What to expect:
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates lacking economic activity. Bond prices will rise and yields will fall. When growth is positive and good, yields will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.

French CPI
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat’s harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.
What to expect:
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

German Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur für Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany using seasonally adjusted data. The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.
What to expect:
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending, as there’s less people working and therefore diminishes economic growth in the country. Generally, a reading above expected is seen as negative for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive.