Week Ahead: Economic Indicators 1st – 5th September (US)

Monday 1st September
US Market Holiday: Labor Day

Tuesday 2nd September
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI August Final
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is a monthly diffusion index based on a survey of ~600 manufacturing firms. It tracks five subcomponents—new orders, output, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 signals expansion; below reflects contraction, and the distance from 50 indicates the strength of that change.

Summary of Last Report (August Prelim)
Manufacturing PMI surged to 53.3 in August, up from 49.8 in July—marking its highest level since May 2022 and signaling a strong rebound.
The expansion was driven by a surge in new orders, with demand showing the steepest increase in 18 months, supported by both domestic and export growth.
Firms also noted rising cost pressures, driven by tariffs, with input price and output price indices reaching their strongest levels in over three years.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If upcoming PMI readings remain below 50, equities—especially industrials and manufacturing-related sectors—could decline on concerns about a slowdown in factory activity.
Conversely, any surprising rise above expectations could lift stocks, signaling improving demand and production sentiment.
US Dollar
A weaker-than-expected PMI is likely to weaken the USD, reflecting soft economic momentum and less urgency for Fed tightening.
If PMI comes in stronger, the dollar could strengthen amidst signs of rebound in industrial activity.
Government Bonds
A soft PMI reading generally lifts bond prices (yields fall), as it may prompt expectations of a more dovish Fed policy.
A stronger-than-expected PMI could push yields higher if markets perceive a resurgence in inflationary or rate-risk pressures.
Federal Reserve Policy
Continued manufacturing contraction may support a dovish tilt, reinforcing the case for rate cuts later in 2025.
A rebound in PMI would support a more hawkish or neutral stance, potentially delaying or scaling back anticipated Fed easing.

10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures U.S. manufacturing sector activity based on surveys of over 400 supply chain executives.
The index consolidates data on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below indicates contraction. It’s one of the most closely watched indicators for US industrial health.

Summary of Last Report
Release Date: August 1, 2025 (covering July 2025)
Headline PMI: 49.0 (Forecast 48.8, Previous 48.5)
July marked the second straight month of contraction, though at a slower pace compared to June.
New orders showed slight improvement but remained subdued, while employment weakened and prices paid rose moderately.
ISM noted mixed business sentiment, with manufacturers cautious on demand despite slight easing in supply chain pressures.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected reading (above 50 or consensus) would likely boost equities, particularly industrial and cyclical stocks, signaling improving manufacturing activity.
A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure stocks, as it points to a slowdown in the sector.
US Dollar
A strong upside surprise may support the USD, reinforcing economic resilience.
A disappointing print could weaken the dollar, as investors price in softer growth.
Government Bonds
Stronger PMI: May push yields higher as traders reduce expectations of Fed easing.
Weaker PMI: Could send yields lower as bonds benefit from growth concerns.
Federal Reserve Policy
If manufacturing rebounds, the Fed may maintain a neutral-to-hawkish stance, delaying potential rate cuts.
If contraction deepens, it increases pressure on the Fed to adopt a more dovish policy path.

Wednesday 3rd September
10:00 ET
US JOLTS Job Openings for July
The JOLTS report—published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—measures labor demand and turnover. It includes key metrics such as:
Job Openings – the number of unfilled positions that employers are actively trying to fill.
Hires – total number of new hires.
Separations – total exits from jobs, including quits, layoffs/discharges, and other separations (e.g., retirements).
This report offers insight into labor market dynamics, complementing traditional employment data with rich detail on trends in hiring and job availability.

Summary of Last Report (June)
Job Openings: Fell by 275,000 to 7.437 million, below the forecast of ~7.50 million.
Hires: Declined to 5.204 million.
Separations: Held steady at 5.060 million, with quits at 3.1 million (no change), and layoffs & discharges unchanged at 1.6 million.
Job Openings per Unemployed Worker: Approximately 1.06, down from May—a sign of a cooling labor market.
The labor market remains resilient in headline figures, but the drop in openings and hires highlights early signs of slowing momentum. Labor market “churn” is subsiding, which could hinder job access for new entrants over time.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If openings or hires are weaker than anticipated, equities—especially in cyclical or consumer-sensitive sectors—may weaken, signaling less economic dynamism.
A stronger-than-expected outturn could lift equity markets, reinforcing signs of labor demand and growth.
US Dollar
A cooling JOLTS report may weaken the USD, as it implies moderated growth and reduced Fed tightening prospects.
A firm reading could strengthen the dollar, consistent with sustained economic momentum.
Government Bonds
Softer-than-expected data may lead to higher bond prices (lower yields), in anticipation of looser policy.
Stronger figures may push yields higher, reflecting reduced easing expectations.
Federal Reserve Policy
Continued softening in labor demand (lower openings, fewer hires) may bolster a dovish Fed stance, supporting rate cut expectations.
Conversely, sustained strength could reinforce a neutral or hawkish direction, delaying easing moves.

10:00 ET
US Factory Orders for July
The Factory Orders report, published monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau, aggregates new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories across manufacturing industries.
It offers more comprehensive insight into manufacturing activity and capital expenditures than the Durable Goods report, though the latter is typically more closely followed for its timeliness.

Summary of Last Report (June)
New Orders: Fell 4.8% month-over-month to $611.7 billion, reversing the prior month’s 8.3% rise and matching economist expectations.
Year-over-Year: Still up 3.8%, showing underlying resilience.
Excluding Transportation Equipment: Orders rose 0.4%, suggesting underlying strength outside the volatile aircraft sector.
Shipments: Increased 0.5% to $602.4 billion, the second consecutive monthly gain.
Unfilled Orders: Grew 1.0% to $1,469.9 billion, continuing a persistent upward trend in backlog.
Inventories: Rose 0.2% to $945.6 billion, with the inventories-to-shipments ratio steady at 1.57.
The sharp drop in orders was driven by a plunge in commercial aircraft demand—likely linked to Boeing order pullbacks—while broader manufacturing activity outside that segment held up.

What to Expect
US Stocks
If June’s factory orders—especially core or ex-transportation figures—fall below expectations, equities in industrials, materials, and manufacturing sectors may underperform. If the strip-down shows strength, especially in shipments or unfilled orders, stocks could rebound.
US Dollar
A steeper-than-expected decline may weaken the USD, suggesting slowing growth risk; conversely, signs of resilience (e.g., in shipments) could strengthen the currency.
Government Bonds
Weak orders are likely to lift bond prices (yields fall), reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts; signs of firmness may lead to rising yields on concerns about persistent economic strength.
Federal Reserve Policy
An evident slowdown in factory orders—particularly the non-transport components—could fortify a dovish tilt and bolster arguments for easing later in 2025. Solid shipment or backlog growth could delay that shift and support a more cautious Fed.

14:00 ET
Fed’s Beige Book
The Beige Book, formally known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, is a qualitative report published eight times per year by the Federal Reserve. It aggregates anecdotal insights from each of the 12 regional Fed districts—collected from business leaders, economists, and community contacts—covering labor markets, consumer spending, manufacturing, real estate, prices, and more. This report helps inform FOMC decision-making by offering real-time sentiment across diverse U.S. economic sectors.

Summary of the July Beige Book
Across districts, economic momentum appears soft but stable, with modest gains in employment and steady—but not accelerating—consumer and business activity.
Manufacturing remains fragile across many regions; service sectors and specific pockets like IT continue to show resilience.
Prices and wages are rising modestly in most districts, with localized cost pressures tied to tariffs and supply issues.
Community-level data underscores growing stress among lower-income households, signaling ongoing affordability challenges.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stability or modest expansion in services and housing may support equities, especially in sectors tied to consumer activity.
Continued softness in manufacturing or regional weakness could weigh on cyclical stocks.
US Dollar
Balanced conditions suggest a mixed impact—persistent soft growth could weaken the dollar, while pockets of strength (e.g., services) may provide moderate support.
Government Bonds
Softness in the Beige Book could lead to bond price support (yield compression), as markets brace for sustained Fed patience.
If future editions begin signaling stronger activity, yields may drift higher.
Federal Reserve Policy
The mix of modest growth and stable inflation gives the Fed room to maintain a neutral or cautious stance, without immediate pressure to adjust rates.
Prolonged softness—especially in manufacturing or local consumer demand—could strengthen the case for easing later in 2025.

Thursday 4th September
08:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change for August
The ADP National Employment Report is a high-frequency, independent measure of monthly private-sector payroll changes—based on anonymized payroll data from over 25 million U.S. employees. Though not a forecast of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payrolls, it’s a timely signal of underlying labor trends. It also includes Pay Insights, tracking year-over-year wage changes for job stayers and changers.

Summary of Last Report (July)
Private-Sector Employment Change: Rose by 104,000 jobs in July, rebounding from a -23,000 decline in June. This gain was well above expectations (~75,000–100,000).
Industry Breakdown:
Goods-Producing: +31,000 (Construction +15,000; Manufacturing +7,000; Natural Resources/Mining +9,000)
Service-Providing: +74,000
Leisure & Hospitality: +46,000
Financial Activities: +28,000
Information: +9,000
Professional & Business Services: +9,000
Trade, Transportation & Utilities: +18,000
Other Services: +2,000
Education & Health Services: −38,000
Pay Insights: Job-Stayers: Year-over-year pay up 4.4%. Job-Changers: Pay growth at 7.0%
ADP described the data as indicative of a “healthy economy” and growing employer confidence, in part due to resilient consumer demand and easing trade pressures.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected ADP (e.g., +104,000 vs. forecasts) may lift equities, especially in consumer and service sectors.
A weaker report could trigger market declines, especially in sensitive industrial and services areas.
US Dollar
A robust ADP reading offers support for the USD, suggesting ongoing labor strength.
A softer-than-expected print could weaken the USD, highlighting economic slowdown concerns.
Government Bonds
Strong job gains may fuel higher yields (bond prices fall), as markets reduce easing probabilities.
Weaker data might push yields lower, as markets increasingly price in Fed accommodation.
Federal Reserve Policy
A rebound in private-sector hiring may reinforce a more neutral to slightly hawkish Fed tone, stalling rate-cut expectations.
If ADP reveals further weakness, it may affirm a dovish policy tilt, increasing rate-cut likelihood later in 2025.

08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, published by the U.S. Department of Labor, measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the prior week.
Initial Claims reflect new layoffs and serve as a leading indicator of labor-market health.
Continued Claims measure the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim and indicate the persistence of joblessness.
A lower reading signals a stronger labor market, while a higher reading may indicate softening employment conditions.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A higher-than-expected increase in claims typically pressures equities lower, especially in consumer-driven and cyclical sectors, as it signals a cooling job market.
A lower-than-expected reading tends to lift stocks on optimism over economic resilience.
US Dollar
Rising claims often weaken the USD since softer labor trends reduce expectations of Fed tightening.
A better-than-expected report could strengthen the dollar, reflecting economic stability.
Government Bonds
Higher claims tend to push bond prices up (yields down) as investors anticipate a more dovish policy stance.
Conversely, lower claims may pressure bond prices and lift yields on expectations of tighter policy.
Federal Reserve Policy
If claims continue to climb, it supports a dovish tilt, raising the odds of rate cuts later in 2025.
A sustained improvement in labor data could delay or reduce the magnitude of Fed easing.

08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for July
The US Trade Balance measures the difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services. A trade deficit occurs when imports exceed exports, while a trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports. It’s a key indicator of the U.S. economic relationship with the rest of the world, affecting GDP growth, currency valuations, and policy expectations.

Summary of Last Report (June)
Overall Trade Deficit: $60.2 billion, narrower than May’s $71.7 billion, largely due to a 4.2% decline in imports and a modest 0.6% drop in exports.
Goods Trade Deficit: Fell 10.8% to $86.0 billion, the smallest gap since early 2025.
Services Trade Surplus: Remained positive, offsetting some of the goods deficit.
Implications: The narrower deficit suggests slightly reduced pressure on the U.S. current account and may provide a modest boost to GDP for Q2 2025.

What to Expect
US Stocks
A smaller-than-expected trade deficit may support equities, particularly exporters and industrials, by signaling stronger net external demand.
A wider-than-expected deficit could weigh on stocks, reflecting higher import dependency and weaker external demand.
US Dollar
Narrower deficit: Likely strengthens the USD, suggesting reduced external funding needs.
Wider deficit: Could weaken the USD, as it may signal persistent reliance on imports and capital inflows.
Government Bonds
A smaller deficit may prompt slightly higher yields, anticipating stronger growth.
A wider deficit could support bonds (lower yields) as markets expect slower growth or dovish policy support.
Federal Reserve Policy
While the trade balance is not a primary driver of Fed policy, a narrowing deficit may reinforce a neutral stance, whereas a widening deficit could support arguments for more accommodative policy if it coincides with slower growth signals.

09:45 ET
US S&P Services PMI August Final
The S&P Global US Services PMI is a monthly index derived from surveys of over 400 private sector service companies.
It gauges business activity, new orders, employment, and prices in the services sector.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Summary of Last Report (August 2025 Prelim)
Services PMI: 55.4 (down from 55.7 in July)
Composite PMI: 55.4 (up from 55.1 in July)
GDP Growth Estimate: Approximately 2.5% annualized for Q3 2025
Key Drivers: Strong demand and hiring in services; manufacturing sector also rebounded sharply
Inflation Indicators: Input prices rose to a three-month high of 62.3; output prices reached a three-year high of 59.3, largely due to tariff impacts
Employment: Composite employment index climbed to 52.8, the highest since January

What to Expect
US Stocks
Positive Impact: A PMI above 55 suggests robust economic growth, which could support equity prices, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic cycles.
US Dollar
Neutral to Positive: Stronger economic data may bolster confidence in the U.S. dollar, though inflation concerns could temper this effect.
Government Bonds
Potential Weakening: Improved economic outlook may lead to higher yields as investors anticipate potential tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Policy
Considerations: The Fed may view the strong PMI and rising inflation indicators as signals to maintain or adjust monetary policy, depending on broader economic conditions.

10:00 ET
US ISM Services PMI for August
The ISM Services PMI (also known as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) is a monthly index derived from surveys of purchasing and supply executives across the US service sector.
It measures business activity, new orders, employment, and prices.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.

Summary of Last Report (July)
Services PMI: 50.1 (down from 50.8 in June)
New Orders Index: 50.2 (down from 51.1)
Business Activity Index: 50.3 (down from 51.2)
Employment Index: 46.4 (down from 47.2)
Supplier Deliveries Index: 51.5 (up from 50.8)
Prices Index: 54.3 (up from 53.9)
The slight decline in the Services PMI indicates a modest slowdown in the service sector’s growth. The decrease in the Employment Index suggests a softening in hiring, while the uptick in the Prices Index points to ongoing inflationary pressures.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Positive Impact: A PMI above 50 suggests continued expansion in the services sector, which could support equity prices, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic cycles.
US Dollar
Neutral to Positive: Stronger economic data may bolster confidence in the U.S. dollar, though inflation concerns could temper this effect.
Government Bonds
Potential Weakening: Improved economic outlook may lead to higher yields as investors anticipate potential tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Policy
Considerations: The Fed may view the strong PMI and rising inflation indicators as signals to maintain or adjust monetary policy, depending on broader economic conditions.

12:00 ET
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Weekly Petroleum Status Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides data on U.S. crude oil inventories, refinery inputs, production, imports, and exports. These figures are crucial for assessing supply-demand dynamics in the oil market.
U.S. Energy Information Administration

What to Expect
US Stocks
Positive Impact: A significant inventory draw and rising exports may indicate tightening supply, potentially supporting energy sector equities.
US Dollar
Neutral to Positive: Stronger oil prices can bolster the U.S. dollar, though geopolitical uncertainties may offset this effect.
Government Bonds
Potential Weakening: Rising oil prices can lead to higher yields as investors anticipate inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Policy
Considerations: The Fed may monitor rising oil prices as a potential inflationary risk, influencing future monetary policy decisions.

Friday 5th September
08:30 ET
US Employment Situation for August
The US Employment Situation report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides monthly data on employment, unemployment, and wages. Key components include:
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Measures the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and non-profit organizations.
Unemployment Rate: Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
Average Hourly Earnings: Tracks wage growth and inflationary pressures by measuring average pay changes.
This report is a primary gauge of labor market health and heavily influences market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Summary of Last Report (July)
Nonfarm Payrolls: +187,000 jobs, slightly above expectations (~180,000).
Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, unchanged from June.
Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4% month-over-month, +4.2% year-over-year.
The caveat to these numbers was the large downside prior revision in Nonfarm Payrolls, which was revised down to just 14k from 147k, sparking fear about softening in the labor market, which could even warrant a monetary policy response.

What to Expect
US Stocks
Stronger-than-expected NFP or wage growth could boost equities, particularly in financials and consumer-focused sectors, reflecting economic resilience.
Weaker-than-expected data may pressure stocks, signaling slower economic momentum.
US Dollar
Stronger labor data generally supports the USD, reflecting confidence in the U.S. economy and potential Fed policy tightening.
Weaker data may weaken the USD, increasing speculation of dovish Fed action.
Government Bonds
Stronger job gains and wage pressures could push yields higher (prices lower) as markets price in tighter monetary policy.
Soft payrolls or slower wage growth may support bonds (lower yields), as markets anticipate rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Policy
Robust employment and wage growth may reinforce a neutral or hawkish Fed stance, suggesting slower easing.
Conversely, weaker jobs growth could increase the likelihood of future rate cuts, as the Fed seeks to support the labor market.

08:30 ET
Canadian Labour Force Survey for August
The Labour Force Survey (LFS), conducted by Statistics Canada, provides monthly estimates of employment and unemployment. Key components include:
Employment Change: The net change of employed individuals.
Unemployment Rate: Percentage of the labour force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.
Participation Rate: Proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment.
This report is a primary gauge of labour market health and influences economic policy decisions.

Summary of Last Report (July 2025)
Employment Change: Decreased by 41,000 (-0.2%) in July, following an increase of 83,000 (+0.4%) in June.
Unemployment Rate: Held steady at 6.9%, unchanged from June.
Participation Rate: Declined by 0.2 percentage points to 65.2%.
Youth Employment: Youth aged 15 to 24 experienced a significant decline of 34,000 jobs (-1.2%).
Full-Time Employment: Decreased by 51,000 (-0.3%), while part-time employment remained relatively stable.
Provincial Variations: Notable declines in employment were observed in Alberta (-17,000) and British Columbia (-16,000), while Saskatchewan saw an increase of 3,500 jobs.
These figures suggest a slowdown in the labour market, particularly affecting youth employment and certain provinces.

What to Expect
Canadian Stocks
Potential Impact: A decline in employment, especially among youth, may signal economic challenges, potentially affecting investor confidence in the Canadian stock market.
Canadian Dollar
Potential Impact: Weak labour market data could lead to a depreciation of the CAD, as investors might anticipate dovish monetary policy from the Bank of Canada.
Government Bonds
Potential Impact: A slowdown in employment growth may lead to lower yields on Canadian government bonds, as markets price in the possibility of rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Bank of Canada Policy
Considerations: The Bank of Canada will closely monitor employment trends. A sustained downturn could prompt the Bank to consider monetary easing to support economic activity.