Morning Juice – US Session Prep (4th September)

Good Morning Traders.
It is Thursday, the 4th of September. Here is what to look out for today.

Sentiment 

Stocks and bonds rose slightly as traders increased their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates more quickly.

The cost of hedging in the currency market is rising during the summer lull, with traders bracing for larger price fluctuations before Friday’s critical US employment report.

Japan’s 30-year debt auction added to the sense of relief Thursday for global bond markets dealing with the consequences of increased government expenditure.

DeepSeek is building an AI model with more advanced AI agent features to compete with US rivals such as OpenAI in a newer frontier of technology, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Docket
8:15 ET
US ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 80k | Prior: 104k | Range: 110k / 50k

8.30 ET
US Jobless Claims
Initial – Forecast: 230k | Prior: 229k | Range: 235k / 221k
Continued – Forecast: 1.960M | Prior: 1.954M | Range: 1.981M / 1.945M
US Revisions
Labour Costs – Forecast: 1.4% | Prior: 1.6% | Range: 1.8% / 0.7%
Productivity – Forecast: 2.7% | Prior: 2.4% | Range: 3.4% / 2.3%
US Trade Balance
Forecast: $78B | Prior: -$60.2B | Range: -$59B / -$90B
Canadian Trade Balance
Forecast: -5.30B | Prior: [-5.86B] | Range: -4.26B / -6B

9.45 ET
US S&P Services PMI Final for August
Forecast: 55.3 | Prior: 55.4 | Range: 55.4 / 55

10:00 ET
Miran Senate Nomination Hearing

US ISM Services PMI for August
 Forecast: 50.9 | Prior: 50.1 | Range: 52.5 / 49.8

12:00 ET
Weekly US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for August
Forecast: -1.9M | Prior: -2.392M | Range: 500K / – 4.808M

Speakers
12.05
Feds Williams speaks at a signature Luncheon at the Economic Club of New York, sharing her views on economic outlook, monetary policy, and navigating a changing environment amid uncertainty.
Text and Q&A is expected.

Good luck!